The Dawn of a New Commercial Era?
For over ii millennia, applied scientific discipline too politics have got shaped merchandise across the Eurasian supercontinent. The compass too domesticated camels helped the “silk routes” emerge betwixt 200 too 400 CE, too peaceful interactions betwixt the Han too Hellenic empires allowed overland merchandise to flourish. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 major shift occurred inwards the tardily fifteenth century, when the innovation of large ocean-going vessels too novel navigation methods made maritime merchandise to a greater extent than competitive. Mercantilism too contest alongside Europe’s colonial powers helped line commerce to the coastlines. Since then, commerce betwixt Asia too Europe has traveled primarily past times sea.
Against this historical backdrop, novel railway services betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe have got emerged rapidly. Just 10 years ago, regular direct freight services from Communist People's Republic of China to Europe did non exist.2 Today, they connect roughly 35 Chinese cities with 34 European cities.3 Rail services are considerably cheaper than air too faster than sea, as Figure 1 illustrates, too could provide a compelling oculus pick for to a greater extent than goods inwards the coming years. Rail’s portion of cargo past times value is already growing, increasing 144 percentage during the get-go half of 2017, as compared to the same flow inwards 2016.4 Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 study commissioned past times the International Union of Railways estimates that China-Europe rails services could double their portion of merchandise past times volume over the adjacent decade.5
Figure 1: Shift inwards Transit Cost too Time (2006-2017)
Source: Xu Zhang, Eurasian Rail Freight inwards The One Belt One Road Era, Cranfield University
China is the primary strength behind these routes, too other countries have got been eager to participate. Providing generous subsidies too province media promotion, Communist People's Republic of China has made direct rails services a major characteristic of its Belt too Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to bind the the world with Beijing through $1 trillion of novel infrastructure, merchandise agreements, too coordination across countless policy areas. Even countries that have got been reluctant to endorse the BRI have got embraced these novel routes. When a educate from Yiwu, China, arrived inwards London, UK, inwards Jan 2017, The Telegraph called it “a novel chapter inwards the history of the centuries-old trading route,”6 too The Guardian said it “heralds the dawn of a novel commercial era.”7 In the past times ii years, historic firsts have got been celebrated for trains arriving inwards France, Latvia, too Finland, alongside other countries.
These novel services have got captured imaginations, but it remains to endure seen how much merchandise they tin capture. In 2016, rails carried but nether 1 percentage of merchandise betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe past times volume too but over 2 percentage past times value.8 As Figure 2 illustrates, maritime shipping remains dominant, carrying 94 percentage of merchandise past times weight too 64 percentage past times value inwards 2016. Compared to rail, air carry carried twice as much cargo past times weight too to a greater extent than than xiii times past times value inwards 2016. These trends highlight the competitiveness of maritime shipping for low-value goods too the competitiveness of air shipping for high-value goods.
Figure 2a: China-Europe Trade past times Weight (2007-2016)
Source: Eurostat, European Union, analysis performed past times Infrastructure Economics Centre (CEI)
Figure 2b: China-Europe Trade past times Value (2007-2016)
Source: Eurostat, European Union, analysis performed past times Infrastructure Economics Centre (CEI)
The rails services also confront constraints to to a greater extent than dramatic growth. The futurity of Chinese subsidies is uncertain. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 chronic merchandise imbalance betwixt Europe too Communist People's Republic of China agency less need for eastbound services too creates costs for repositioning empty containers. Other developments, including novel airports inwards Asia too improvements to the European Union’s rails network, could comport upon rail’s competitiveness inwards the coming years.
The main challenge inwards squaring all these factors is that despite the attending they receive, in that location is picayune reliable too centralized information nigh these novel services. Frequency of China-Europe rails services, cargo volume, cargo rates, too other basic information is hard to find, especially compared to maritime too air freight data. Many of these shortcomings stalk from the newness of these routes, the complexity inherent inwards moving goods across many borders, too the resulting disaggregation of data. Data could improve inwards the coming years, but in that location are also incentives for obscuring the information. These trains carry non only commercial goods but also political ambitions.
