Michael K. Nagata
The manager of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center discusses the full general province of U.S. CT efforts, the persistence of the threat, too the involve to focus on nonkinetic prevention methods. On July 10, The Washington Institute hosted a Policy Forum alongside Michael Nagata as business office of its long-running Counterterrorism Lecture Series. Nagata has served as manager of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center since May 2016. Previously, he was Commander, Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), too participated inwards the kickoff ii years of combat operations against the Islamic State. The next are his prepared remarks.
Good afternoon, too give cheers you lot for inviting me hither today to speak over U.S. counterterrorism, peculiarly alongside an midpoint toward how our patch looks strategically at protecting U.S. citizens too our interests around the globe from the threat of terrorism.
My goals today are to brand a few remarks virtually the province of U.S. counterterrorism efforts, render my perspective on what the time to come of contesting terrorism volition require, too and thence displace on chop-chop to receive got your questions.
For nearly seventeen years, the United States, inwards conjunction alongside a large pose out of its allies too partners around the world, has exerted extraordinary elbow grease too invested enormous treasure into contesting terrorism inwards its many forms. As all of you lot know, our principal focus has been on the form of international threat that organizations similar al-Qaida too ISIS pose.
During this time, the United States of America of America has sent some of its best too bravest to the farthest reaches of the globe to combat terrorist organizations too franchises inwards their sanctuaries. Along the way, nosotros receive got developed an almost dizzying array of word capabilities, tactical too operational innovations, too technological breakthroughs twelvemonth after year. As a result, all of us tin give notice too should live really proud of all that has been accomplished, non the to the lowest degree of which beingness the prevention of some other catastrophic terrorist laid on on U.S. soil similar what our patch experienced on 9/11. We rightly grieve those nosotros receive got lost along the way, too yet strive to receive got attention of those who receive got been gravely injured too wounded inwards this longest of all America's wars.
Yet, after nearly ii decades, too despite all that nosotros should rightly live proud of, the fourth dimension has come upwards to inquire ourselves some hard but necessary questions: Despite the capabilities nosotros receive got developed too the progress nosotros receive got achieved, why is terrorism today to a greater extent than widespread too complex than when nosotros began? Why has terrorism proven to live thence resilient too adaptive despite our successes too the continuing pressure level too mightiness that nosotros too the basis convey to deport against it? Just i instance of why the underlying trends of terrorism, despite our best efforts, are thence troubling is a sobering statistic derived from the Global Terrorism Database compiled past times the University of Maryland's START program: since 2010, terrorism-related fatalities worldwide receive got increased past times to a greater extent than than 300 percent, too terrorist attacks alongside associated fatalities receive got increased past times nearly 200 percent. Separately, hither at home, federal police describe enforcement has virtually a 1000 terrorism-related investigations opened upwards inwards our ain communities across all 50 states.
I am non trying to advise that our efforts receive got been fruitless. The apparently fact that at that spot has been no repetition of a 9/11-style laid on on our ain soil is a signal too of import accomplishment. The fact that nosotros receive got revolutionized our ain abilities too practices when it comes to illuminating too attacking terrorist leaders too plots is besides a large deal. That said, I would similar to percentage alongside you lot some observations that, from my perspective as both an operational practitioner for several decades too today as a Washington DC–based strategist, strike me as germane toward answering these questions.
First, where receive got nosotros been since 9/11?
The lion's percentage of our investments since 9/11 inwards developing novel CT capability too capacity has gone primarily toward the identification, illumination, targeting too tracking, and, as nosotros say inwards the counterterrorism world, "the finishing" of terrorists too terrorist plots. Our principal focus, both tactically too strategically, has been toward developing an powerfulness to eliminate terrorist leaders too pes soldiers, spell simultaneously identifying too disrupting their most unsafe laid on plans. This has driven extraordinary investments inwards novel word community capabilities, a revolution inwards state of war machine affairs when it comes to combating irregular too insurgent forces, too the creation of solely novel federal agencies focused on hardening our infrastructure, defending our borders, too investigating too disrupting tearing extremist threats inwards both our dry soil too abroad.
Second, where are nosotros now?
On the i hand, nosotros receive got developed enormous proficiency too expertise inwards CT that continues to serve us good today. Most recently, when ISIS exploded onto the basis phase inwards 2014, the United States of America of America was far to a greater extent than gear upwards too able to contend alongside too laid about the state of war machine defeat of that entity than would receive got been possible seventeen years ago.
On the other hand, the fact that ISIS all of a precipitous emerged as a strategic surprise for the United States of America of America only 4 years agone should live a sobering realization for all of us. It has compelled a large pose out of experts inside the CT community to recognize that, for all the successes nosotros receive got had, tearing extremism inwards virtually every assort continues to live resilient.
I'd similar to render 3 examples to emphasize this betoken virtually the size, capability, too resilience of terrorism today:
First—More than a decade ago, I commanded a trouble forcefulness that focused on unusual fighters who had joined al-Qaida inwards Iraq. I vividly yell upwards that nosotros were struggling to bargain alongside fighters that totaled inwards the hundreds. Since the ascent of ISIS inwards 2014, our best estimates are straightaway that inwards excess of 40,000 unusual terrorist fighters receive got flocked to its dark flag inwards that time.
Second—ISIS has been a strategic pioneer inwards at to the lowest degree ii arenas. The kickoff is weaponizing too effectively employing commercially available too affordable unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). As to a greater extent than too to a greater extent than capable technologies, such as inexpensive too affordable UAS, acquire to a greater extent than readily available to anyone alongside a credit card, the powerfulness to create highly lethal effects is no longer subject on centralized training, planning, or preparation. The other is fifty-fifty to a greater extent than dangerous, too that is the group's innovative purpose of online propaganda too social media platforms to recruit, radicalize, too mobilize individuals to violence. No longer is the creation of novel terrorists primarily subject on physical or face-to-face contact betwixt a prospective recruit too a terrorist recruiter, nor create novel recruits require extensive preparation or guidance, given ISIS's emphasis on encouraging its followers to behavior attacks inwards their dwelling trouble solid countries using uncomplicated tactics too easily accessible weapons. Consider that the truck driver inwards Nice, France, inwards 2016 was able to kill too maim as many people alongside his cargo truck as a large IED laid on could have.
Third—As many of you lot volition recall, nosotros had a notion correct after 9/11 that "we volition play such an awesome away game that at that spot volition never receive got to live a dwelling trouble solid game." Nearly xx years later, I've had to human face the distressing reality that, despite the impressive nature too enormous effectiveness of our away-game efforts, the overall displace of terrorism too tearing extremism has ultimately proven durable too resilient to our attacks. Today, nosotros are contesting an unprecedented scale of tearing extremist activities, both internationally too alongside homegrown tearing extremists.
Assuming the foregoing is reasonably accurate, today nosotros are confronted alongside the query of how to brand ourselves too our allies to a greater extent than effective inwards reducing the size, capability, too resilience of terrorism. We must uncovering a means to save today's impressive powerfulness to disrupt terrorism spell significantly strengthening our powerfulness to cut down terrorism inwards all of its forms—internationally where it threatens U.S. interests too to a greater extent than effectively inside our ain borders.
Although nosotros hold our already formidable capability to laid on too disrupt terrorist activities that threaten our interests, it is straightaway necessary for the United States of America of America to shift to a greater extent than of its investments inwards people too capability toward the nonkinetic prevention of terrorism. It may seem a footling unusual for a state of war machine special operator similar myself to brand such an argument, but similar many of my colleagues, I've been forced to human face the uncomplicated reality that attacking terrorists does not, inwards too of itself, create lasting strategic success against terrorism. It is necessary, but it is non sufficient.
I am non suggesting that nosotros cut down our investments inwards what nosotros receive got thence successfully done inwards the past times seventeen years—illuminating too effectively attacking terrorists. Nor am I suggesting that nosotros involve an equivalent investment to what nosotros receive got committed to kinetic CT. The organizations, both governmental too nongovernmental, that currently strive to preclude terrorism or terrorist activities receive got neither the absorptive capacity nor, inwards some cases, the proven methodologies today that could justify such a massive investment approach. Furthermore, the federal authorities has learned that it must live really thoughtful inwards how it supports or funds prevention programs too activities, especially alongside abide by to our intent to ensure civil too constitutional rights, personal privacy, political freedoms, too complimentary enterprise.
What I am suggesting is only this. We involve a much to a greater extent than vibrant dialogue—both inside our ain authorities too across our society—about the grade to which nosotros are willing or able to increment our investments inwards damage of financial resources, manpower, too genuine policy back upwards for at to the lowest degree v mission areas:
Becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards preventing terrorist travel, both internationally too domestically;
Becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards denying terrorists the resources they involve to piece of job too propagate their ideology;
Becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards contesting terrorist purpose of the Internet, both as a global command-and-control scheme too as an increasingly powerful radicalization instrument;
Becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards contesting terrorist ideologies, peculiarly inwards the arena of offering to a greater extent than attractive alternatives to their poisonous ideas; and
Becoming to a greater extent than effective inwards assisting local communities too families inwards identifying those vulnerable to terrorist recruitment too enabling local actors to either preclude or "off-ramp" these individuals or groups past times pedagogy them how to address their needs or grievances without resorting to violence.
It is of import that I admit that thousands of extraordinary, dedicated people—both inside authorities too across civil society—are striving to succeed inwards all v areas today. Unfortunately, at that spot are only non plenty of them, they universally endure from pregnant resources shortfalls, and—most important—they would create goodness from the constant too durable policy back upwards that kinetic CT approaches relish today.
Over the past times seventeen years, identifying too attacking terrorists too their plots receive got experienced brilliant too substantial policy support. Not everything nosotros attempted to create inwards locating or attacking them was successful, but nosotros learned from every mistake. We were willing to absorb these setbacks, publicly defend them against both domestic too international criticism, too persevere because it was thence of import that nosotros acquire how to succeed.
If nosotros are to acquire strategically successful inwards the v nonkinetic arenas I've outlined, I believe it volition receive got the same form of sustained commitment. We create non yet know all of the prescriptions, approaches, skills, capabilities, or organizational models best suited to strategically succeed nonkinetically, too it volition only live through the form of ruthless experimentation nosotros were i time willing to endure inwards our kinetic journeying that nosotros volition acquire how to live as successful inwards preventing terrorism. This volition ultimately create upwards one's hear if nosotros are able to acquire to preclude the creation of novel terrorists as good as if nosotros are able to kill or capture them today.
I volition halt at that spot too would live delighted to respond whatsoever questions you lot may have.
Thank you.
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