April 24, 2018
Mohammed Ayoob, The National Interest
Israeli investigative journalist Ronen Bergman’s Rise too Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations is a remarkable run of nonfiction. Written similar a fast-paced thriller, it provides a detailed history too analysis of nearly all of Israel’s major (successful too unsuccessful) attempts to assassinate its presumed enemies. These include the killing of Abu Jihad, the PLO’s de facto state of war machine chief; the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’s primary ideologue too spiritual mentor; the murder of Imad Mughnieh, the encephalon behind Hezbollah’s attacks on Israeli targets; too many other lesser-known figures.
It also includes accounts of the assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists, which Israeli intelligence agencies undertook inwards guild to derail Iran’s nuclear-weapons program. Bergman fifty-fifty hints at Israel’s complicity inwards Yasser Arafat’s death, although he refuses to endorse or refute this conclusion. The exclusively major adversary that State of Israel has non been able to kill despite its best efforts is Hassan Nasrallah, the secretarial assistant full general of Hezbollah. Incidentally, the exclusively major botched operation, according to Bergman, was Israel’s failure to kill Khaled Meshal, closed to other leading low-cal of Hezbollah.
By the halt of the book, 1 begins to wonder how too why the Israeli censors, who receive got frequently been at loggerheads alongside Bergman, allowed the publication of this tell-all book, since it portrays State of Israel inwards a negative low-cal every bit a leading perpetrator of province terrorism. In fact, Bergman admits Israel’s culpability at the real starting fourth dimension of the volume when he writes, “Since World War II, State of Israel has assassinated to a greater extent than people than whatever other province inwards the Western world.”
As 1 reads the book, 1 is left to wonder whether the volume was published primarily to communicate to Israel’s adversaries that no 1 who crosses Israel’s path, similar a shot or inwards the future, is safe. In Bergman’s words, “The finish of deterrence is every bit of import every bit the finish of preempting specific hostile acts.” In short, Bashar al-Assad beware!
But the volume is non only a catalog of acts of murder undertaken yesteryear the Mossad too its sis intelligence agencies. It also provides an insider’s sentiment of the rivalries betwixt the diverse intelligence agencies, too betwixt political personalities interested inwards using Israel’s success too failure inwards assassinating its enemies for personal too political gain. The rivalries he unmasks are non express to political persona such every bit Ariel Sharon, Levi Eshkol, Benjamin Netanyahu too Ehud Barak. In fact, the most fascinating disagreement that he describes ensued betwixt Prime Minister Netanyahu too Meir Dagan, in all likelihood the most effective caput of the Mossad since its founding.
In the terminal years of Dagan’s service—indeed, of his life—he too Netanyahu were at loggerheads on the 2 “existential threats” that the province faced: the Palestinians too the Iranian bomb. They also clashed over the two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Dagan, who had no compunction inwards killing Palestinians too destroying their institutions for most of his career, eventually “came to the conclusion that exclusively a political solution alongside the Palestinians—the two-state solution—could halt the 150-year conflict, too that the termination of Netanyahu’s policies would live a binational province alongside parity betwixt Arabs too Jews too a concomitant danger of constant repression too internal strife, replacing the Zionist dream of a democratic Jewish province alongside a large Jewish majority.” He bitterly opposed Netanyahu behind closed doors during the lastly years he served every bit caput of the Mossad, too from populace platforms—even campaigning against Netanyahu during the lastly election later on he quit service.
Dagan had masterminded the assassination of a succession of Iranian nuclear scientists inwards guild to position a interruption on Iran’s nuclear program. However, when force came to shove, he opposed the excogitation of Netanyahu (and his defence strength minister, Ehud Barak) to assault Iran’s nuclear facilities to preempt Tehran from developing nuclear capabilities. He called the plan to bomb Islamic Republic of Iran “the stupidest matter I receive got e'er heard.”
According to Bergman, Netanyahu too Barak had “ordered the IDF too the intelligence arms to create for Operation Deep Waters: an all-out air attack, supported yesteryear commando forces, inwards the pump of Iran. Some $2 billion was spent on preparations for the assault too for the anticipated ensuing state of war against the Radical Front [Iran, Syrian Arab Republic too Hezbollah].”