Drawing from interviews with 34 stakeholders, this written report contributes to filling that gap inwards ii parts. First, it examines the ascent of China-Europe railway services too their drivers. China-Europe rails has grown non only inwards terms of origins too destinations but also inwards terms of cargo volume, cargo type, too overall competitiveness. Driving these trends are several political, technical, too technological factors, primary alongside them subsidies too improvements inwards logistics processes. Second, it considers these developments inside a broader merchandise context too identifies several challenges to futurity growth, including merchandise imbalances, capacity constraints, too the enduring strengths of maritime shipping.
Two views emerge from this analysis. The get-go is dramatic growth of the railways inwards recent years. These services are probable to go on growing inwards the coming years. Companies sourcing high-value, time-sensitive products or inputs from Communist People's Republic of China should aspect seriously at whether some of their electrical current render chain should endure shifted to rail. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 narrow laid of countries stand upwards to practice goodness from leveraging their positions as transit hubs. Communist People's Republic of China itself stands to practice goodness politically as good as commercially if these routes acquire sustainable. The instant persuasion is to a greater extent than modest. In broader merchandise terms, these services are less game-changing than often advertised.
Rapid Growth
The growth of direct China-Europe railway services inwards recent years is peculiarly dramatic because the baseline for comparing is closed to zero. Some goods were carried past times rails betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe, mainly via the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR). But transit times were slower too less predictable.9 At change-of-gauge stations, it took longer to transfer cargo from 1 educate to another. Delays also raised the run a risk of theft too made it impractical to carry refrigerated goods. In 2006, the American Chamber of Commerce reported, “The electrical current terra firma carry connections betwixt Asia too Europe practice exist, but they have got no feasible portion of the commercial market.”10
Companies began experimenting with direct services roughly a decade ago.11 In 2008, Foxconn sent its get-go trail educate from Shenzhen to Europe. In 2009, DB Schenker launched a weekly service betwixt Shanghai too Duisburg. After moving its production farther inland to Chongqing, Hewlett Packard began discussing the possibility of a route from Communist People's Republic of China to Federal Republic of Federal Republic of Germany via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, too Poland. The Chongqing authorities was supportive of the idea, but coordination with officials inwards each of those countries was silent required. The formation of the Eurasian Economic Union simplified that procedure inwards 2011, bringing Kazakhstan, Russia, too Republic of Belarus nether the same customs umbrella. Trial shipments were successful toward the goal of 2011, too a regular weekly service began the next year. The service was a “block train,” pregnant that a unmarried shipper, inwards this instance HP, booked the entire train.
From these too other efforts, 3 primary corridors betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe have got emerged. The northern corridor has 3 prongs extending from China, all of which bring together the TSR. The oculus corridor has multiple variations, but all run from Communist People's Republic of China through Kazakhstan. Some stakeholders believe that a nascent southern corridor could develop farther inwards the coming years, stretching to Europe via Central Asia, Iran, Georgia, too Turkey. This would allow European nutrient producers to avoid Russian sanctions, but as many stakeholders noted, the route itself requires important hard too soft infrastructure improvements.
Figure 3: China-Europe Rail Routes too Frequency (2018)
Service frequency is increasing. Last year, in that location were an estimated 1,470 direct freight services from Communist People's Republic of China to Europe too an estimated 730 services from Europe to China.12 As Figure 3 shows, several cities have got multiple departures each day. In China, the most active hubs are often farther inland. The closer rootage too destination points are to the ocean, the stiffer contest they confront from maritime shipping alternatives. Some of late announced routes are silent inwards “trial” phases, too it is unclear whether they volition acquire sustainable. But overall, in that location is a marked increment inwards service frequency compared to a few years ago.
