French President Emmanuel Macron has done it. High German Chancellor Angela Merkel has done it. Yet when it was confirmed Th that President Trump would live on coming together amongst Russian President Vladimir Putin, Europeans could live on forgiven for non greeting it similar a routine get-together. After all, at that topographic point is a context. Trump is coming together Putin at a fourth dimension when he remains at odds amongst his intelligence community over Russian interference on his behalf on the U.S. election. Russia, the president tweeted Thursday, “continues to say they had cipher to create amongst Meddling inwards our Election!”—American intelligence assessments say otherwise, together with European countries themselves accept had to ground amongst Russian election interference. Trump continues to live on at odds amongst America’s European allies over issues similar merchandise policy, climate change, together with the Islamic Republic of Iran deal; inwards lite of Trump’s ambivalence nearly NATO, European leaders accept openly discussed the postulate for Europe to stand upward on its own. All of this presents a potential opening for Putin, who has long sought to dissever the Western alliance. Yet Trump has also met amongst Putin before—they spoke at length at the G20 summit inwards Hamburg concluding year, and hence again at the Asia-Pacific economical summit inwards Vietnam iv months later—even though this volition live on their outset summit. The ii are scheduled to run across July xvi inwards Helsinki (a metropolis that boasts a long tradition of hosting U.S.-Russia summits) to utter over the state of war inwards Syria, U.S.-Russia relations, together with other national safety issues. At that point, Trump volition live on fresh off a NATO summit inwards Brussels together with a long-anticipated take in to the United Kingdom.
It’s non the fact of the Putin coming together that has European leaders worried—they themselves run across amongst Putin on a regular basis. Nor is it the timing, which was anticipated given the president’s previous commitments on the continent. The work is that they cannot anticipate what mightiness come upward from the meeting. After all, Trump keeps displaying his predilection for keeping fifty-fifty the Europeans off-balance. He slapped massive tariffs on steel together with aluminum imports from the European Union together with other U.S. allies. He threatened to create the same amongst European automobiles, risking a full-blown merchandise war. He departedthis month’s Group of Seven summit early, though non before calling for Russian Federation to live on readmitted to the grouping (it was suspended for its invasion together with annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula inwards 2014); he ultimately retracted his endorsement of the attendees’ articulation communique. He has joked that the U.S. should shift its alliance amongst NATO to a case-by-case cooperation (and reportedly said the armed services alliance was “as bad every bit NAFTA,” which is a merchandise deal).
It’s this form of unpredictability Europeans fearfulness Trump volition convey to Helsinki—perhaps to their peril. “Europeans inwards full general are apprehensive non because they fearfulness an American president dealing amongst Russian Federation inwards general, but they fearfulness this item president dealing amongst Russian Federation when they don’t know ... his strategic framework,” Daniel Fried, a distinguished beau at the Atlantic Council together with a old U.S. ambassador to Poland, told me. Fried spoke concluding calendar week to European officials nearly the summit. “When he seems at odds amongst his ain direction [by] cozying upward to Putin together with when he seems really attracted to authoritarianism, that is deeply unsettling.”
There are grounds for this concern. In a historic summit amongst North Korea’s Kim Jong Un before this calendar month inwards Singapore, Trump received from Pyongyang a vague commitment to the destination of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, without a timeline specifying when this would occur. In exchange, Trump pledged to suspend armed services exercises amongst Republic of Korea together with gave Kim what was widely regarded every bit a propaganda victory: The chance to live on seen non every bit the fell dictator of a pariah state, but a legitimate fellow member of the international community.
The take away chances is perchance greater amongst soul similar Putin. Unlike Kim, Putin is no international pariah, nor is he novel to dealing amongst U.S. presidents. This president, inwards particular, has already demonstrated that he’s amenable to pomp together with flattery—something the Russian leader has no uncertainty observed together with could endeavour to exploit. “Putin tin dismiss live on charming,” Fried said. “He’s both smart together with knows the material. People fearfulness that he could easily larn Trump to acknowledge something or compass him something for non much, which isn’t practiced dealmaking—it’s existence a sucker.”
Trump, for instance, mightiness create inwards Helsinki a version of what he did inwards Singapore. He could pledge to stop U.S.-led NATO armed services exercises inwards Poland together with the Baltic states that Russian Federation opposes. He could take away to ease U.S. sanctions on Russia, without addressing the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea that caused the imposition of the sanctions inwards the outset place. (Trump reportedlyquestioned why G7 leaders were siding amongst Ukraine during their summit concluding month, adding that Crimea is Russian because everyone at that topographic point speaks Russian.)
Not everyone, though, is pessimistic. Speaking at an European Union summit inwards Brussels Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the upcoming coming together a “sign of strength” together with said it’s inwards NATO’s involvement to accept an opened upward dialogue amongst Russia. “We don’t desire a novel Cold War,” he said. Fried noted that at that topographic point are U.S. interests at play, too. “[U.S. National Security adviser] John Bolton together with President Trump are correct that at that topographic point are areas where nosotros should live on cooperating amongst Russia,” he said. “However, none of that agency that nosotros should allow upward on the pull per unit of measurement area against Russian Federation inwards reply to its aggression— against Ukraine, against Europe, against disinformation inwards election interference, together with against the United States.”
How the summit volition ultimately become could depend on Trump’s performance inwards the meetings preceding it. At the NATO summit inwards Brussels, Fried said, Europeans fearfulness Trump volition reenact his performance at the G7 summit past times railing against U.S. allies for taking wages of the the States (at the G7, this declaration concerned trade; inwards Brussels, it volition live on nearly defence spending). Trump’s take in to the U.K. is similarly foreboding, every bit mass protests threaten to pose a damper on a coming together meant to bolster a struggling special relationship.
“If Trump goes to Putin amongst a united together with relieved alliance behind his back, he could accept a success,” Fried said. “If the president goes to Putin amongst a divided alliance at his back, he’s going to live on inwards a weak seat because he volition non desire to boom out together with accept iii bad meetings. There is a danger that he would pay also much to Putin inwards the degree of unrequited concessions to larn an optically practiced meeting. I don’t reckon what American involvement is served past times that.”
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