Meir Dagan argued that whatever assault on Islamic Republic of Iran would live counterproductive because it would non permanently terminate Iran’s nuclear-weapons program. More important, he argued that it would alienate the United States—especially later on the Obama direction had begun cloak-and-dagger negotiations alongside Islamic Republic of Iran inwards 2012, alongside the assist of Oman, to detect a mutually acceptable solution to the nuclear imbroglio. These negotiations, he argued, were probable to create a improve outcome from Israel’s perspective than a state of war that would thoroughly destabilize the Middle East too atomic number 82 to unforeseen consequences.
What comes out clearly from the volume is that, every bit Bergman himself asserts, “in many respects the storey of Israel’s intelligence community … has been 1 of a long string of impressive tactical successes, but also disastrous strategic failures.” Despite the massive number of assassinations of Palestinian political figures carried out yesteryear Israel’s intelligence agencies too the IDF, State of Israel has been unable to resolve the dispute to its satisfaction. The Palestinians simply spend upwardly to cash inwards one's chips away too bring Israel’s appropriation of their land. Indeed, it similar a shot appears that a unmarried binational province betwixt the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan River too the Mediterranean Sea is becoming a distinct possibility, thus putting an halt to the Zionist dream.
The province of affairs has cash inwards one's chips demographically dire for Israel, alongside latest official Israeli figures indicating that the Jewish too Palestinian populations betwixt the Mediterranean too the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan receive got now achieved parity, at 6.5 1000000 each—and this does non include Gaza too the Palestinian refugee population exterior the Palestinian territories. In low-cal of these statistics, too given the intransigent mental attitude adopted yesteryear the Netanyahu government, many influential Palestinian figures, including PLO primary negotiator Saeb Erekat, receive got come to the conclusionthat a unmarried binational province would improve adjust Palestinian interests.
Similarly, Israel’s threat to bomb Iran, too its pressure level upon Washington to bring the atomic number 82 inwards attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, failed to yield results: Islamic Republic of Iran did non blink inwards the confront of these threats. Contrary to Israeli promptings, the Obama direction came to the conclusion that the best agency to resolve the Iranian nuclear number was to motility into into an understanding alongside Tehran to curb its nuclear program. The JCPOA, despite President Trump’s continuing diatribe against it, is expected to lastly for 2 reasons: one, Iran’s continuing compliance alongside its damage every bit affirmed yesteryear the IAEA; and, two, the reluctance of the other members of the P5+1 to renege on a bargain that is achieving its objectives.
Israel’s assassination of several meridian Iranian nuclear scientists has thus been inwards vain, too its repeated threats to assault Islamic Republic of Iran receive got shown it upwardly every bit a newspaper tiger. Above all, Iran’s mastery of the nuclear cycle, too the cognition its scientists receive got gained from operating its diverse nuclear facilities, are unlikely to live lost despite the temporary freezing of its uranium-enrichment computer programme nether the damage of the JCPOA.
Tehran’s conclusion to cash inwards one's chips nuclear at the halt of the JCPOA’s fifteen-year term will, therefore, depend upon its perception of its strategic environs at that time. The less threatening this environs appears from Tehran’s perspective, the less ground Islamic Republic of Iran volition receive got to resume its nuclear-weapons program. It must live clearly understood inwards this context that it is primarily the U.S.A. that tin sack guarantee a less threatening environs for Islamic Republic of Iran too thus cut back the attraction of nuclear weapons for Tehran.
The key lesson 1 draws from this volume is that targeted assassinations, fifty-fifty if masterfully conducted, are probable to stay irrelevant to the larger strategic picture. They may satisfy a country’s thirst for revenge or its want to demonstrate its mightiness superiority, but they ambit non guarantee the achievement of its long-term goals. Bergman deserves kudos for his candid too honest assessment of Israel’s policy of targeted killings.
Mohammed Ayoob is a senior swain at the Center for Global Policy inwards Washington, DC, too University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University.
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