The railways are also carrying a greater attain of cargo, according to several stakeholders. Early services, as illustrated past times the HP too Foxconn examples, often focused on laptops, jail cellular telephone phones, auto parts, too other high-value cargo. These products, peculiarly those produced inwards China’s inland provinces, are silent the main candidates for rails carry because the higher cost for using rails tin endure offset past times lower inventory costs. It is becoming easier to post perishable goods past times rails cheers to “reefer,” or refrigerated, containers. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 niche marketplace inwards shipping hazardous goods, including toxic materials to China, could add together to eastbound freight inwards the coming years.13
Rail has acquire to a greater extent than competitive inwards speed too cost, as Figure 1 showed inwards the previous section. When the American Chamber of Commerce compared China-Europe carry options inwards 2006, rails was non only to a greater extent than expensive but also slower than maritime shipping. As its yardstick for competitiveness, the analysis compared carry options for shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai, China, to Hamburg, Germany. In 2006, that journeying took 36 days past times rail. It at nowadays takes but sixteen days. Cost has declined as well, but non as dramatically as transit time. If anything, the Shanghai-Hamburg comparing is conservative, since it uses ii maritime shipping hubs as the rootage too destination points. Rail could endure fifty-fifty to a greater extent than competitive for origins too destinations farther inland.
Cargo volume too value is rising.14 Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 key evolution is that some block trains have got been replaced past times to a greater extent than flexible offerings, including options to ship less-than-container loads, attracting smaller shippers.15 One major block educate operator, Far East Land Bridge, reports shipping 37,000 40-foot equivalent units (FEUs)16 inwards 2017, upwards from 21,900 FEUs inwards 2016. The same fellowship reported cargo value of to a greater extent than than $160 1 thou 1000 for 2017, a $52 1 thou 1000 jump from 2016.17 Putting aside the eastbound-westbound merchandise imbalance, which a subsequently department considers, these figures are dramatic when compared to previous years. For example, during the get-go half of 2017, cargo value increased 144 percentage compared to the same flow inwards 2016.18 From almost nothing, China-Europe railways have got emerged rapidly.
Drivers
A mix of political, economic, too technical factors are driving these novel services, the exact residual of which varies from route to route. As mentioned earlier, some services have got run only once, only for promotional purposes. Others, peculiarly those farther inland, offering a to a greater extent than competitive oculus pick betwixt maritime too air freight. Overall, however, it is hard to imagine these routes emerging as speedily as they have got inwards recent years without Communist People's Republic of China putting its political too fiscal weight behind them.
Politically, Communist People's Republic of China has used the proclamation of novel routes as evidence that the BRI is succeeding. For the most part, China’s partners are happy to oblige. Foreign leaders readily promote the routes as symbols of deeper ties, regardless of their economical merits. They sympathise that the BRI is President Xi’s signature unusual policy elbow grease too promise that cooperating on a small, fifty-fifty symbolic projection could opened upwards the door to broader cooperation too greater economical gains. Delegations from both countries often celebrate a train’s get-go arrival. Chinese province media reports ofttimes on the novel routes, often lumping together figures for routes betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Central Asia with routes extending farther to Europe.19
China also provides generous subsidies for these routes, making their truthful economical viability to a greater extent than hard to assess. According to reports, subsidies tin attain from $1,000 to $5,000 for each FEU, accounting for upwards to half the total cost.20 One study that examined subsidies inwards 2014 works life an fifty-fifty higher range, upwards to $7,000 per container.21 The same study estimated that China’s provincial governments collectively spent over $300 1 thou 1000 subsidizing China-Europe block trains during 2011 to 2016. That amount is pocket-size when compared to the $113 billion that Communist People's Republic of China plans to pass on its railways inwards 2018.22
To endure sure, Communist People's Republic of China is non the only subsidy provider, nor are shipping subsidies the only avenue for province support. The European Union too its members subsidize both railway infrastructure too operations. Some groups back upwards these measures on social grounds, noting that rails is a to a greater extent than environmentally friendly flat of transportation. But Europe’s subsidies largely predate the emergence of China-Europe railway routes. In contrast, China’s fiscal too political back upwards for these routes has coincided with their rise.
Several market-driven factors have got helped as well. The relocation of Chinese manufacturing facilities farther inland, driven inwards constituent past times rising payoff inwards coastal areas, has encouraged companies similar HP to consider rails shipping. Maritime shipping has acquire slower, as ships “slow steam,” reducing their speed to cutting fuel costs. In aggregate, irksome steaming also pushes downwards the total render for maritime shipping, helping to stabilize shipping prices.23 These developments have got combined to construct rails comparatively to a greater extent than attractive inwards speed too cost, fifty-fifty though maritime shipping retains an border for most goods.
