The spectacular growth of computers together with other electronic devices created from silicon based integrated circuits has swept all competing technologies from the marketplace. Moore’s Law, which states that the density of transistors within an integrated circuit, together with thence its speed, volition double every 2 years, is expected to terminate earlier 2025 [1] [2] [3] equally the minimum characteristic size on a chip bumps into the inherent granularity of atoms together with molecules. While at that topographic point are a number of promising technologies that may movement clock speeds into the 10s of GHz, switching speeds inwards silicon volition eventually arrive at a limit. Figure 1 shows that clock speed has already plateaued [4]; performance improvements are straight off subject on amend didactics pipelines together with multicore architecture. The terminate of Moore’s constabulary tin forcefulness out endure seen equally some other instance of a typical technological growth bend (Figure 2) [5]; it is straight off fourth dimension to movement on to novel technologies. Current semiconductor applied scientific discipline is inherently fragile. Semiconductor circuits tin forcefulness out solely operate within a fairly narrow temperature arrive at together with are susceptible to Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP), equally good equally physical together with radiations damage; shrinking characteristic sizes downwardly to the nm arrive at increases these vulnerabilities. Devices tin forcefulness out endure hardened past times daze isolation, shielding, together with incorporating redundant circuits, however, this adds terms together with complexity, equally good equally increasing size together with weight.
This newspaper reviews ways to extend semiconductor applied scientific discipline inwards the close term, equally good equally technologies which stimulate got been sidelined, but are worth revisiting equally a agency of sidestepping the limitations of semiconductor technology. Technology recommendations volition endure seat forth equally lead, shape, or watch. The Army should Pb inwardness technologies when it is imperative and, when solely the Army volition or tin forcefulness out lead, shape other technologies past times leveraging industrial together with academic piece of work to run into Army specific applications together with scout developing applied scientific discipline trends which may impact the Army mission. The next sections expand on applied scientific discipline areas that volition stimulate got the potential to overcome the terminate of Moore’s Law.
More Efficient Software
Faster, to a greater extent than efficient hardware has shifted the software developer’s focus away from writing efficientcode. Wirth’s law, a corollary to Moore’s law, states that software is getting slower to a greater extent than speedily than hardware is getting faster [6]. While this may endure a fleck of hyperbole, software bloat has detracted from hardware performance gains. Table 1 illustrates software bloat betwixt dissimilar versions of Microsoft Windows [7]. While features stimulate got been added to each version, it would endure hard to debate that usability improvements stimulate got compensated for an almost ane K crease increment inwards minimum hardware requirements.
Modern programing environments contribute to the occupation of software bloat past times placing relaxation of evolution together with portable code to a higher identify speed or retention usage. While this is a audio draw organisation model inwards a commercial environment, it does non brand feel where information technology resources are constrained. Languages such equally Java, C-Sharp, together with Python stimulate got opted for code portability together with software evolution speed to a higher identify execution speed together with retention usage, piece modern information storage together with transfer standards such equally XML together with JSON identify flexibility together with readability to a higher identify efficiency. The Army tin forcefulness out gain pregnant performance improvements amongst existing hardware past times treating software together with operating scheme efficiency equally a telephone substitution performance parameter amongst measurable criteria for CPU charge together with retention footprint. The Army should Pb past times making software efficiency a priority for the applications it develops. Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) version 1.3 for evolution processes should endure adopted across Army organizations, amongst automated code analysis together with profiling beingness integrated into development. Additionally, the Army should shape the operating scheme marketplace past times leveraging its buying mightiness to demand a secure, robust, together with efficient operating scheme for devices. These metrics should endure implemented equally component subdivision of the Common Operating Environment (COE).
Improved Algorithms
Hardware improvements hateful fiddling if software cannot effectively utilization the resources available to it. The Army should shape hereafter software algorithms past times funding basic enquiry on improved software algorithms to run into its specific needs. The Army should likewise search for novel algorithms together with techniques which tin forcefulness out endure applied to run into specific needs together with develop a learning civilization within its software community to disseminate this information.
