Christopher Flaherty
Introduction
A dynamic champaign of weapons options available to terrorist, extremist or tearing attackers, stand upwards for a spectrum. The utilisation of highly complex weapons to the utilisation of uncomplicated weaponization of common, in addition to everyday items. The defense forcefulness against these varied threats needs to follow an elastic laid of options rather than a lineal progression from the uncomplicated to the complex external hardening of inner-city massed world events. Organised past times community groups, these events involve differing levels of security, betwixt which a gap tin toilet develop betwixt policing in addition to security workers, in addition to the vast publish of world volunteers used to organise the event. Viewed inward price of tactics, techniques in addition to procedures (TTPs) analysis, this article reviews the work of how gaps inward security occur during inner-city massed world events in addition to explores a possible solution past times augmenting established security with a dynamic defense forcefulness approach.
Inner-City Massed Public Events
The key security work unlaying inner-city massed world events is coordination, in addition to data period of time betwixt a large lawsuit piece of work force. Large-scale street events tin toilet occupy many foursquare kilometres of major inner-city precincts. Largely inward the hands of community in addition to local regime the organisation of these events in addition to fourth dimension duration tin toilet involve non only thousands of participants, in addition to million+ onlookers, inward add-on to a few chiliad police, paid lawsuit security, in addition to the utilisation of large contingents of volunteer stewards to piece of work at the event. The electrical flow tendency inward security planning for these events has seen ever deeper deployment of route blocking, in addition to anti-vehicle barriers, in addition to the banning of unauthorised vehicle traffic for the duration of events, that lock downward much of the metropolis middle in addition to its carry infrastructure. In well-nigh places, the lawsuit footprint is marked-out with provisional fencing occupying a large physical space.
Within the traditional lawsuit footprint these spaces are typically inward the hands of the lawsuit staff, embedded contingent of police pull pes patrolling, ambulance in addition to emergency workers, paid lawsuit security in addition to a diversity of volunteer stewards, acting as crowd controllers who stimulate got a primary business office to hold barrier security, all ensuring crowd onlookers do non travel inward the lawsuit space. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 lack of communication, coordination, in addition to fifty-fifty lack of skills in addition to confidence tin toilet Pb to a telephone commutation gap inward the overall security.
Within the lawsuit infinite itself at that topographic point tin toilet live thousands of parade, sporting or other participants, which at times may live to a greater extent than tightly packed together along a department of street of only a few chiliad square-meters, awaiting their turn, than the crowds along a street lawsuit viewing the event. According to U.K. lawsuit guidance the suggested security crowd limits, ‘are typically assessed at 2 people per foursquare metre’ (Still, 2018); inward many cases the overload of participants occupying closed-in streets tin toilet easily travel past times this limit; in addition to to a greater extent than significantly this over-crowding province of affairs tin toilet terminal for a few hours, awaiting forrard segments of a parade to move-off. Dense-packing of participants tin toilet Pb to an inversion of the potential for crowd-crush. Typically, Blue Planet security model is focused on event-onlookers, non the work of event-participants beingness involved inward a crowd-crush incident. In short-duration events this work of event-participant crowd-crush is less likely, whereas inward the long-duration lawsuit (such as a day-long, or night-long) where it may require the event-participant to remain in-situ, the risks of potential problems tin toilet start to rise. The secondary work organisation is that leaving large numbers of lawsuit participants crowded together creates a target chance for an attacker.
Dynamic Field Of Defence Against Varied Weapons Options
The type of weapons used (and what constitutes one) tin toilet dramatically shift for a diversity of reasons in addition to circumstances, fifty-fifty the beliefs, in addition to behaviours alongside various attackers tin toilet touching the conclusion to utilisation 1 weapon, over another, or to weaponize (Flaherty, 2018; 2012). The choice of assail tin toilet oscillate betwixt using uncomplicated or complex weapons, or the weaponization of something. The dynamic champaign of weapons options creates asymmetric possibilities for an assailant that bespeak to live factored into counter-measures.
Figure 1: Illustrates an attackers’ utilisation of weapons in addition to weaponization moved betwixt 4 fields, offering a spectrum of options, inside which some other bike operates establishing a defense forcefulness against these varied threats.
