BY CHARLIE DUNLAP, J.D.
On Apr 24, 2018 my friend, US of America Army Major Matt Cavanaugh, delivered the remarks below to the 2018 US of America Army War College (USAWC) 29th Annual Strategy Conference. This year’s theme was “Strategic Leadership 2030: Transcending Challenges inwards a Time of Deep Change.” One of the missions of LENS is to assist to build the side past times side generation of national safety leaders, as well as component subdivision of doing that is giving them a vocalism inwards a diversity of venues, including Lawfire. I urge yous to seize this chance to larn some insights close the hereafter of military machine leadership from ane of the Army’s most bright immature thinkers. Some to a greater extent than context: The panel on which Matt served included USAWC Professor Chuck Allen as well as doc Sarah Sewall of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. It was asked to address the next questions: Question/Prompt: What volition it hateful to hold out a leader inwards the novel environment? What does the MacArthur, Marshall, or Eisenhower of 2030 expect like? Does the USAWC build of strategic leaders, theorists, as well as practitioners all the same brand sense? What volition strategic leadership need inwards a ‘post-truth’ environs saturated alongside autonomous systems, pervasive transparency, as well as artificial intelligence?
A (very) slightly modified version of Cavanaugh’s remarks follow.
Before I begin, you’ll remove to indulge my payments on a duo of intellectual debts.
I owe groovy populace cheers to 2 individuals’ correct here, inwards this real room.
In 2009, doc Sewall said, “we lack the tools to jurist military machine leadership.”
And inwards 2012, doc Metz wrote: “It is fourth dimension for Americans to call upwards deeply close the skills their senior military machine leaders must have, otherwise nosotros endangerment identifying those skills through the failures of military machine leaders who lack them.”
These triggered something for me. Provoked questions: What makes groovy generals? What accounts for successful military machine supreme commanders?
These 2 grains of gunpowder helped burn the starter’s pistol on my PhD dissertation, some of which I’m close to part alongside you. And thence I owe them a debt of thanks.
When yous read upwards on generalship as well as supreme command, yous abide by myths everywhere. Here’s ane lieutenant colonel’s definition from 2013:
“True generalship is an powerfulness to borrow elements of Patton’s technical military machine competence as well as the moral pureness of Gandhi, mixed alongside Bill Clinton’s artful communication, Ryan Crocker’s diplomatic savvy, as well as George Kennan’s strategic acumen – inwards other words, to guess a fraction of the soul of George Marshall.”
That’s a “Great Captain’s” Twitter bio for you. (Or God’s). And I didn’t brand that up. Somehow, it fifty-fifty smells wrong.
I call upwards inwards the Army we’re frequently guilty of a softer, subtler mythology – an over-focus as well as obsession alongside a generalized “leadership.
I was only at West Point, where inwards rapid succession I heard the Command Sergeant Major state he wanted to build “leaders of character.” The Commandant told the cadets to “be a leader.” And the Superintendent said he wanted West Point to hold out the “prime leader evolution establishment inwards the world.”
We purpose the word “leader” thence much as well as thence frequently that I worry it’s function a military machine version of “LOL” or “FOMO.” An empty catchphrase.
It’s non only us inwards uniform. Historian Jeremy Black, inwards answering the question, “How [George] Washington Won [the Revolutionary War],” ultimately provided a one-word answer: “leadership.
But leadership is constant. At war, both sides remove leaders. Both sides remove a supreme commander.
The ameliorate interrogation is: What characteristics differentiate successful leadership from unsuccessful leadership, as well as successful supreme ascendency from unsuccessful supreme command? (That was my dissertation topic (or, every bit I sometimes telephone hollo upwards it, “How I spent 5 poor years locked inwards a room past times myself.”)
So I laid upwards out to, every bit British historian Sir Michael Howard has put it, “demythologize” supreme command. (And, at the same time, respond Drs. Sewall as well as Metz’s productive provocations.)
What did I abide by that made the difference?
It wasn’t textile factors (weapons or stuff). It wasn’t luck. And their adversaries were competent.