China-Europe railways have got also benefited from broader merchandise trends. During 2007–2016, merchandise betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe grew 7.65 percent.24 The European Union is China’s leading export destination,25 too telecommunication equipment is China’s largest export to the EU. Within the EU, Federal Republic of Federal Republic of Germany is China’s largest trading partner too domicile to several of the most active China-Europe rails hubs. Looking ahead, Chinese exports of some rail-friendly goods to Europe, including high-tech products too automobile parts, are expected to grow faster during 2015–2019 than they did during 2012–2014.26
Growing awareness could also endure contributing to the growth of China-Europe rails services. Chinese province media claim that awareness of the BRI increased from 6 percentage to eighteen percentage betwixt 2014 too 2017 across a sample of 22 countries.27 Promotion of these routes, piece serving China’s political objectives, also makes some commercial sense. Some outreach is necessary to marketplace China-Europe rails as an alternative to other carry modes. After becoming aware, customers also need to endure persuaded to construct the switch. Similar tactics tin endure seen inwards the somebody sector, where Uber too other ride-sharing companies have got subsidized transportation costs to attract customers.
Technical improvements to rails systems too customs processes have got made railway services faster too feasible for a broader attain of goods. Communist People's Republic of China at nowadays has the second-longest railway network inwards the world. In some areas inside China, the expansion of railway networks has outpaced the availability of commercial transport, temporarily increasing the competitiveness of rail. On China’s border too beyond, some infrastructure investments have got helped speed the motion of containers. For example, a relatively novel dry out port at Khorgos, on the China-Kazakh border, processes trains twenty hours faster than an older in conclusion on the same border.28 Temperature-controlled containers at nowadays allow for perishable goods to endure shipped via rail, but the volumes are silent modest. 29 In Feb 2018, for example, Communist People's Republic of China sent its get-go block educate shipment of make to Russia.
Customs too other “soft” infrastructure improvements have got been as of import inwards recent years. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 decade ago, prospective shippers had to coordinate arrangements with each terra firma the railway crossed through. The additive costs of tariffs, permits, duplicative paperwork, mandatory inspections, too other requirements is a primary argue why the routes were barely used. Rail silent requires to a greater extent than paperwork than maritime shipping, but some requirements have got been consolidated with mutual consignment notes. Logistics experts are at nowadays well-versed inwards navigating the remaining barriers too provide translation services for their customers to assist expedite authorities approvals.
Challenges
Viewing the China-Europe railways inwards broader merchandise terms yields a less dramatic picture. Year-on-year railway growth is impressive past times volume, value, too service frequency. But as Figure 2 highlighted inwards the introduction, railways silent carry only a little fraction of merchandise betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe. Maritime shipping remains dominant, too air freight carries to a greater extent than than xiii times the value of goods compared to rail. For the China-Europe railways too their proponents, taking on a much larger portion of merchandise volition require overcoming several economical too technical challenges.
Economically, the biggest challenges are the China-Europe merchandise imbalance too contest from other carry modes. In 2016, the European Union imported over $190 billion to a greater extent than goods from Communist People's Republic of China than it exported to China,30 an imbalance that is reflected inwards rails carry patterns. Stakeholders justice that roughly lx to seventy percentage of railway shipments are westbound, leaving only xxx to xl percentage of shipments eastbound.31 On those eastbound trips, it is non uncommon for containers to endure empty. Other containers are sent dorsum past times sea. To endure sure, this is non a novel problem, nor 1 that is limited to rails or fifty-fifty merchandise betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe. At whatsoever time, some 45 percentage of dry out volume cargo ships, which typically carry commodities, are traveling without cargo.32 The shipping giant Maersk estimates that it spends $1 billion repositioning empty containers each year.33
This province of affairs could modify at the margins inwards the future, but the overall merchandise imbalance volition rest a challenge. Better information analytics could assist trim down empty container costs. Some analysts run into a concern chance for Russia, which could fill upwards empty containers inwards Leningrad too ship them past times sea to Vladivostok.34 Russian Federation could also encourage eastbound merchandise past times lifting sanctions on European Union foodstuffs. Perhaps the most helpful evolution would endure if China’s domestic consumption rises too leads to higher need for European imports. In the meantime, someone volition have got to pick upwards the tab for empty containers.