Parallel Computing
Parallel computing applied scientific discipline is good established. Massively parallel systems are already inwards utilization equally the ITbackbone of Google, Amazon, together with other cyberspace companies. Likewise, modern supercomputers are massively parallel machines. The most capable supercomputer, located at the National Supercomputing Center inwards Wuxi, China, has over 10 1000000 computing cores operating inwards parallel [8]. This machine is notable for likewise using components designed together with manufactured within the People's Republic of PRC (PRC), indicating that the PRC has reached parity amongst the West inwards semiconductor blueprint together with fabrication [9]. Parallel figurer systems designed for utilization equally servers are tailored to treatment a high throughput of simultaneous tasks, such equally Google search requests. Parallelism inwards High Performance Computing (HPC) is tailored to solving hard problems past times splitting the occupation into pocket-sized pieces which tin forcefulness out endure solved inwards parallel. If a occupation tin forcefulness out endure solved past times techniques suitable for “embarrassingly parallel computing”, together with so massive speedups tin forcefulness out endure realized. Image processing is within this class, allowing GPUs to speed rendering times past times multiple specialized processor cores. Other software techniques suitable for embarrassingly parallel computing include beast forcefulness searches, Monte Carlo simulation, together with evolutionary algorithms. Amdahl's law, together with its successor, Gustafson’s law, defines the upper limits a chore tin forcefulness out endure accelerated when a percentage of the chore is parallelized [10]. Parallel computers are constructed using the same applied scientific discipline equally other semiconductor devices, so they stimulate got the same vulnerabilities together with shortcomings. The Army should shape the final result past times requiring that the software endure developed to efficiently utilization parallel hardware. Often this is equally uncomplicated equally applying libraries together with compiler optimizations that convey payoff of parallelism.
Field Programmable Gated Arrays (FPGA)
FPGAs are integrated circuits which tin forcefulness out endure dynamically configured to implement a logic circuit “in the field.” To quote from Xilinx, a major FPGA manufacturer, “Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are semiconductor devices that are based around a matrix of configurable logic blocks (CLBs) connected via programmable interconnects. FPGAs tin forcefulness out endure reprogrammed to desired application or functionality requirements later on manufacturing. This characteristic distinguishes FPGAs from Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), which are custom manufactured for specific blueprint tasks. Although one-time programmable (OTP) FPGAs are available, the dominant types are Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) based which tin forcefulness out endure reprogrammed equally the blueprint evolves.” [11] This mightiness to endure reconfigured allows FPGAs to fill upward a gap betwixt dedicated logic circuits together with full general purpose CPUs. FPGAs stimulate got kicking the bucket increasingly pop equally a replacement for ASICs where the production quantity does non justify the expense of developing a custom chip. FPGAs are currently embedded into reprogrammable state of war machine hardware such equally avionics, smart munitions, encryption devices, together with digital programmable radios. FPGAs are likewise increasingly used inwards supercomputers, servers at datacenters, together with inwards information mining applications. In ane instance, Microsoft is using FPGA equally component subdivision of the page ranking scheme for the Bing search engine [12]. The FPGA-CPU hybrid scheme has twice the throughput of a conventional system, giving Microsoft a 30% terms savings. In the close term, much of the encryption required past times both information at balance together with information inwards transit should endure moved to FPGAs, making the encryption / decryption physical care for transparent to the balance of the computing system. As fourth dimension progresses, to a greater extent than computing services, such equally the communications stack, all of the navigation services, etc. should endure moved to FPGAs, freeing CPU resources. The Army should kicking the bucket on to shape novel developments past times edifice an inwards solid competency developing products having FPGAs.
