By LUCJA SWIATKOWSKI CANNON
Our Paul McLeary is traveling amongst Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to the NATO Summit inwards Brussels this calendar week then we’ll go providing in-depth alliance coverage leading upward to RIAT together with Farnborough together with during President Trump’s European visit. Tomorrow, we’re publishing unopen to other NATO slice past times Michael Matlaga of CSIS. In keeping amongst all that, nosotros offering this intriguing telephone telephone for changes to NATO’s command together with command system. Sen. John McCain identified this every bit a cardinal displace for the summit inwards a declaration Tuesday. He too reminded us of what actually matters inwards the electrical flow atmosphere: “I promise that during the upcoming summit nosotros volition maintain to see progress on command construction reforms, novel initiatives aimed at countering terrorism together with enhancing readiness, together with renewed back upward for the Open Door policy through accession talks amongst Macedonia. These developments volition post a stronger message of NATO’s commitment to collective defence than whatever tweet.” Read on to taste writer Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon’s arguments on NATO C2. The Editor. This week’s coming together of NATO heads of nation together with authorities inwards Brussels volition beak over goals of reform of the NATO command construction together with increased resources for cybersecurity. But it is non planning to beak over the virtually of import number – compatibility betwixt the state of war machine commands of dissimilar countries inside NATO, peculiarly those of the quondam Warsaw Pact. These commands incorporate elements of the old Soviet arrangement that are problematic for NATO, especially during the fourth dimension of state of war or crisis.
The Soviet arrangement of state of war machine command was described past times Ryszard Kuklinski, a Polish state of war machine liaison betwixt Soviet together with Polish General Commands who became an American spy together with defected to the U.S. inwards 1981. The Soviets stripped the Warsaw Pact countries of command over their ain armed forces together with hence of their national sovereignty. This was formalized inwards a document, “Statute of the United Armed Forces together with the Organs for directing them inwards Time of War.” The cardinal characteristic of this construction was dual command of the armed forces. In fourth dimension of state of war or the threat of war, command over the East European forces was taken over past times the Soviet General Staff, without permission or fifty-fifty cognition of the East European communist governments.
Democratic transformations afterward collapse of the Warsaw Pact established a civilian command of the state of war machine together with abolished dual command structures. However, mightiness struggles betwixt the entrenched communist elites together with exterior reformers resulted inwards uneven progress inwards dissimilar countries together with sometimes a regression.
In 2014, Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski, known for his Russian sympathies together with Soviet-educated advisers, brought dorsum a dual command construction for the Polish armed forces. Komorowski’s Bureau of National Security signed a cooperation understanding amongst the National Security Council of the Russian Federation on 1 Feb 2011. Apparently every bit a outcome of this collaboration, he re-established a dual command structure. Such a construction lacks clear lines of authorization together with has 2 centers of competing commands, impacting state of war machine effectiveness. At worst, it could outcome inwards an bear witness to remove hold over the command of the Polish armed forces past times hostile agents at a fourth dimension of a crisis or war.
The electrical flow conservative authorities of the Law together with Justice Party wants to reestablish a unified command. But the proponents of the dual arrangement are defending it vigorously together with they found an ally inwards President Andrzej Duda, who must sign whatever legislation. While he concedes that the electrical flow arrangement is chaotic together with supports unopen to modifications, he wants to retain the essence of the dual system. The standoff on these issues betwixt Poland’s president together with Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz resulted inwards his dismissal inwards January.
The novel minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, lately presented his ain proposal on the reform of the command structure. It eliminates the virtually egregious features of the dual arrangement – numerous layers of state of war machine bureaucracy for fourth dimension of state of war together with peace. It concentrates cardinal authorization inwards the Chief of General Staff inwards fourth dimension of peace. The Chief of General Staff volition go nether the political authorization of the Minister of Defense inwards fourth dimension of peace together with the president inwards fourth dimension of war.
In fourth dimension of war, the Chief of General Staff would automatically larn the Supreme War Commander without waiting for President’s nomination every bit previously. However, he would all the same command Polish forces, such every bit Army, Navy, Air Force together with Special Units, through the General Commander for peacetime together with Operational Commander for wartime, thus retaining the essence of the old dual system. Therefore, he would go solely a liaison betwixt political authorities together with operations of the armed forces. In addition, these commanders are nominated past times the president who would go tempted to bypass the Chief of General Staff during wartime.
The electrical flow authorities is aware of this weakness together with plans to abolish them sometime inwards the future. But this is non presently enough. It solely has a brusk fourth dimension to the adjacent election together with is nether intense assail from the leftist opposition together with the European Union. Further reforms inwards this expanse are non a priority together with failure to enact them, would automatically save the dual command system, vulnerable to confusion or interference inwards the virtually decisive moments of a crisis.
The Russian strategy of hybrid warfare aims to reach the mightiness to boom a decisive blow at the enemy: that is to destroy NATO mightiness to command its ain forces together with sow confusion inwards its ranks. The Russian state of war machine is creating special units whose finish is to destroy political together with state of war machine command centers at every level. In illustration of Russian success inwards this task, the state of war could go over earlier Western troops exit of the barracks.
The performance of Polish together with East European forces at a fourth dimension of state of war together with crisis depends non solely on their numbers together with technological modernization but too the effectiveness of their ain commands together with their cooperation amongst NATO. The uncertainty, vulnerability together with confusion that tin outcome from dual command controls together with their incompatibility amongst NATO seriously hamper the East European forces. The NATO summit should review the command structures of its members together with their compatibility at a fourth dimension of war. It should non go confronted amongst this number at a fourth dimension of an existential crisis.
Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a longtime analyst of NATO, nuclear weapons together with related strategic issues. She’s been a senior investment advisor for much of the final fifteen years.
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