Rail volition need to compete with air too maritime alternatives. Maritime shipping too air freight provide the cheapest too fastest options, respectively, too it is unclear how many to a greater extent than companies volition pick out the oculus pick that rails provides. Even with rail’s subsidies, maritime shipping is roughly one-third of the cost. Companies are willing to pay only a $200 premium for an improvement inwards 10 days, according to 1 survey.35 Despite these challenges, the International Union of Railways study suggests rail’s growth volition come upwards to a greater extent than from sea than air.36
Other evidence suggests rails poses a greater challenge to air. In public, air-freight executives have got appeared to a greater extent than concerned with China-Europe railways than maritime shipping executives. 37 Given constraints on rail’s capacity, which are considered later, the biggest gains mightiness endure inwards attracting higher-value products. Compared to rail, air carries twice as much cargo past times weight but to a greater extent than than xiii times as much past times value, as Figure 2 highlighted inwards the introduction. If capturing value is rail’s main objective, air is its main competition.
Of course, this modal comparing simplifies a to a greater extent than complex reality on the ground. Road is some other carry option, but it has carried less cargo inwards terms of both value too weight inwards recent years, as Figure 2 showed. The emergence of to a greater extent than rails routes could opened upwards opportunities for multimodal shipping. It is also possible that rails does non significantly alter either electrical current flows past times air or sea, but takes some fraction of their futurity growth. Reflecting these complexities, too the absence of centralized data, in that location was no consensus alongside the stakeholders interviewed for this study as to whether maritime or air freight was the easier target.
The futurity of rails subsidies is a critical factor. Nearly all the stakeholders interviewed for this written report mentioned subsidies as a key driver of recent growth, but they had dissimilar expectations nigh when these subsidies mightiness end. Some believe subsidies could endure phased out inwards 2018 or 2019. Others run into Xi’s term inwards constituent as the primary determinant, too they await subsidies to rest until 2022, too potentially fifty-fifty longer.
China volition probable endeavor to trim down subsidies gradually, rather than doing away with them abruptly. One study estimates that Chinese subsidies average roughly $3,500 per FEU too could endure reduced to $2,500 per FEU without harming operations.38 The International Union of Railways study estimates that China-Europe rails volume volition increment to 218,500 FEU too 371,000 FEU past times 2027,39 inwards pessimistic too optimistic scenarios, respectively. If rails volume rises to those flat too subsidies turn down to $2,500 per FEU, that implies annual subsidies of $546 million–$927 million. Those are little values when compared to the BRI’s overall size, which has been estimated at $1–4 trillion for infrastructure.40 Given the political importance Communist People's Republic of China has attached to these routes, it is possible subsidies could endure justified as an advertising budget for promoting the BRI too China’s paradigm to a greater extent than generally.
Infrastructure too environmental changes inwards the coming years could construct it fifty-fifty to a greater extent than hard for rails to compete. Around 2024, Communist People's Republic of China is projected to flaming the U.S.A. of America as the world’s largest aviation market.41 The expansion of aviation infrastructure volition construct air freight to a greater extent than accessible, including for customers that previously had to pick out betwixt shipping via rails or sea. Maritime shipping may also practice goodness from rising temperatures inwards the Arctic, where sea routes are remaining opened upwards for longer each year. Of course, other changes could run inwards rail’s favor, including marginal improvements due to learning too ameliorate coordination alongside railway operators, in conclusion owners, too national authorities.
Figure 4: Capacity past times Transport Mode
Sources: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, The Geography of Transport Systems; “Containers,” World Shipping Council, 2018.