Photonics together with Optical Computing
Optical computing has the hope of speeds orders of magnitude faster than the semiconductor devices; however, realizing those promises has been a daunting task. Proposals for optical computing had been seat forth equally early on equally 1961 [13], however, optical computing remained a theoretical concept until suitable lasers, fiber optics, together with non-linear optics were developed. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 resurgence inwards involvement of optical computing came almost inwards the belatedly 1980s, spurred on past times a concern that semiconductor logic could non endure extended to higher frequencies together with an overly optimistic sentiment of non-linear optics [14] [15] [16]. Unexpected roadblocks together with the failure of optical computing enquiry to create a workable general-purpose figurer discouraged researchers together with soured investors. The article “All-Optical Computing together with All-Optical Networks are Dead” [17], co- written inwards 2009 past times a company working capital alphabetic quality investor together with an Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) Fellow, stated that without a machinery to regenerate optical signals, large scale optical computing could non endure done. To quote from the article “The past times 2 decades stimulate got seen a profusion of optical logic that tin forcefulness out serve equally memories, comparators, or other similar bits of logic that nosotros would demand to build an optical computer. Much similar traditional silicon logic, this optical logic suffers from signal loss—that is, inwards the physical care for of doing the performance or computation, some number of decibels is lost. Inoptics, the loss is substantial—an optical signal tin forcefulness out traverse solely a few circuits earlier it must endure amplified. We know how to optically amplify a signal. Indeed, optical amplification is ane of the groovy innovations of the past times twenty years together with has tremendously increased the distances over which nosotros tin forcefulness out ship an optical signal. Unfortunately, amplifying a signal adds noise. After a few amplifications, nosotros demand to regenerate the signal: nosotros demand a device that receives a noisy signal together with emits a crisp create clean signal. Currently the solely way to build regenerators is to build an OEO (optical-electronic-optical) device: the inbound signal is translated from the optical domain into a digitized sample; the electronic element removes the racket from the digitized sample together with and so uses the cleaned-up digitized sample to crusade a Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation that emits a create clean signal inwards the optical domain. OEO regenerators piece of work simply fine, but they irksome us downwardly past times forcing us to piece of work at the speed of electronics.” In comparison, semiconductor logic gates regenerate the signal each fourth dimension it passes through a gate, eliminating signal degradation betwixt stages. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 search for optical regenerators did non dot that at that topographic point stimulate got been whatsoever breakthroughs betwixt 2009 together with the fourth dimension of this writing. Development seems to stimulate got shifted to “optically assisted” devices, which utilization optical processing to speed computationally intensive operations, piece accepting delays generated past times conversions from electrical to optical signals together with dorsum ane time again [18] [19]. These hybrid electro-optical circuits are beingness deployed for package switching within the cyberspace backbone. Given the strong fiscal incentives to increment bandwidth, at that topographic point volition endure a constant force for increasingly capable optical processing devices. The Army should scout for improvements inwards optical communications together with apply commercial developments to its cyberspace backbone where appropriate. The Army should likewise shape the evolution of optical encryption / decryption devices to speed secure communications over WIN-T together with other components of the tactical internet.
Optical interconnections betwixt devices within a vehicle or fixed location would stimulate got the payoff of extremely high bandwidth amongst no Earth loops, interference, EMP, or TEMPEST concerns. TOSLINK, an abbreviation of Toshiba Link, is a digital optical interconnect for dwelling amusement systems which was introduced inwards the 1980s together with has been a successful competition inwards the consumer electronics marketplace for over xxx years. The Army should Pb the evolution of optical interconnections for tactical application past times establishing opened upward standards for these connections together with devices which volition run into MIL-STD-810, equally good equally E3 together with other relevant defence forcefulness standards. The Army should shape the adoption of devices amongst optical interconnects past times requiring optical interconnections using the Military Standard on novel information processing equipment.
Image processing is a natural application for optical computing. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 number of applications of potential utilization past times the Army stimulate got already been developed. “Non-uniform ikon de-blurring using an optical computing system” [20] is an instance of a technique which could endure transitioned from a laboratory study to improved optics inwards the field. Unfortunately, the enquiry was conducted inwards Tsinghua University, China; a potential adversary to the United States. The U.S. state of war machine together with homeland defence forcefulness institution should aggressively search for improved ikon processing techniques using non-linear optics together with Pb evolution to maintain our land competitive inwards this area.