The attackers’ champaign of weapons options oscillates betwixt 4 options (Flaherty, 2018):
A-Quarter. Represents the endeavor to reproduce or replicated existing weapons technology, such as explosive devices.
B-Quarter. Represents the endeavor to do novel in addition to unknown weapons that operate as an asymmetric wages over conventional counter-measures.
C-Quarter. Represents the utilisation of conventional pocket-size arms in addition to lite weapons.
D-Quarter. Represents the weaponized utilisation of everyday items that conventionally are non weapons at all, nevertheless are used as weapons.
A-TO-C QUARTER: Represents the 2 competing efforts - an attackers’ endeavor to reproduce or replicated existing weapons technology, such as explosive devices. Historically, the utilisation of these types of assail stimulate got led the creation of various security measures. In this instance, an effective security regime is established. This same laid of security measures are also effective against the alternative province of affairs where attackers travel along to utilisation conventional pocket-size arms in addition to lite weapons, which could foreseeably live countered past times the established security.
B-TO-D QUARTER: Represents an attackers’ endeavor to do new, or unknown weapon that operate as an asymmetric wages over conventional counter-measures. In this category, existing security arrangements do non hide the explicit threat posed past times the unknown weapon. This is an instance of where, fifty-fifty though at that topographic point is a security regime inward place, these measures neglect to operate inward regard to the unknown weapon, giving the assailant an chance to assail where at that topographic point is effectively no security inward place.
Within the D-QUARTER, the continuing physical care for of devolution occurs where everyday objects are used that conventionally are non weapons at all; are weaponized using whatever available item as a weapon, as long it as it tin toilet crusade injury or fifty-fifty kill a person. The utilisation of an item, fifty-fifty if something non conventionally seen as a weapon is non uncommon, as virtually whatever implement tin toilet live used to assail a someone offensively as a weapon in addition to crusade bodily harm. This scenario leaves opened upwards the possibility of an assail fifty-fifty where security is inward place, as this fails to operate, as it does lilliputian to counter an assail as the item to live used as a weapon fails to heighten whatever concerns, in addition to therefor is non challenged as it is brought into the lawsuit space, or at that topographic point is no agency to halt it entering the lawsuit space. For instance, the utilisation a auto on a busy street which is of a precipitous used past times an assailant inward a ramming-attack past times swerving onto a footpath, in addition to into pedestrians. In this case, fifty-fifty though at that topographic point is a substantial degree of world security, such as CCTV in addition to police pull patrolling this nevertheless fails to offering whatever counter to the auto beingness used without warning.
The dynamic utilisation past times attackers of weapons in addition to weaponization items leads to possible extremes: the lawsuit has proper security coverage; or it does not. In effect, security at an lawsuit moves betwixt 2 polar extremes:
Figure 2: Represents the 2 polar extremes that offering a defense forcefulness against these varied options or no defence. This basic model tin toilet live farther modified that various security layers inside the same lawsuit tin toilet either stimulate got security, or non stimulate got security. An alternative scenario tin toilet also live envisaged where the established security only screens-out a detail threat, such as stopping a vehicle-borne IED but allows a someone through carrying a pocket-size portable IED which the instant degree of security at the combat barrier does non halt either.
Security Response Gaps
Typically, a two-step physical care for guides security reactions during an event:
Table 1: Two-step security reaction process. (Commonwealth of Australia, 2017)
The utilisation of volunteers to contend crowds is a mutual characteristic of inner-city massed world events, their role includes providing information, assisting people getting access to the event, moving crowds along, in addition to organising the lawsuit participants. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 key wages with the utilisation of volunteer crowd stewards is that these are inward constant contact with participants, in addition to onlookers, as good managing the barriers in addition to gate-entry into the lawsuit area. These volunteers effectively assort the kickoff line of surveillance (even if at that topographic point is extensive CCTV inward the area):
“Employees working inward crowded places in addition to members of Blue Planet are oft best placed to break suspicious behaviour. It is of import that owners in addition to operators of crowded places do everything they tin toilet to heighten awareness of possible suspicious behaviour alongside those using their sites.” (Commonwealth of Australia, 2017)
Typically, a volunteer crowd steward does non stimulate got whatever radio communications; they are express to vocalization over the dissonance of the street in addition to the din of the parade (Flaherty, 2011). It is acknowledged that:
“everyone has a responsibleness to written report suspicious behaviour to the authorities.” (Commonwealth of Australia, 2017)
A potential gap that tin toilet arise, is that 2 different communication systems operate during inner-city massed world events; the volunteers rely on straight sight in addition to vocalization contact; whereas police pull pes patrols in addition to paid lawsuit security are subject on CCTV for initial detection in addition to warning scheme to straight their operations via radio. The volunteer crowd stewards are oft inward only speech communication with a head-steward, who has radio communications with the lawsuit management team. It is via this communications limb that the lawsuit management squad tin toilet contact police pull pes patrols, or straight paid lawsuit security to take-over where the steward has seen a problem.