The deviation was superior judgment as well as decision-making. When I looked at the performance of 3 supreme commanders that had steered wars to successful conclusion—over periods where the conflict powerfulness remove gone a real unlike way—Washington inwards 1776 as well as into 1777, Grant inwards 1864 through the election that November, as well as Eisenhower inwards 1944 until the Allies took Paris—their judgments were objectively ameliorate than their unsuccessful adversaries.
Different strategies. Different fourth dimension periods. Different state of war aims. All changed, spell a careful reading of the dispatches as well as memorandums as well as decisions of the supreme commanders on both sides—I flora superior judgment remained the most of import factor.
Military supreme commanders brand decisions; decisions brand history.
Supreme commanders deed every bit determination funnels for their side: ideas, opinions, options as well as courses of activity motion into the top—and only ane strategic selection comes out the narrower, bottom end. This is inwards draw alongside what Sunday Tzu described at the cease of Chapter 6 of The Art of War—military ascendency akin to shaping as well as harnessing the powerfulness of water.
Let’s position a pivot inwards that thought for forthwith – senior generals every bit determination funnels – as well as let’s plough to development, or, edifice that funnel.
Which leads to the age-old question: How practice yous educate a general? Based on my research: You can’t. At least, non entirely. They remove to practice it themselves. My finding was that informal self-study mattered much to a greater extent than than formal education.
Think podcast-listening, newspaper-reading, as well as essay-writing—over degrees attained as well as diplomas achieved. That doesn’t hateful nosotros throw away military machine schools. But a successful supreme commander the War College cannot solitary make.
And to tackle the betoken Dr. Metz only raised [in his conference opening remarks], tin toilet the “assistant managing director of CarMax” brand a groovy supreme commander?
General Stanley McChrystal’s also made that example when he said: “I’ve dealt alongside a lot of [CEOs] who could walk inwards as well as hold out full general officers inwards the military machine tomorrow…because they solve problems as well as they Pb people.”
But that’s wrong. Apologies to McChrystal, as well as the leadership at the local CarMax on the Carlisle Pike, but generalship as well as supreme ascendency are different. To sell a car, ane doesn’t remove to pass human lives; to seal a deal, a businessperson doesn’t remove to kill anybody (unless you’re Russian).
Based on my research, successful supreme ascendency as well as generalship includes both aptitude as well as acculturation. War is unique. Success demands familiarity, which means, sad CarMaxxers as well as “office warriors,” no 4th star for you.
What does this hateful for 2030?
Let’s render to Michael Howard, who has noted that when novel generations remove “no personal memory” of a previous war—it brings on “all kinds of…problems.”
How volition emerging generations touching on generalship?
In 2030, the “Greatest Generation” volition hold out dead; the Baby Boomers volition hold out retired.
Generation X, volition hold out the generals (of which I am proudly ane of the youngest members). Millennials volition hold out patch grades as well as Generation Z (my kids) volition hold out our cadets as well as fellowship commanders. (On the summation side, there’s some existent military machine talent inwards this generation. My three-year-old missy Georgie volition brand yous forget Patton, as well as my six-year-old missy Grace volition brand yous beg for mercy.)
But there’s a flashing reddish lite there—though Faulkner said the past times is never really past, the Cold War as well as what came earlier volition hold out dead to our entire senior military machine leadership. No sense alongside earthquakes of extreme violence or genuinely global, groovy powerfulness wars (even the mutual coldness ones).
If our professional person sin of the past times generation was forgetting counterinsurgency, thence large state of war amnesia looms large inwards 2030.
This matters because the “future’s non what it used to be,” every bit Yogi Berra in ane lawsuit said. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 generation ago, nosotros thence saw ameliorate days when the Wall came down; a generation ahead, nosotros forthwith meet scarier days when “one of us tin toilet kill all of us,” according to one widely-read columnist.
As alongside all generational shifts, hereafter leaders volition hold out prisoners of the problems of their day, but also blind to some of the problems of the past.
