Anthony H. Cordesman
The Middle East has long been 1 of the most unstable regions inwards the world, as well as at that spot are no introduce prospects for modify inwards the nigh future. This instability is the number of ongoing conflicts as well as tensions, as well as a multifariousness of political tensions as well as divisions. It also, however, is the number of a broad multifariousness of long-term pressures growing out of miserable governance, corruption, economical failures, demographic pressures as well as other forces inside the civil sector. The Short as well as Long-Term Forces Shaping Stability as well as Instability The immediate sources of instability are clear. Most of the portion has about degree of internal conflict, faces rise external threats, or is dealing amongst tearing extremism. The violence as well as wars that possess got resulted from the political upheavals inwards 2011 volition at best travel out lasting challenges for unity as well as evolution fifty-fifty if the fighting ends. All the major causes of tearing extremism remain, as well as at that spot are few prospects that the create create against ISIS volition eliminate the extremist threat inwards fifty-fifty 1 MENA country. Tensions betwixt State of Israel as well as the Palestinian persist, each side has seen rise internal political barriers to a compromise peace, as well as the tensions betwixt State of Israel as well as Islamic Republic of Iran as well as Hezbollah are creating novel armed services threats.
The longer-term pressures are less clear, although a broad attain of international organizations similar the UN, World Bank, as well as International Monetary Fund possess got warned nearly the private forces involved for decades. Arab experts possess got documented the aeroplane of such pressures inwards the UN's Arab Development Reports since 2002, as well as many of the forces involved possess got consistent trends lines as well as tin dismiss live quantified past times country. These reports expose radical differences betwixt the countries inwards the region, but highlight the fact that given countries possess got mix of miserable as well as abusive governance, ethnic as well as sectarian differences, corruption as well as self-seeking elites, miserable or failed economical development, work as well as career problems, as well as population pressures that challenge national unity as well as stability, as well as assist Pb to tearing extremism.
Taken together, it is clear that at that spot is no precisely agency to model or predict the aeroplane of stability inwards whatsoever given country, much less the region. There are also many variables involved, as well as the variables differ as well as therefore much fifty-fifty betwixt neighboring countries that focusing on 1 laid of variables tin dismiss at best depict the electrical flow province of affairs inwards a unmarried the world – non the province of affairs inwards the Arab Earth or MENA region.
History has also made it all also clear that stability or instability tin dismiss also modify almost straightaway because of the actions of a given figure or leader, personal tensions or mightiness to cooperate, ill-judged actions or interactions betwixt given actors, exterior intervention, success or failure inwards crisis management or warfare, as well as catalytic events that capture pop attention. The origins of the political upheavals as well as wars that began inwards 2011are a cardinal example inwards point.
Report on The Range of Forces Shaping Stability inwards the MENA Region
There are, however, a broad attain of brusk as well as longer-term trends that tin dismiss live analyzed, as well as many tin dismiss live at to the lowest degree partially quantified. They render a clear alarm inwards many cases of the actions that governments must possess got to trim the threat posed past times given causes, as well as touching the lodge of each Arab as well as MENA
A summary presentation on the forces shaping stability as well as instability inwards the MENA portion has evolved significantly since these reports were issued, however, as well as a summary update has been prepared for the annual conference of the Arab Thought Foundation inwards Dubai on Apr 10-12, 2018. This written report addresses both the short-term causes of instability as well as the longer-term trends, as well as provides updated summary information on each Arab as well as Middle Eastern province where available.
The written report is entitled Stability inwards the MENA Region: The Range of Forces Shaping Stability.
The Table of Contents includes:
Key Factors Shaping the Analysis, 7
The “Band of Instability”: Kingdom of Morocco to Iran, 8
Estimating Stability as well as Instability, 9
Key Causes of Instability, 10
Major Impacts to Date, 11
The Security Side of Instability, 12
The Cost of Conflict as well as Violent Extremism, 13
Wars amongst Lasting Stability as well as Development Impacts, 14
The Impact of War on Development: Syria, 15
The Impact of War on Development: Iraq, 16
Terrorism as well as Violent Islamic Extremism, 17
The Growing Global Impact of Islam: 2010-2050, 18
ODNI Map of Sunni Violent Extremist Operating Areas inwards 2017, 19
MENA as well as Nearby Areas Where United States of America Forces Have CT Mission, 20
Arab World Terrorist Attacks vs. Rest of World, 21
Terrorist Attacks inwards MENA 2001-2016, 22
High Lethality inwards Arab Terrorism, 23
Four of Ten Leading Countries are Arab, Eight are “Islamic”, 24
Four of Five Leading Perpetrators are Arab, 25
Costly Wars as well as Arms Races, 26
IISS Estimate of 2017 Global Military Spending, 27
Comparative Military as well as Security Spending inwards 2017, 28
Excessively Large National Security Forces, 29