Quantum Computing together with Code Breaking
Quantum computing has generated pregnant involvement for its potential to solve Non-Deterministic Polynomial-time (NP) hard problems inwards cryptology together with other endeavors inwards polynomial time. Shor’s algorithm, presented inwards a newspaper entitled “Polynomial-Time Algorithms for Prime Factorization together with Discrete Logarithms on a Quantum Computer” [21], if successfully implemented, would effectively destroy Rivest–Shamir–Adleman (RSA) together with other populace telephone substitution cryptographic systems, rendering much of the world’s information technology infrastructure vulnerable to attack. In 2016, Shor’s algorithm was implemented using an ion-trap quantum figurer to factor fifteen into v together with three [22]. While this is a trivial problem, it marks an of import milestone, demonstrating that a quantum figurer tin forcefulness out endure constructed together with used to implement Shor’s algorithm. MIT, the academy where the experiment was conducted, questioned whether this marked the starting fourth dimension of the terminate for encryption schemes [23]. D-Wave, a startup companionship offering quantum computers, claims to stimulate got a 1,000-qubit scheme available [24]. If these claims are true, together with the D-Wave figurer tin forcefulness out implement Shor’s algorithm, together with so RSA together with other populace telephone substitution encryption algorithms may endure on the verge of beingness broken. The Army should lead, acting proactively to ensure that digital assets are rubber if together with when populace telephone substitution encryption is broken. The Army should likewise factor a loss of reliable encryption past times allied forces together with past times civilian employees together with contractors within the defence forcefulness institution into its strategic plans.
Technological advances ofttimes “gives amongst ane hand, to convey away amongst the other”. Quantum computing provides the agency to pause populace telephone substitution encryption, which relies on solving NP problems. The champaign of post-quantum cryptography searches for algorithms which resist laid on against a non-deterministic Turing machine, a mathematical model for a quantum computer. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 number of candidate algorithms stimulate got been proposed, silent the champaign is inwards a state of flux. [25] The National Institute of Standards together with Technology (NIST) has issued a telephone telephone for proposals for novel quantum-resistant cryptographic protocols to endure used equally a populace telephone substitution cryptographic measure [26]. Other groups are looking at replacing cyberspace protocols amongst quantum-resistant protocols. [27] The Army should scout for developments of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms it tin forcefulness out field. The Army should likewise brand allowances for changing encryption systems past times either adding additional capacity to the cryptographic subsystems of computers, radios, together with other information processing devices, or modularize the cryptographic subsystem amongst the expectation that it volition kicking the bucket obsolete together with demand to endure replaced over the life of the unit.
Nanotechnology-based Computers
Nanotechnology-based computers using some shape of mechanical logic such equally “rod logic”, stimulate got been proposed [28], however, at that topographic point are no techniques currently available to industry such a device. Supplying unloose energy to such a device, equally good equally oestrus dissipation, are likewise unsolved problems. While nanoparticles together with other nanostructures are transforming chemistry, biology, together with materials science, at that topographic point does non appear to endure whatsoever travail to build nano-machines which could deed equally a nano-computer. The Army should scout for developments if together with when they appear.
Biologically Inspired Computing
Biologically inspired computing covers a wide laid of computing together with robotics disciplines which convey inspiration from nature. Artificial neural networks were initiative off conceived inwards the 1950’s equally perceptrons, which acted equally uncomplicated binary classifiers. Since that time, a litany of approaches to modeling biological networks stimulate got been attempted, amongst varying degrees of success. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 specially ambitious projection has been the consummate mapping of the nervous scheme of Caenorhabditis elegans, a mutual circular worm [29] [30]. This research, coupled amongst advances inwards modeling spiking neural networks [31] [32] [33], offered the possibility of recreating pocket-sized biological brains within a computer. Such artificial neural networks concur the hope of beingness to a greater extent than robust together with capable than electrical flow robotic AI. Robots demonstrating spiking neural networks are beingness built [34]. Figure three illustrates a uncomplicated draw next robot which uses a spiking neural network for navigation control. The Army should scout spiking neural network developments, implementing advances equally they kicking the bucket available.