A basic challenge is that China-Europe trains carry a smaller amount of cargo compared to today’s ships. As Figure iv illustrates, a unmarried block educate tin carry 12 times to a greater extent than than a unmarried aircraft, but only 0.45 percentage as much as today’s largest ship. Obviously, taking on a significantly greater amount of merchandise volition require many to a greater extent than educate trips. Meeting the International Union of Railways study’s optimistic scenario of 371,000 FEU each twelvemonth volition require sending roughly 24 trains a day, a nearly five-fold increment over the 2016 flat of 5 trains per day.
But capacity constraints could stand upwards inwards the way of greater rails volumes. The main challenge is improving rails terminals, peculiarly those at change-of-gauge stations, too the rails scheme inside Europe. Europe too Communist People's Republic of China employ the measure 1,435-mm gauge, whereas Russia, Kazakhstan, too other one-time Soviet states usage a 1,524-mm gauge. The difference inwards gauge agency that no educate travels the total length from Communist People's Republic of China to Europe but rather containers are transferred from 1 educate to another. New rails infrastructure inside Communist People's Republic of China too transfer facilities on its border have got helped alleviate pressure level inwards Asia. As the principal entry betoken into the EU, the Polish too Byelorussian border (Figure 5) is a key chokepoint.42
Figure 5: Chokepoint at the Belarus/Poland border (2017)
These are also capacity challenges inside the European Union railway network. Most of Europe’s rails scheme is significantly older than China’s, too capacity constraints too modernization projects tin create bottlenecks. In 2017, China-Europe trains experienced delays of upwards to 6 days.43 The European Union too its fellow member states are making investments that volition assist alleviate bottlenecks, but these improvements volition have got time. The Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), a European Commission project design to improve transport, outlines actions upwards to 2030.44 Meanwhile, fifty-fifty if these services rest faster overall than maritime shipping, customers value reliability. Delays rest a major run a risk for China-Europe trains, the main selling betoken for which is speed.
Speed Without Scale
This exam of China-Europe railways has provided ii views. The get-go view, considering these services inwards isolation, is dramatic. From virtually nothing, they have got grown rapidly. The network has expanded to link to a greater extent than Chinese too European cities. These services are faster, cheaper, too to a greater extent than frequent. Increasingly, they carry non only to a greater extent than goods but also a greater multifariousness of goods. China’s political too fiscal back upwards has paved the way.
The instant persuasion is to a greater extent than modest. In a broader merchandise context, the China-Europe railways acquaint a novel offering that has non yet grown from niche to mainstream. Future growth is limited past times merchandise imbalances, the comparative value that maritime shipping offers, too infrastructure constraints. None of these challenges is probable to vanish anytime soon. In the meantime, these services volition depend on Chinese subsidies, too the run a risk of delays volition ascent as they grip to a greater extent than cargo.
An optimistic scenario for China-Europe rails growth does non dramatically alter these ii views. If railways double their electrical current portion of merchandise past times value, taking on 2.5 percentage of China-Europe merchandise past times volume, that would endure a major evolution for those involved inwards the rails systems. The sheer size of the China-Europe merchandise relationship, which exchanged some $570 billion inwards goods inwards 2016, agency that pocket-size gains make important sums. Railway manufacturers, owners, operators, logistics firms, too freight forwarders all stand upwards to gain. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 laid of businesses would practice goodness from lower inventory costs. Among cities, those located nigh the routes too inland, farther away from the coastlines, are probable to run into the most gains.
But these changes practice non add together upwards to wide-ranging economical or political impacts. Maritime merchandise volition rest dominant. The vast bulk of the geographic infinite the railways transcend through volition sense no difference. The railways are non roads. They are non as accessible to the full general public, too opportunities to provide services around them are limited. Of course, the world tin practice goodness indirectly from these services, whether through taxes captured past times tariffs or through benefits passed to consumers. But the emergence of China-Europe railways does non signal the render of a the world inwards which overland merchandise dominates. The railways have got works life speed, but their scale remains limited.
About the Author
Jonathan E. Hillman is a swain too manager of the Reconnecting Asia Project at the Center for Strategic too International Studies inwards Washington, D.C.
This written report is produced past times the Center for Strategic too International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt establishment focusing on international world policy issues. Its inquiry is nonpartisan too nonproprietary. CSIS does non have got specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, too conclusions expressed inwards this publication should endure understood to endure solely those of the author(s).