I call upwards the funnel metaphor volition all the same apply inwards 2030—senior generals as well as supreme commanders volition all the same closed alongside as well as destroy hereafter enemies alongside superior decisions.
But I call upwards the funnel has, as well as volition function on to get, wider on both ends. There are to a greater extent than options. And a wider attain of choices.
The funnel volition also expect different—shaped past times the times, as well as painted alongside 5 unlike emerging colors. [Note: what follows is heavily based on a previous essay at the Modern War Institute’s site.]
Strategic leaders of the hereafter volition hold out to a greater extent than global. All major American allies are inwards demographic reject (particularly Korea as well as Japan). This volition forcefulness countries to part burdens. It’s ane thing to non desire to pass blood or treasure, it’s some other thing alone to non remove plenty immature people to spend. This volition hateful to a greater extent than multinational operations, overseas assignments, as well as international engagement.
Strategic leaders of the hereafter volition hold out to a greater extent than technical. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 flip-phone heed won’t cutting it inwards a 5G world.
Narrative volition affair to a greater extent than to hereafter strategic leaders. Getting the other side to believe inwards your even out matters to a greater extent than than it used to forthwith that everybody has access to unlimited information. Harry Truman in ane lawsuit said “leaders are readers.” But I’d add together successful leaders are writers (and readers). Speed may kill, but storytellers win.
Strategic leaders of the hereafter volition hold out to a greater extent than meritocratic. Public belief inwards the old, experienced WASP manful individual at the caput of an establishment has been shaken; the American people remove grown to a greater extent than comfortable alongside immature (and different) leaders inwards positions of power. We should reckon speedier (and other) pathways to strategic positions.
Strategic leaders of the hereafter volition hold out to a greater extent than female. First, to a greater extent than frequently than non speaking, women are outperforming men inwards nearly every educational category. As I mentioned, I was only at West Point, where I saw the Pershing Award handed out—recognition of the transcend senior/firstie essays on officership—four of the 6 awardees were women…the First Captain, or top-ranked cadet, is a woman…in a pupil trunk that’s less than 25% woman individual as well as rise fast forthwith that the fighting exclusion policy is gone.
Second, the way women are perceived past times society, our real strategic culture, has changed—from the movies, to elite military machine schools, to the selection of the outset woman individual combatant commander.
More women volition hold out run the show. The Mac of 2030 may sport sensible earrings instead of a corn-cob pipe; the side past times side Marshall may remove sleeve tattoos; as well as the novel Eisenhower may really hold out a “Chan” or “Chavez.”
Leadership or superior judgement?
As a final, deliberately provocative thought, spell I call upwards leadership matters, I practice desire to position a large stick of dynamite on the thought that “leadership” wins wars. It’s non leadership. It’s superior judgment, relative to our adversaries (or, every bit FM 6-22 “Army Leadership” powerfulness telephone hollo upwards it, “intellect.”). This should hold out our highest professional person touchstone as well as how nosotros jurist military machine leadership.
That’s what Washington, Grant, as well as Eisenhower tin toilet learn us. War is every bit much a clash of judgments every bit a clash of wills.
If state of war is a gamble, thence it matters who’s making the bets—and since I started alongside a debt, I’m finishing alongside a bet. I remove these casino price advisedly, to reinforce the betoken that earlier nosotros curl the atomic release 26 dice, we’d ameliorate call upwards difficult close who’s calling the military machine shots.
Which is why I’m thence grateful to hold out component subdivision of this of import discussion. Thank you!
Major ML Cavanaugh is a non-resident beau alongside the Modern War Institute at West Point, He has been the youngest recipient of the Army Strategist Association’s professional person award, the Order of Saint Gabriel the Archangel (2015), as well as volition consummate his PhD on supreme ascendency as well as international relations inwards 2018. His writing has appeared inwards the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, as well as USA Today. He co-edited the forthcoming book, alongside author Max Brooks, Strategy Strikes Back: How Star Wars Explains Modern Military Conflict.
This try is an unofficial human face of opinion; the views expressed are those of the author as well as non necessarily those of West Point, the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or whatever agency of the US of America government.
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