China unveiled the concept for the Twenty-First Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) inwards 2013 equally a evolution strategy to boost infrastructure connectivity throughout Southeast Asia, Oceania, the Indian Ocean, in addition to East Africa. The MSR is the maritime complement to the Belt in addition to Road Initiative, which focuses on infrastructure evolution across Central Asia. Together these initiatives assort the One Belt One Road (OBOR) first designed to rear China’s influence across Asia.
There is a shortage of infrastructure investment to come across the needs of developing nations across the Indo-Asia-Pacific portion in addition to most nations receive got welcomed the chance to bid for Chinese funding. At the same time, in that place are growing questions nigh the economical viability in addition to the geopolitical intentions behind China’s proposals. Thus far MSR initiatives receive got mainly been concentrated inwards the littoral states of the Indo-Pacific region, especially port-development projects, which is raising questions nigh whether these investments are economical or armed services inwards nature. These large-scale investments are equally good structured inwards ways that invite questions nigh the potential for China to exert undo leverage over the domestic in addition to unusual policies of heavily indebted recipient countries.
To shed low-cal on closed to of these themes, CSIS has commissioned 7 experts to unpack the economical in addition to geostrategic implications of China’s infrastructure evolution across the Indo-Pacific portion nether the MSR. Their enquiry is presented inwards this volume. The essays laid about with analysis of 4 infrastructure projects, 3 past times China nether MSR in addition to ane past times Republic of Republic of India equally a counter to MSR. These are: Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Pakistan), in addition to Chabahar (Iran):
Kyaukpyu: Greg Poling explains the economical in addition to strategic rationale behind China’s investments inwards Kyaukpyu, a coastal town along the Bay of Bengal inwards Myanmar’s western-most province of Rakhine. China of late won contracts to prepare a deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu in addition to an industrial surface area inwards a special economical zone (SEZ) nearby. Kyaukpyu is equally good the terminus for an oil pipeline in addition to a parallel natural gas pipeline running to Kunming, uppercase of southwestern China’s Yunnan Province. Those projects reverberate a strategic endeavor past times Beijing to cut down its reliance on oil in addition to gas imports through the Strait of Malacca, in addition to a deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu could similarly assist China inwards its drive to prepare its inland provinces. Poling references regional concerns nigh the potential that China would leverage a port at Kyaukpyu for armed services purposes but concludes that at introduce the overriding fearfulness inside Myanmar is China’s potential economical leverage via debt financing.
Hambantota: Jonathan Hillman examines China’s evolution of the Hambantota port inwards Sri Lanka in addition to questions the economical rationale of this projection given existing capacity in addition to expansion plans at Colombo port, fueling concerns that Hambantota could live a Chinese naval facility. This instance equally good highlights the potential risks of becoming a debt trap equally Sri Lanka handed the port over to China inwards Dec 2017 with a controlling equity stake in addition to a 99-year lease—eerily similar to the royal strategies U.K. imposed on Qing China with Hong Kong inwards the Nineteenth Century. Hillman suggests the Hambantota instance reveals the postulate for recipient countries to necktie infrastructure projects to larger evolution strategies inwards club to amend monitor debt levels, in addition to for the international community to expand alternatives to Chinese infrastructure financing.
Gwadar: Gurmeet Kanwal highlights the evolution of Gwadar port equally a primal chemical gene inwards the larger China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. Though CPEC is branded equally a symbol of strong bilateral ties betwixt China in addition to Pakistan, Kanwal argues that both sides receive got misgivings nigh the project, including China’s delineate of piece of job concern nigh the security of its workers in addition to fears inwards Islamic Republic of Pakistan nigh increased indebtedness resulting from the project, that could increment tensions. Kanwal equally good addresses the security implications of China’s potential naval access to Gwadar equally a gateway to the Indo-Pacific, in addition to concludes past times examining the potential from the revived quadrilateral framework of security dialogue in addition to cooperation with India, Japan, Australia, in addition to the USA equally a means to counter China’s strategic outreach.
Chabahar: Harsh Pant notes that China is non the only terra firma playing the non bad game through infrastructure investment. India’s efforts to assist prepare Iran’s Chabahar Port reverberate Delhi’s ain ambitions equally a driver of infrastructure evolution in addition to improved regional connectivity, especially with Afghanistan. Close to the Chinese-backed, Pakistani port of Gwadar, the Chabahar projection is equally good seen equally a strategic play to boundary the influence China seeks to gain in addition to wield through its Belt in addition to Road Initiative in addition to MSR. Pant concludes past times identifying complications inwards India’s strategy stemming from Iran’s openness to Chinese in addition to Pakistani participation inwards the evolution of Chabahar.
These 4 infrastructure instance studies are followed past times ii essays addressing the broader economical in addition to armed services implications of China’s MSR initiative:
Economic Implications: Matthew Funaiole in addition to Jonathan Hillman laid about their chapter past times framing the larger economical significance of the Indo-Pacific region, noting for instance that each of the 10 busiest container ports inwards the earth are along the shores of either the Pacific or the Indian Ocean, in addition to to a greater extent than than one-half of the world’s maritime merchandise inwards fossil oil transits the Indian Ocean alone. In club to laid about addressing whether China’s infrastructure investments serve economical or strategic purposes—or both—the authors innovate 3 criteria for assessing the economical viability of infrastructure evolution projects: proximity to transportation lanes; proximity to existing ports; in addition to hinterland connectivity, or the marker to which port projects are connected to larger evolution strategies inland (though closed to ports tin arguably serve meaningful economical purposes equally hubs for cargo transshipment). In their view, all 3 of the Chinese infrastructure projects examined inwards this book are somewhat misaligned with economical objectives, especially with abide by to the 3rd touchstone of connectivity.
Military Implications: Zack Cooper posits that China’s increased armed services presence inwards the Indian Ocean should non come upwards equally a surprise. China is next inwards the traditional path of other rising powers; it is expanding its armed services operations to jibe its interests abroad. The Chinese economic scheme is highly reliant on merchandise routes that exceed through the Indian Ocean, which serves equally a vital pathway, especially for unloose energy supplies, in addition to it is hence natural for the Chinese regime to essay to protect its interests along these sea lines of communication. In his view, the security implications of China’s force into the Indian Ocean are mixed. In peacetime, these efforts volition for certain expand Chinese influence inwards the region, perchance through access to port facilities to refuel or resupply naval vessels in addition to inwards damage of anti-piracy operations in addition to familiarization with other regional militaries. At the same time, however, China’s Indian Ocean presence volition probable create equally many vulnerabilities equally opportunities inwards damage of protecting merchandise routes, bases, in addition to ships—particularly inwards wartime. Nevertheless, Beijing’s political, economic, in addition to armed services influence is probable to expand inwards time to come years in addition to volition stay a delineate of piece of job concern for strategists focused on the Indian Ocean, which has long been seen past times the USA in addition to Commonwealth of Australia equally a critical transit signal from the Pacific to the Middle East in addition to critical for maritime defence inwards depth to create out whatever threats to the critical chokepoints of the Gulf of Hormuz in addition to the Strait of Malacca. These concerns are increasingly on Japan’s radar in addition to Republic of Republic of India has equally good grown concerned that China’s so-called “string of pearls” inwards the Indian Ocean would give Beijing novel options to horizontally escalate beyond long-standing Sino-Indian contest inwards the Himalayas.
The serial concludes past times examining how the maritime democracies of the United States, Japan, India, in addition to Commonwealth of Australia mightiness answer to the uncertainties posed past times the MSR through the newly reconstituted “Quad.”
Quad Response: Jesse Barker Gale in addition to Andrew Shearer review the history of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” which began when Australia, Japan, India, in addition to the USA outset came together to provide humanitarian assistance after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In subsequent years, the 4 governments failed to formalize the build because of differences inside each uppercase nigh China’s possible reaction. Fast-forward a decade, in addition to the 4 countries receive got at ane time reestablished the Quad inwards what the authors consider a response to China’s unexpected economical in addition to armed services assertiveness inwards the region. They debate that with increasing convergence with the 4 maritime democracies on the postulate to coordinate on a broader strategy to ensure a gratuitous in addition to opened upwards Indo-Pacific region, the “Quad 2.0” has potential to shape China’s strategy inwards a to a greater extent than benign direction, but remains underutilized in addition to under-operationalized.
This written report builds on prior live at CSIS on the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, including: the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; Reconnecting Asia; China Power; andCountering Coercion inwards Maritime Asia. The thought for a focused exam of China’s Maritime Silk Road grew out of discussions with senior leadership on Japan’s National Security Council staff, who in addition to so provided closed to funding for a conference on the subject. As with our other enquiry on maritime Asia, nosotros receive got endeavored to integrate political, military, economic, in addition to historical considerations. The analysis in addition to prescriptions are exclusively those of the authors in addition to create non stand upwards for the official positions of whatever regime inwards the region.
The overall decision is mixed. China’s MSR projects are neither purely armed services nor purely commercial. Moreover, China’s overall approach is in all likelihood evolving. It is our promise that this written report volition assist the USA in addition to like-minded states refine their ain response to MSR—hedging or deterring where necessary, but equally good working to encourage a to a greater extent than transparent in addition to economically feasible approach from Beijing.
I am grateful to the authors for their expertise in addition to careful live in addition to to Nick Szechenyi for leading the projection in addition to pulling together the essays for this study.
Michael J. Green is senior vice president for Asia in addition to Nippon chair at CSIS, in addition to manager of Asian studies in addition to chair inwards modern in addition to contemporary Japanese politics in addition to unusual policy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
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