Frida Ghitis
One of the to a greater extent than intriguing aspects of the enormously complicated state of war inward Syrian Arab Republic is the topographic point of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose allegiance as well as convictions seem to shift amongst developments on the ground. Two weeks ago, Erdogan hosted a pinnacle coming together inward Ankara to verbalize over Syria’s future. For a photo-op, he literally joined hands amongst the presidents of Russian Federation as well as Iran, the chief backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whom Erdogan non long agone was soundless condemning every bit a “terrorist” as well as the roadblock to peace inward Syria. It was a gesture, it seemed, that Moscow, Tehran as well as Ankara directly stood on the same side of the conflict. That appearance, however, was shattered final weekend after the United States, French Republic as well as the United Kingdom of Great Britain as well as Northern Ireland launched a barrage of missiles into Syrian Arab Republic inward retaliation for the suspected chemic assail inward the Damascus suburb of Douma. As the governments of Syria, Islamic Republic of Iran as well as Russian Federation decried the operation, Erdogan cheered, maxim the U.S.-led mission sent an of import message to Assad’s regime that “its massacres wouldn’t hold upwards left unanswered.”
Turkey, of course, is a fellow member of NATO, but inward recent years it has drifted away from the alliance on a number of fronts, most notably inward Syria. Ankara’s unopen ties amongst Moscow, including plans to purchase a Russian missile defense forcefulness system, withdraw maintain alarmed its Western allies.
The history of Erdogan’s topographic point on the Syrian state of war is a study inward shape-shifting. Long earlier the state of war started, Erdogan had developed a unopen human relationship amongst Assad. Their families famously vacationed together inward the Turkish resort town of Bodrum inward 2008, every bit the Turkish leader pursued a policy of proficient relations amongst all its neighbors, starting amongst Assad.
Western leaders at the fourth dimension viewed Erdogan every bit an representative of a moderate Islamist politico who would back upwards democracy, i they hoped other Muslim leaders would emulate.
By the fourth dimension the civil state of war started inward Syrian Arab Republic inward 2011, much had already changed. After the early on heady days of the Arab Spring, when calls for republic unexpectedly gave a path to ability to political parties aligned amongst the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East, Erdogan tried to boot the bucket a leader of the revolution. He toured the share to promote Turkey’s model of “Muslim democracy,” fifty-fifty every bit observers began to query his ain commitment to democracy.
When the calls for alter reached Damascus as well as Assad responded past times crushing protesters, Erdogan became i of Assad’s fiercest opponents exterior Syria. He was i of the start leaders to telephone outcry upwards for Assad’s ouster as well as stood firmly amongst the West inward 2011 inward maxim the Syrian dictator should leave. Erdogan gave prophylactic passage to Islamist fighters through Turkish territory, hoping to reckon Assad deposed.
Erdogan’s topographic point regarding Syrian Arab Republic shifted i time again inward 2015. Tensions betwixt the Turkish province as well as the country’s minority Kurds had intensified, as well as the Turkish president started treating Syrian Arab Republic inside that context. The Islamic State had boot the bucket a major threat inward Syria, as well as Syrian Kurds had scored the start meaning victory against the jihadi grouping past times retaking the fundamental edge town of Kobani. For Erdogan, removing Assad took a dorsum topographic point to the imperative of preventing Kurdish autonomy—but removing Assad was soundless a goal.
That year, Russian Federation entered Syrian Arab Republic to prop upwards Assad. Putin as well as Erdogan became ii of the principal unusual leaders standing on reverse sides of Syria’s war.
With his finger to the wind, Erdogan has shown a willingness to arrange his topographic point to reckon circumstances.
When a Russian fighter jet strayed into Turkish airspace as well as Turkey shot it down, relations betwixt Moscow as well as Ankara plummeted. Russian Federation imposed crippling sanctions on Turkey. Imports of Turkish products into Russian Federation collapsed, as well as Russian tourists stopped visiting Turkish resorts. Then, a serial of events shifted Erdogan’s topographic point i time again.
In August 2016, the ii leaders met inward Petrograd to endeavour to patch upwards their differences. The pinnacle achieved something of a détente, amongst agreements on the demand for humanitarian relief, but it highlighted the precipitous departure of views regarding Assad’s future.
Four months later, a gunman inward Ankara assassinated Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, shouting “don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria,” after he pulled the trigger. Oddly, the killing galvanized a farther détente betwixt Moscow as well as Ankara. Perhaps frightened of a crushing Russian response, Erdogan softened his stance. After a telephone conversation amongst Putin next the assassination, Erdogan said that he as well as Putin “agreed to farther strengthen our collaboration peculiarly inward the international struggle against terror inward the forthcoming days.” Erdogan’s fourth dimension every bit Assad’s principal external adversary appeared to hold upwards over.
Erdogan stopped antagonizing Russian Federation as well as Assad, as well as Russian Federation inward plow gave Erdogan to a greater extent than latitude regarding Syria’s Kurds. The side past times side year, Assad met amongst Putin inward Sochi, the Russian resort metropolis on the Black Sea. Soon after, Erdogan also landed inward Sochi. After talks amongst Putin, he said Assad had sent a message via the Russian president that he would oppose Kurdish autonomy. Assad as well as Putin were agreeing to Erdogan’s goals, as well as the Turkish leader’s visceral antipathy toward Assad seemed to recede.
When reporters asked if he mightiness restore relations amongst the Syrian dictator, a human he had thoroughly demonized, Erdogan replied, “In politics, the doors are opened upwards until the rattling final 2d … It is non correct to dominion out anything on this issue.”
But as well as thus circumstances changed again, as well as Erdogan made to a greater extent than or less other precipitous pivot. Last December, when Assad was squeezing civilians trapped inward the besieged Damascus suburbs of Eastern Ghouta, Erdogan called the Syrian president a “terrorist,” maxim it would hold upwards “absolutely impossible” to handgrip Syrian peace talks spell Assad remains inward power.
In February, when Turkey’s chief opposition leader suggested sitting at the tabular array amongst Assad, Erdogan farther fulminated against the Syrian president: “What volition nosotros verbalize close to a murderer who has killed 1 meg of his citizens?”
Now the state of war inward Syrian Arab Republic is entering a novel phase. Soon, the armed conflict volition withdraw maintain on a dissimilar character, probable that of a continuing but lower-grade insurgency. Russia, Islamic Republic of Iran as well as its allied Lebanese militia Hezbollah withdraw maintain turned the state of war inward the Syrian army’s favor. Questions close what happens side past times side inward Syrian Arab Republic are increasingly political, rather than military, ones. If the recent Ankara pinnacle was meant to constitute a novel troika to bargain amongst Syria, Erdogan’s back upwards for the recent Western strikes against Assad puts him at odds amongst his partners inward Moscow as well as Tehran.
In Syria’s complex war, Erdogan is i of the most complicated players. With his finger to the wind, Erdogan has shown a willingness to arrange his topographic point to reckon circumstances. His top priority remains blocking Kurdish autonomy. But his antipathy toward Assad remains. In the side past times side stage of Syria’s war, Erdogan may give away it useful to repair relations amongst NATO inward company to leverage his membership inward the alliance as well as maximize his influence inward negotiations over Syria’s future.
That makes him a hard partner for Putin, a harsh adversary for the Kurds—and a wily, non altogether trustworthy ally for the West.
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