© 2018 past times the Center for Strategic too International Studies. All rights reserved.
1 For a cartographic summary of these developments, see: “Historical Atlas,” Reconnecting Asia, https://reconasia.csis.org/analysis/historical-atlas/.
2 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, “Information from participants on recent developments inwards carry infrastructure priority projects on EATL routes,” May 28, 2015, https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2015/wp5-eatl/id15-05e.pdf.
3 Xiang Bo, “Over 6,200 educate trips made betwixt China, Europe inwards 6 years,” Xinhua, Dec 26, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/26/c_136852817.htm.
4 “New rails routes betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe volition modify merchandise patterns,” The Economist, September, 16, 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/business/21728981-new-silk-railroad-will-challenge-airlines-and-shipping-firms-new-rail-routes-between-china.
5 Roland Berger, “Eurasian Rail Corridors: What Opportunities for Freight Stakeholders?” International Union of Railways, Oct 2017, https://uic.org/IMG/pdf/corridors_exe_sum2017_web.pdf.
6 Patrick Sawer, “East Wind educate blows inwards from Communist People's Republic of China to re-open Silk Road trail,” The Telegraph, Jan 18, 2017, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/east-wind-train-blows-china-re-open-silk-road-trail/.
7 Tracy McVeigh, “Silk Road route dorsum inwards concern as Communist People's Republic of China educate rolls into London,” The Guardian, Jan 14, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/14/china-silk-road-trade-train-rolls-london.
8 Vladimir Kosoy, “A Future of EU-EAEU-China Cooperation inwards Trade too Railway Transport,” Infrastructure Economics Centre, https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2017/wp5/WP5_30th_session_Mr_Kosoy.pdf.
9 Chamber of Commerce of United States, “Land Transport Options betwixt Europe too Asia: Commercial Feasibility Study,” July 2006, http://www.osce.org/eea/41310?download=true.
10 Ibid.
11 Wade Shepard, “How Those China-Europe ‘Silk Road’ Trains First Began,” Forbes, June 29, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/06/29/the-story-of-how-those-china-europe-silk-road-trains-first-began/#523ac36f1734.
12 SinoTrans Limited, “Introduction of Rail Transportation Business,” June 2, 2017, https://fiata.com/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/recent_views/Working_Group_OSJD_FIATA/OSJD-FIATA_Odessa_2_June_2017_-_Presentation_Zhao_Ning.pdf.
13 CSIS interviews, Nov 2017–February 2018.
14 CSIS interviews, Nov 2017–February 2018.
15 Greg Knowler, “China-Europe rails shippers displace from promotion hoc to contracts,” Journal of Commerce, Jan 17, 2018, https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/shift-china-europe-rail-strategy-shippers-move-service-contracts_20180117.html.
16 Standard shipping containers are twenty feet long or xl feet long, referred to as 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) too 40-foot equivalent units (FEUs), respectively.
17 Far East Land Bridge, “Container transportation betwixt Asia too Europe via the Trans-Siberian Railway,” http://felb.world/felb_htm_files/Company_presentation_WEBSITE_english.pdf.
18 “New rails routes betwixt Communist People's Republic of China too Europe volition modify merchandise patterns,” The Economist, September, 16, 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/business/21728981-new-silk-railroad-will-challenge-airlines-and-shipping-firms-new-rail-routes-between-china.
19 “New China-Europe freight educate links China’s Jiangxi, Uzbekistan,” Xinhua, July 9, 2017, http://db.silkroad.news.cn/en/2017/0710/295311.shtml.
20 Keith Barrow, “China-Europe rails freight: inwards it for the long-haul,” International Railway Journal, Jan 17, 2018, http://www.railjournal.com/index.php/freight/china-europe-rail-freight-in-it-for-the-long-haul.html. See also: Eugene Gerden, “China may heavily subsidize container rails shipments to Russia,” JOC, Jan 29, 2016, http://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/international-rail/asia/china-may-heavily-subsidize-container-rail-shipments-russia_20160129.html.