Evolutionary algorithms stimulate got been inwards utilization since their regain inwards the 1970’s. It has likewise been proven past times the No Free Lunch theorem [35] that “black box” optimization including evolutionary algorithms together with synthetic annealing volition non perform whatsoever amend than beast forcefulness search. However, evolutionary algorithms tin forcefulness out exhibit impressive performance if the algorithm is tuned for the task. The Army should scout for developments inwards evolutionary algorithms which could endure of make goodness to national security.
One number that hampers biologically inspired computing techniques is a lack of procedures for formalizing a design, together with so verification together with validation of the finished product. It is non clear how to comport testing on a computer program that has been evolved or grown, rather than been coded inwards the traditional sense. The Army Material Command should Pb the travail to develop processes for accepting together with fielding software developed past times non-traditional means, such equally neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, together with machine developed code.
Fluidics together with Microfluidics
Fluidic computers utilization the time period of a gas or fluid equally a agency to perform digital operations. While the performance of these computers is to a greater extent than ofttimes than non express to the kilohertz range, the figurer itself is extremely robust together with is non affected past times EMP or radiation, making it ideal for backup or failsafe equipment which must operate no thing the circumstance. Motive mightiness for such a scheme tin forcefulness out endure compressed gas, piece a arrive at of sensors together with actuators stimulate got been developed making a fully fluidic command scheme feasible. In the past, the Army had an active fluidic program, fielding systems amongst fluidic components; “Fluidics-Basic Components together with Applications”, a study from Harry Diamond Laboratories, a predecessor to the Communications-Electronics Research, Development, together with Engineering Center (CERDEC), outlined the state of state of war machine fluidics inwards the belatedly 1970’s [36]. Fluidic enquiry ended when microprocessors became readily available inwards the 1980s, making fluidic computers obsolete. Recently, however, at that topographic point has been a renewed involvement inwards fluidics together with microfluidics, equally depression terms micromachining techniques stimulate got made it possible to create pocket-sized together with capable fluidic computers which could endure straight coupled to chemic together with biological systems. [37] [38]. The Army should shape the evolution of microfluidic computers for analysis of chemic together with biological threats amongst the goal of having speedily fieldable detection systems which tin forcefulness out endure operated inwards a remote location amongst minimum preparation together with support. The Army should likewise Pb inwards the evolution of emergency backup systems using microfluidics to supply degraded performance inwards instance of a High Altitude EMP (HEMP) lawsuit or other incident.
Conclusion
The nine applied scientific discipline areas outlined to a higher identify stimulate got the potential to circumvent the terminate of Moore’s law, keeping the Army’s Pb inwards strategic technology. Each expanse tin forcefulness out brand a contribution, but, if combined, a much larger impact could endure achieved. PRC is making alarming strides inwards telephone substitution technologies such equally parallel together with optical computing. The Army should develop a unified enquiry together with evolution roadmap to ensure that the U.S. remains dominant inwards these strategic technologies.
Author Information
Dr. Stuart Vanweele, Mortar Fire Control, Armament Research Development Engineering Center (ARDEC), U.S. Army, Picatinny Arsenal, N.J.
Ralph C. Tillinghast, Lab Director, Collaboration Innovation Lab, Armament Research Development Engineering Center (ARDEC), U.S. Army, Picatinny Arsenal, N.J.
References
[1]
"Moore’s Law Is Dead. Now What?," thirteen May 2016. [Online]. Available:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/. [Accessed 12 July 2016].
[2]
M. M. Waldrop, "More than Moore," Nature, vol. 530, pp. 145-147, eleven Feb 2016.
[3]
The Economist, "Technology Quarterly - After Moores Law," 12 March 2016. [Online]. Available:http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-03-12/after-moores-law. [Accessed 15
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