IISS Estimate of Real Change inwards MENA Military Spending 2016-2017, 30
Ethnic, Sectarian, Tribal, as well as Regional Differences, 31
Sectarian/Ethnic/Tribal/Regional Divisions, 32
Key Analytic Issues, 33
Sectarian Divisions inwards MENA, 34
Ethnic Divisions inwards MENA, 35
Broader “Kurdish Problem”, 36
The Civil Side of Instability, 37
Key Civil Causes of Instability, 38
Civil Challenges to Stability, 39
Some Uncertain Polling Indicators, 40
Perceptions of National Challenges, 41
Arab Youth: Negative Views of ISIS: 2015, 42
Lack of Youth Employment Opportunities,43
Lack of Youth Employment Opportunities Pt 2, 44
Secularism vs. Religion vs. “Justice” vs. Other Ideological Issues, 45
Support for Making Sharia the Official police pull past times Country, 46
Governance as well as Corruption, 47
Governance, Corruption, Rule of Law, Repression, 48
UN HDI Index: Rankings past times Country, 2016, 49
World Bank Rating of Governance inwards Entire MENA Region, 50
Government Effectiveness as well as Failed Secularism, 51
Government Effectiveness as well as Failed Secularism Pt 2, 52
Uncertain Governance, 53
Corruption Perceptions Ranking inwards 2016, 54
Rigid and/or Repressive Regimes; Lack of Peaceful Civil as well as Political Alternatives, 55
Political Stability/ Less Violence inwards 2016, 56
Rule of Law MENA Region, 2016, 57
Economics as well as Unemployment, 58
Key Economic Causes of Instability, 59
GDP past times Country, MENA Region inwards 2017, 60
GDP Per Capita Estimates: MENA Region, 61
GNI per Capita PPP terms, MENA Region, 62
Key Economic Pressures, 63
Key Missing Index: Gini Index, 64
Percentage of Population Dissatisfied amongst Standard of Living, 65
Excessive Public Sector Employment, 66
Lag inwards Employment as well as Cause, 67
Rankings: Ease of Doing Business MENA Region, 2017, 68
The Expatriate Challenge, 69
Population Pressure as well as the “Youth Bulge”, 70
Demographic Pressures, 71
The Global Impact of Islam: 2010-2050, 72
MENA Population (Thousands) 1950 – 2050, 73
Demographic Pressure inwards North Africa 1950-2015, 74
Demographic Pressure inwards Arab-Israeli Countries: 1950-2050, 75
Demographic Pressure inwards Gulf Countries: 1950-2050, 76
Youth Bulge as well as Employment, 77
Total as well as Youth Unemployment Rates past times Region Before 2011, 78
Comparative Arab Youth Unemployment, 79
The “Youth Bulge”, 80
The Shape of Things to Come – for the Next Decade, 81
Dependency Ratio, past times country, MENA region, 2015, 82
Potential Support Ratio, past times country, MENA region, 2015, 83
Major Pressures for Social Change, 84
Social Change, Hyperurbanization, Media, Education, 85
Key Drivers, 86
Growing Hyper Urbanization: 1950-2030, 87
Percentages of Urbanization inwards MENA Region, 2017, 88
Internet Users inwards Middle East, past times Country, 2017, 89
Digital Penetration inwards the MENA Region: 2012, 90
Over-Dependence on Petroleum Exports, 91
The OPEC Disease as well as the Illusion of Oil Wealth, 92
Total Petroleum Export Revenues Sub section, 93
The Real World Limits to Oil Wealth, 94
The Oil Shock inwards 2012-2016, 95
The Limits to “Oil Wealth:” Per Capita Net Oil Export Income as well as the Oil Shock inwards 2012-2016, 96
Non-Petroleum gross domestic product Per Capita Income, 97
Other Slides, 98
GDP per Capita MENA Region inwards 2017, 99
Public Sector Bias inwards Seeking Employment, 100
Perceptions of Quality of Life as well as Governance, 101
Detailed Population Trends, 102
Additional Reports as well as References
The reader should live aware that The Burke Chair at CSIS, working amongst Dr. Abdullah Toucan, has addressed these causes of instability inwards to a greater extent than depth inwards a number of prior reports. Two possess got examined the mightiness to model as well as quantify cardinal trends inwards depth:
Stability inwards the MENA Region: Beyond ISIS as well as War, Volume One: Regional Trends Apr 2016, a comparative survey of the cardinal quantitative civil factors as well as trends shaping stability as well as instability inwards the region. This book is available on the CSIS website at http://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/160419_MENA_Stability_II_Country_01.pdf.
Stability inwards the MENA Region: Beyond ISIS as well as War, Volume Two: Country-by-Country Trends, Apr 2016: a country-by-country endangerment assessment as well as survey of the cardinal quantitative civil factors as well as trends shaping stability as well as instability inwards the region. This book is available on the CSIS website at http://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/160419_MENA_Stability_I_Regional_0.pdf.
A 3rd written report provides a laid of comparisons of each MENA the world flagging both cardinal areas of endangerment as well as major gaps or problems inwards international as well as national reporting:
Instability inwards the MENA Region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, as well as Key Conflict States: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Comparative Score Card, 2017: Seven tables that compare a attain of cardinal measures of stability inwards all MENA states, as well as nearby conflict states. This book is available on the CSIS website at https://www.csis.org/analysis/instability-mena-region-afghanistan-pakistan-and-key-conflict-states-comparative-score-card
Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke chair inwards strategy at the Center for Strategic as well as International Studies inwards Washington, D.C. He has served every bit a consultant on Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan to the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Department of State.
Buat lebih berguna, kongsi:
