Sebastian Groh
A transition technology bridges the gap betwixt the onetime as well as the new. Once legacy technologies as well as incumbent trace of piece of employment organisation models halt producing the desired results, a transition agency starts. However, unloose energy technology is moving besides fast for whatever prolonged transition mode. Its speed of evolution has cost the large legacy players inwards for certain markets dearly. In Germany, for example, unloose energy companies postulate hold e'er had strong backing from the government, as well as strong leverage through their oligopoly. So piece ministers contemplated a greener future, they continued to house bets on coal as well as on atomic power. However, through a mix of strong populace persuasion - significantly reinforced past times the Fukushima disaster - as well as falling prices inwards the renewables manufacture due to technological progress, the Energiewende (energy transition) of a abrupt accelerated. The large players found themselves inwards existential crisis. Their hesitance to comprehend the novel unloose energy globe proved to last their Waterloo.
In Bangladesh, the unloose energy policy realm could non last to a greater extent than different. Yet a closer await at the 2 countries reveals enough of reach for usual learning, from past times mistakes as well as futurity technologies. Here are 3 arguments why People's Republic of Bangladesh should avoid a lengthy transition mode.
1. The danger of unloose energy lock-in effects - don’t bet on transition technologies combined alongside onetime trace of piece of employment organisation models, but leapfrog instead
Bangladesh has adopted the strongest annunciation of climate activeness - a target to purpose 100% renewable unloose energy past times 2050. It is amidst the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. But given that its electricity furnish is already unreliable - peak need cannot last met, as well as inwards rural areas only 42% of the population postulate hold access to electricity - this annunciation seems daunting.
However, Bangladesh, dissimilar Deutschland a decade ago, is clear almost where it is heading. The challenges today are whether the province tin larn from mistakes made past times others, as well as how far it tin afford to operate on betting on transition technologies. The transition technology dilemma is non simply a inquiry of letting existing fossil fuel or nuclear mightiness plants run a lilliputian longer. Rather, the bulk of such mightiness plants postulate hold non yet been built.
The province faces the really existent adventure of locking itself into outdated transition technologies as well as trace of piece of employment organisation models, ignoring lessons for which others postulate hold paid dearly. Every proposal to create a novel mightiness flora should last carefully weighed against its lifespan, as well as against the path on which the province is embarking.
2. Solar unloose energy is the superior selection based on cost, food, wellness as well as safety
By 2021, the regime of People's Republic of Bangladesh plans to prepare 13.3 GW from novel coal plants, but less than 2 GW from solar energy. Their chief justification is cost as well as availability of land. In contrast, a recent report on create clean unloose energy investment opportunities for People's Republic of Bangladesh found that in that location is far to a greater extent than utility-scale as well as rooftop solar panel potential than previously estimated. Without displacement of communities, conversion of cropland, air or H2O pollution, premature deaths, populace wellness costs or inflationary fuel prices, rooftop solar panel systems on commercial as well as residential buildings could provide 17% of electrical flow peak need (2 GW) at dozens of urban locations across the country.
3. People's Republic of Bangladesh has been a novel unloose energy pioneer all along
The novel unloose energy globe is fuelled past times the 5Ds: decarbonization, decentralization, democratization, digitization as well as disruption. Since the Paris Agreement, in that location is a full general global consensus on how this decarbonization procedure volition shape upward inwards coming years. Moreover, the to a greater extent than the globe community is exposed to the adverse effects of climate change, the to a greater extent than it volition comprehend novel energy.
As the planet decouples carbon emissions from economical growth, the onetime epitome of centralization - where electrical mightiness is produced far away from where it is used - volition also change. This volition choose a democratization of unloose energy generation as well as consumption, where prosumers volition last the key actors disrupting conventional trace of piece of employment organisation as well as delivery models, empowered through digitization that allows automated payment for electricity trades. In The 3 Stages of a Country Embracing Renewable Energy, Christoph Burger as well as Jens Weinmann dissever this transition path into 3 phases, at a province level:
First phase: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 province focuses mainly on promoting renewable unloose energy sources, perchance alongside secondary objectives of establishing a domestic manufacturing base.
Second phase: The portion of renewables inwards the unloose energy mix reaches a storey where grid operators postulate hold to intervene to a greater extent than often to maintain the grid inwards balance. The landscape of utility companies is undergoing pregnant transformations.
Third phase: The electricity furnish manufacture sees first-hand how their sector is transformed from existence a populace infrastructure towards a genuinely soul one, where solutions are customized for each producer as well as consumer.
The full general consensus would house People's Republic of Bangladesh behind the showtime phase, given its mediocre total installed renewable unloose energy capacity to date. Deutschland would last inwards the 2nd phase, as well as then far no province inwards the globe would last inwards the 3rd phase.
I disagree. I would position People's Republic of Bangladesh inwards all 3 phases at the same time. Public discourse focuses on problems described inwards the 2nd phase. However, the province hasn’t fifty-fifty seriously started to comprehend the showtime phase, despite strong political commitments. Incumbent regime institutions contend to displace past times the legacy mandate of grid extension at whatever cost. This ground exacerbates economical pressure level on communities trapped on the waiting listing for a grid connector that is often inferior to that which a solar arrangement tin offer.
Nevertheless, piece this ground rages inwards the national hubs, rural People's Republic of Bangladesh has quietly joined the global avant-garde inwards embracing the 5Ds. Many villages postulate hold jumped ahead really rapidly as well as embarked direct on the 3rd phase. Under the leadership of the Infrastructure Development Company Ltd. (IDCOL), to a greater extent than than twenty 1000000 people today make their ain electricity from completely decentralized solar dwelling trace of piece of employment solid systems. Recent studies demo that, on average, the quality of their electricity furnish is superior to that of the national grid inwards side past times side areas. So why is the province trying to jump dorsum from the 3rd stage to the showtime phase?
While the political arena inwards Dhaka is withal stuck inwards intelligence on a net-metering policy, it is startling that inwards rural Bangladesh, solar peer-to-peer microgrids, based on existing solar dwelling trace of piece of employment solid systems, have long been established. This is a micro unloose energy transition, then to speak. Power tin menstruation freely betwixt houses as well as small-scale businesses, all necessary appliances tin last run, as well as surplus mightiness is traded based on net-metering as well as mobile coin inwards real-time. Overnight, remote villagers operate solar entrepreneurs, trading electricity for income. These rural Bangladeshis are the prosumers, having embraced the 5Ds as well as the total cycle of the 3rd phase.
The global unloose energy transformation tin no longer last stopped. The inquiry is: what volition crusade it - community initiative, entrepreneurial disruption or adaptation past times traditional suppliers? Manufacturers as well as businesses non exclusively postulate hold to confront it, but care it effectively. National as well as industrial competitiveness is at stake. The unloose energy transition inwards Deutschland was a societal movement, initiated past times its citizens, as well as exclusively afterwards did political calculus pave the agency for larger uptake of renewables. If the people inwards the upper-case missive of the alphabet of People's Republic of Bangladesh understood the benefits of solar the agency people make inwards rural areas, a similar momentum could last gained. And alongside it, a giant leapfrog over transition phases.
ME SOLshare Ltd is a fellow member of the World Economic Forum's 2018 storey of Technology Pioneers. Explore this year's total cohort of Technology Pioneers here.
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