Paul R. Pillar
THE ADVENT of the Trump direction has set U.S.-Iranian relations into a deep freeze. President Trump has repeatedly indicated his displeasure amongst the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the understanding that restricts Iran’s nuclear program. His engagement of Mike Pompeo to teach secretarial assistant of state, in addition to the rising of John Bolton to teach national safety advisor, propose that he wants to adopt a much harder draw toward the JCPOA fifty-fifty at the expense of isolating the U.S.A. from its European allies. Trump has said, “When y'all hold off at the Islamic Republic of Iran deal—I think it’s terrible; I estimate [Rex Tillerson] idea it was okay. I wanted to either intermission it or create something, in addition to he felt a lilliputian flake differently. So nosotros were non actually thinking the same. With Mike Pompeo, nosotros bring a rattling like idea process.” But the notion that Washington tin merely dictate the price of whatever understanding to Iran, or should fifty-fifty contemplate a novel circular of regime modify past times attacking Tehran, reveals how detached from reality the Islamic Republic of Iran ground has become. Similarly detached has been that debate’s ritual invocation of Iran’s “malign,” “nefarious” or “destabilizing” regional behaviour without examining actual Iranian policies in addition to the reasons for them. Islamic Republic of Iran has been an adversary of the U.S.A. that has sought to expand its influence throughout the Middle East. But treating Islamic Republic of Iran every bit an inveterate foe that cannot last dealt amongst diplomatically risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Though no longer an empire, today’s Islamic Republic of Iran is ane of the most of import states inwards the Middle East. It occupies a large in addition to pivotal physical space. Its population is close the same every bit Turkey’s, non far behind Egypt’s in addition to much greater than that of whatever of the other Arab states.
It is natural—and many Iranians run across it every bit natural—for such a acre to last active in, in addition to to bring substantial influence in, the portion to which it belongs. This perspective does non depend on whatever specific ideology or grand strategy. It does non depend on the political grapheme of the Islamic Republic or the revolution that created that regime. The same background, in addition to most of the thinking that flows from it, would apply if the Pahlavis were nevertheless inwards power. It was the terminal shah who appealed to memories of past times expansion when he staged a lavish celebration at Persepolis for the 2,500th anniversary of the founding of Cyrus the Great’s empire.
DESPITE ITS size in addition to ancient glory, Islamic Republic of Iran faces the offsetting disadvantage of existence a minority inwards its ain portion inwards of import respects. It is a multiethnic, but predominantly Persian, terra firma inwards a Middle East that is to a greater extent than ofttimes than non Arab. It is to a greater extent than ofttimes than non Shia inwards a portion inwards which most people are Sunni Muslims. Some of those Sunnis, specially on the other side of the Western Farsi Gulf, are influential religious militants who regard Shia barely tolerable, if non heretics. These disadvantages hateful Islamic Republic of Iran must operate that much harder to win friends in addition to influence people. It also agency at that topographic point are natural lines of conflict that contribute to Iranians’ sense of existence threatened inside their ain neighborhood. Iranian leaders hold off around them in addition to run across at to the lowest degree every bit many dangers to worry close every bit opportunities to exploit.
No sense has contributed to a greater extent than to Iranian leaders’ sense of beleaguerment than the Iran-Iraq War inwards the 1980s. Republic of Iraq started the war. The eight-year conflict was enormously costly. Accurate figures on casualties are lacking, but Iranian deaths in all likelihood numbered good upwards into 6 figures, amongst hundreds of thousands to a greater extent than wounded. Besides the grueling fighting at the front, Iraqi missiles rained downward on Iranian cities—an sense that shapes Iranian leaders’ thinking today close their necessitate for ballistic missiles every bit a deterrent. The war, which occurred during the showtime decade of the Islamic republic, was a strongly formative sense for many electrical flow Iranian leaders.
Iranians recall that most Arab states, including those facing Islamic Republic of Iran across the Western Farsi Gulf, sided amongst Iraq, notwithstanding their ain differences amongst Saddam Hussein. Iranians also recall that the U.S.A. took Saddam’s side, amongst the solely partial exception to that—what Americans know every bit the Iran-Contra affair—regarded inwards the U.S.A. every bit a scandal.
That history is business office of a larger picture, every bit Iranians run across it, of hostile exterior powers playing on local weakness in addition to segmentation to threaten Iran. Some of those threats bring grown into straight compromises of Iranian sovereignty in addition to independence. The relevant history includes the British in addition to Soviet business of Islamic Republic of Iran during World War II, in addition to the American in addition to British overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh inwards 1953. The Trump administration’s fostering of a U.S.-Israeli-Saudi axis centered on—indeed, defined by—hostility to Islamic Republic of Iran is the latest chapter inwards that history.
The principal lesson for Islamic Republic of Iran from Saddam’s invasion inwards 1980 in addition to the horrendous state of war that followed is that Islamic Republic of Iran must create everything it tin to preclude some other hostile regime from coming to ability inwards Iraq. Whoever governs Republic of Iraq necessitate non last a puppet or a customer or fifty-fifty an ally, but they must bring cordial relations amongst Iran. Parallel perspectives principle much thinking close the human relationship amidst Iraqis, who also suffered greatly from the state of war inwards the 1980s. The to a greater extent than ofttimes than non friendly human relationship that exists today betwixt the Iranian regime in addition to the Iraqi regime of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi reflects such perspectives inwards both countries.
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