Realistically, if a serious work was to arise, inward well-nigh cases volunteers are instructed to brand straight contact (while trying to written report an incident upwards their ain chain-of-command) with the paid lawsuit security, or fifty-fifty the police. In some jurisdictions, however, straight contact is non ever possible. Alternatively, a lack of skills in addition to knowledge, in addition to the lack of confidence to brand an approach initially blocks possible assistance; leading to a gap inward security opening.
Deterministic Security Planning
A deterministic security programme is based on a prior assessment that a for sure type of assail is likely. For instance:
“Attacks on crowded places overseas, including London Bridge in addition to Borough Market inward June 2017, Manchester Arena inward May 2017, the Berlin Christmas marketplace inward Dec 2016, in addition to the Bastille Day parade inward Nice inward July 2016, demonstrate how basic weapons— including vehicles, knives, in addition to firearms—can live used past times terrorists to devastating effect.” (Commonwealth of Australia, 2017)
The increment inward vehicle ramming, or the utilisation of a vehicle loaded with an IED inward recent years has seen a corresponding increment inward the degree of street blocking for large-scale world events with police pull vehicles in addition to movable barriers. This kickoff degree of defense forcefulness typically constitutes the principal infrastructure used to mark-out the exclusion zone for inner-city massed world events. The side past times side degree of security is the lawsuit barrier combat composed of fencing in addition to gate-entry points operated past times paid lawsuit security, volunteer crowd stewards in addition to police pull pes patrols.
Figure 3: Illustrates 2 scenarios - one, where effective security exists exterior the event, in addition to at the events’ barriers; the other where the events’ barriers stimulate got travel permeable, in addition to at that topographic point is no effective security to halt unauthorised people entering.
The key work is that the security infrastructure used for inner-city massed world events is much of the fourth dimension provisional; that is, barriers in addition to fencing are position inward house specifically for the event, in addition to and then taken-away. Often the fencing is non secured as the mutual practise is to bring down infrastructure that tin toilet itself travel a peril as crowd numbers increase; in addition to inward emergency situations must live rapidly cleared allowing evacuations.
All-day, or nighttime inner-city massed world events are known to introduce numerous workforce problems such as staff-fatigue, insufficient or loss of staff numbers, in addition to the physical wearing downward of provisional fencing in addition to gates past times large-scale use. These factors alone, before long introduce security problems opening gaps which if non unopen introduce opportunities for an assailant to travel inward the event.
Implementing a purely deterministic security model tin toilet led to a failing of security, as gaps opened upwards due to a breakdown on the overall security operation, or at that topographic point has been a dynamic shift inward the attackers’ utilisation of weapons or pick out to weaponize. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 possible solution is to augment the established security with a dynamic defense forcefulness approach.
Dynamic Defence
A dynamic defense forcefulness is where security adopt a randomised designing of defense forcefulness (Flaherty, 2009). Dynamic defense forcefulness interdiction falls into what has been called, ‘mastering the manipulation of the metropolis as a fluid operational space’ (Sullivan in addition to Elkus, 2009).
Dynamic defense forcefulness as a concept of operations is based on non-deterministic or randomised ambush of an attacker. Dynamic defense forcefulness is the mirror side to erratic attacks where 1 or both sides deliberately deed without whatever plan; this is deliberately done to do a chaotic province of affairs during the battle, thereby overwhelming opponents (Flaherty, 2009; 2010; 2015).
The concept of dynamic security has been applied to the, “problem of patrolling a transit system” (Jiang, et al, 2013). The objectives stimulate got been to programme patrols through mass-transit systems, past times applying the regulation of doubtfulness inward cases where the defenders (for example, security officers) mix-up their strategies against fare-evaders, who were operating randomly in addition to in-sync with prepare movements, in-and-out of the stations with a large book of riders (Jiang, et al. 2013; Della Fave, et al. 2014). Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 non dissimilar notion is found inward Australia, to a greater extent than latterly inward 2017:
“We must live to a greater extent than agile, to a greater extent than dynamic, to a greater extent than rapid inward our response than our enemies are.” (AAP, 2017)
In contemporary armed forces thinking, dynamic defense forcefulness emerged as a armed forces concept inward its ain right; used typically:
Describing the various in addition to unpredictable nature of the armed forces environs (Defence Forces Ireland, 2013); and,
Identifying multiple forcefulness options (Lombardi, 2007).
In the Japanese armed forces context, from roughly Dec 2010, the phrase was used interchangeably with ‘dynamic deterrence’, to depict forcefulness capability development, as “multifunctional, flexible, in addition to effective, to reply to complex contingencies” (Macintyre, 2012). This concept is the footing for the electrical flow titling of the Japanese armed forces self-protection forces as a ‘Dynamic Defence Force (DDF)’.
The predecessor of the term ‘dynamic defence’ was ‘dynamic deterrence’ (Macintyre, 2012). This defense forcefulness was defined as, “to dissuade, capabilities to neutralize or capture, credible threats to retaliate, in addition to the might to defend” (Macintyre, 2012). Coupled with the previous definition:
“an explicit comprehend of the utilisation of forcefulness to effectively communicate a deterrent threat or compel an enemy to modify its behavior” (Macintyre, 2012).
However, these formulations piece valid tend to overlook an of import aspect of ‘dynamic defence’, namely its mirror human relationship with ‘erratic actions’. In short, the missing chemical ingredient is:
“identification of non-linearity-logic (which is a requirement for chaotic behaviour); in addition to which has been shown to create a defense forcefulness which effectively counters erratic terrorist tactics inward urban battle” (Flaherty, 2009).
Theoretically, achieving asymmetric advantages through dynamic, or erratic acts comes from ‘doing the unexpected’ to adopting organisation or forcefulness types which are unknown to the adversary, in addition to every bit applies inward both the assail in addition to defense forcefulness (Flaherty, 2010).
In large part, a dynamic defense forcefulness relies on happenstance or coincidence to thwart whatever potential attack. Based on opened upwards patrolling, rather than a specifically fix security inward a house to run into a specific threat, policing, paid lawsuit security, paid crowd managers, parking staff, ambulance crews, in addition to volunteer stewards hold a high solid ground of alertness for suspicious activity, in addition to interdict a potential attack, reacting through a purely withdraw chances encounter.
Even though it is recognised as proficient continuity planning, to cross-train skills alongside the paid in addition to volunteer workforce (Commonwealth of Australia, 2017). Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 lack of potential coordination betwixt the volunteers, paid lawsuit security, in addition to the police pull pes patrol, combined with the typical volunteer who is unlikely to stimulate got a high degree of situational awareness, in addition to crowd milieu produces a massive total of data deprivation in addition to perishability (Flaherty, 2011). This afterward work tin toilet live exacerbated inside the lawsuit space, if the crowding of parade participants goes beyond the recommended security bound of 2 people per foursquare metre, combined with hapless lighting or dissonance it tin toilet travel impossible for whatever fellow member of the lawsuit workforce to effectively hold vigilance, in addition to actively interdict a possible attacker, if they stimulate got successfully breached the security barriers in addition to entered the lawsuit space.
Mitigating potential security failure focuses attending on pre-event grooming in addition to organisation. Two key areas bespeak to live addressed: firstly, a review of the physical coverage of the lawsuit space, measurement the expanse it volition hide inside the barriers, including lawsuit infinite infrastructure determining what form of crowd charge is sustainable earlier the publish of lawsuit participants travel also crowded inside the infinite to live effectively managed. The instant component subdivision of the pre-event planning involves a realistic determination of the actual publish of lawsuit workers needed in addition to their composition, in addition to coordination, including grooming inward communication in addition to interoperability. This would also require suitable grooming inward vigilance, non dissimilar the U.K. projection ARGUS (counterterrorism testing in addition to exercise first sponsored past times the national Counter Terrorism Security Office), in addition to similar awareness training.
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