21 Babak Besharati et al., “The Ways to Maintain Sustainable China-Europe Block Train Operation,” Business too Management Studies 3, no. 3 (September 2017): https://doi.org/10.11114/bms.v3i3.2490.
22 “China targets 2018 rails investment of $113 billion, lowest since 2013,” Reuters, Jan 1, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rail/china-targets-2018-rail-investment-of-113-billion-lowest-since-2013-idUSKBN1ER042.
23 “Slow Steaming Could Be Best Bet for CO2 Reductions,” The Maritime Executive, Oct 18, 2017, https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/study-slow-steaming-may-be-best-bet-for-co2-reductions#gs.BcaT6wo.
24 Eurostat, European Commission, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
25 Eurostat, “China-EU—international merchandise inwards goods statistics,” http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/China-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics.
26 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, “Draft written report of the stage III of the Euro-Asian Transport Links project,” Jan 20, 2017, http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2017/wp5-eatl/eatl_id17-01e.pdf.
27 Martin Guo, “2016–2017 Communist People's Republic of China National Image Global Survey,” Kantar, Jan 11, 2018. https://us.kantar.com/business/brands/2018/2016-2017-china-national-image-global-survey/.
28 United Nations Economic too Social Commission for Asia too the Pacific, “Development of seamless rail-based intermodal carry services inwards Northeast too Central Asia,” Apr 2016, http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Seamless%20Transport%20report_Kazakhstan.pdf.
29 Greg Knowler, “China’s get-go perishables block educate leaves for Russia,” JOC, Feb 8, 2018, https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/international-rail/europe/china%E2%80%99s-first-perishables-block-train-leaves-russia_20180208.html.
30 The European Commission, “China,” http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/china/.
31 CSIS interviews, Nov 2017–February 2018.
32 Giulia Brancaccio, Myrto Kalouptsidi, too Theodore Papageorgiou, “Geography, Search Frictions too Endogenous Trade Costs,” The National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2017, http://www.nber.org/papers/w23581.
33 Peter Buxbaum, “Getting a Handle on Containers,” Global Trade, September 14, 2016, http://www.globaltrademag.com/global-logistics/getting-handle-containers.
34 Besharati et al., “The Ways to Maintain Sustainable China-Europe Block Train Operation.”
35 Dan He too Wenchao Li, “Measures on Sustainable Development of Communist People's Republic of China Railway Express Driven past times Port Cities,” Communist People's Republic of China Business too Market 30, no. 265, (October 2016): http://zglt.chinajournal.net.cn/WKB3/WebPublication/paperDigest.aspx?paperID=1d0915d8-ceee-440e-8a94-b6572bc73993.
36 Berger, “Eurasian Rail Corridors: What Opportunities for Freight Stakeholders?”
37 For example: “China-Europe rails freight poses a growing threat to air cargo,” Railway Gazette, March 16, 2017, http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/freight/single-view/view/china-europe-rail-freight-poses-a-growing-threat-to-air-cargo.html; too Greg Knowler, “Belt too Road: Rail growth expected to have got picayune lawsuit on container carriers,” IHS, Nov 30, 2017, https://fairplay.ihs.com/container/article/4294601/belt-and-road-rail-growth-expected-to-have-little-effect-on-container-carriers.
38 Besharati et al., “The Ways to Maintain Sustainable China-Europe Block Train Operation.”
39 Berger, “Eurasian Rail Corridors: What Opportunities for Freight Stakeholders?”
40 “Our bulldozers, our rules,” The Economist, July 2, 2016, https://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules. Some estimates for fully implementing the BRI are fifty-fifty higher, reaching $8 trillion.
41 International Air Transport Association, “IATA Forecasts Passenger Demand to Double over twenty Years,” Oct 28, 2016, http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2016-10-18-02.aspx.
42 CSIS interviews, Nov 2017–February 2018.
43 Greg Knowler, “Rising Asian volumes choke Europe rails terminals,” JOC, August 9, 2017, https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/international-rail/asia/rising-asian-volumes-choke-europe-rail-terminals_20170809.html.
44 European Commission: Mobility too Transport, “About TEN-T,” March 15, 2018, https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/infrastructure/about-ten-t_en.
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