By Anthony Cordesman
The Broader Range of North Korean Threats
Any endeavor to await beyond North Korea’s nuclear threat must address the fact that nosotros alive inwards an historic flow of unconventional too asymmetric warfare, too 1 inwards which that warfare may withdraw keep a political and/or economical cast or hold upwardly prolonged too a state of war of attrition. It must also consider the grim lessons of recent wars. The toll to civilians may become far beyond the number of dead too wounded from straight military machine attacks inwards some relatively brief, intense conflict. It may hold upwardly economic, it may hold upwardly the touching on of existence turned into refugees too displaced persons, too it may hold upwardly a tremendous loss of national wealth, security, too the services that back upwardly modern urban life, education, too health.
We are also dealing amongst a threat inwards Democratic People's Republic of Korea that has a long, proven runway tape of pushing massive threat too low-level attacks to the border of war. It is sometimes called irrational for doing so, but inwards exercise it has too thence far been able to accomplish consistent benefits for its leaders – albeit at considerable toll to its people. Kim Jong-un does withdraw keep serious risks, but it is of import to annotation that he is 1 of the world’s alone 3rd generation dictators, too builds on nearly seventy years of using serious military machine threats too actual military machine probes, tests, attacks, too assassinations that withdraw keep kept his authorities inwards powerfulness too given it political condition too success.
The Committee should also consider the fact that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is organized for unconventional too asymmetric warfare, equally good equally for theater-level nuclear too conventional conflict. It tin bathroom job weapons of majority devastation too focus on majority casualties. It tin bathroom also job biological warfare inwards ways that may hold upwardly equally lethal equally or to a greater extent than lethal than nuclear weapons, or inwards a broad arrive at of scenarios that become from intimidation to express attacks to articulation job of nuclear too biological weapons. This is why I withdraw keep prepared a tilt for the tape that focuses on the fundamental risks too uncertainties involved, too the arrive at of options that Democratic People's Republic of Korea mightiness exploit inwards using such weapons.
At the same time, Democratic People's Republic of Korea tin bathroom inflict major casualties using to a greater extent than conventional weapons similar massed, sustained artillery burn downwards because of Seoul’s proximity to the DMZ, too intensely concentrated urban populations inwards other parts of the country. It could sharply increment such casualties yesteryear using chemic weapons – too peradventure biological weapons equally well—in a straight burn downwards mode.
South Korea’s Vulnerabilities
Most strategic analysis tends to focus on military machine balances, deterrence, too warfighting, too non the vulnerability too toll to civilian populations. When estimates are made of civilian casualties, many lack credible modeling too information too are lilliputian to a greater extent than than guesstimates. The fact remains, however, that Republic of Korea is an ally amongst some unique vulnerabilities.
South Korea has a relatively large full population—some 51 1000000 compared to alone about 25 1000000 for North Korea. This population compares amongst alone about 21 1000000 at the fourth dimension of the Korean War, too 1 that was heavily agricultural too to some extent self-sustaining inwards rural areas. Today the population is over 80% urbanized—only nearly 5% of locomote forcefulness is inwards agriculture. Over 70% is inwards largely urban services, too most of the ease inwards manufacturing. Like most Americans, it is a population geared to modern life inwards a province amongst a $2 trillion dollar gross domestic product inwards PPP terms, and
$1.4 trillion inwards Market gross domestic product terms. Peacetime living standards are high amid global standards. Republic of Korea has a gross domestic product per capita of $38,000.
To position these figures inwards perspective, the CIA estimates that Democratic People's Republic of Korea has a gross domestic product of alone $45-50 billion inwards PPP price too $30 billion inwards marketplace or unusual telephone substitution terms, too a per capita income of alone $1,700-1,800 per capita—with much of its wealth concentrated inwards its leaders, safety forces, political party members, too present slice capital.
South Korea also is extremely theme on the constant flow of trade. South Korean exports full good over $500 million, too imports full over $400 million. Like Japan., Republic of Korea is critically theme on its seaports too airports for trade, but also for its unloose energy supplies. It economic scheme is also “fragile” inwards the feel that the secure flow of merchandise movement, too services is exactly equally critical equally inwards whatever major American city.
The Risks Inherent inwards a Major War Involving a Modern Urbanized Trading Nation
South Korea’s population forthwith lives inwards a province that is highly developed, but is also 1 where around 70% of the province is considered mountainous too it is concentrated inwards cities inwards the lowland areas, where the population density is real high inwards a express number of target areas where displaced persons too refugees withdraw keep few exterior alternatives amongst whatever serious surplus capability to provide food, shelter, too services. Its population density also varies sharply inwards the areas nearest to North Korea. Gyeonggi Province inwards the northwest, which surrounds the upper-case missive of the alphabet of Seoul too contains the port of Incheon, is the most densely populated province. Gangwon inwards the northeast is the to the lowest degree populated.
The greater Seoul expanse solitary has a population of over 25 million—close to one-half the 51 1000000 population of the ROK too a far larger population than all of its other cities combined. More than 10 1000000 people alive inwards its metropolis limits, too its nub has a population density of good over 17,000 to people per foursquare kilometer too 45,000 per foursquare mile—twice the density of New York, iv times that of Los Angeles, too 8 times that of Rome. Just 1 of its 25 districts has 680,000 people. According to some sources, it is the largest unmarried urban complex inwards the gratis world.
While Seoul is the fundamental to the ROK’s curt arrive at vulnerability, 5 other urban centers also define South Korea’s broader vulnerabilities too powerfulness to ride-out too recover from a major conflict. The CIA World Factbook lists the population of these cities equally follows: Busan (Pusan) 3.216 million; Incheon (Inch'on) 2.685 million; Daegu (Taegu) 2.244 million; Daejon (Taejon) 1.564 million; too Gwangju (Kwangju) 1.536 1000000 (2015). These cities do non withdraw keep the sheer scale of urban sprawl of many American cities, and—coupled amongst South Korea’s high levels of development– this adds to its urban too national vulnerability.
South Korea’s demand for secure maritime routes too ports too air traffic too airports also adds to its vulnerability. Republic of Korea depends on secure maritime too reason transit/access traffic to vii seaport(s): Busan, Incheon, Gunsan, Kwangyang, Mokpo, Pohang, Ulsan, Yeosu. It depends on 3 major container port(s) (TEUs): Busan (19,469,000), Kwangyang (2,327,000), Incheon (2,368,000) (2015). It tin bathroom behave naval raids, job midget or other submarines, too job cargo ships to release floating mines—as Islamic Republic of Iran did inwards 1987-1988. It is unclear that it has smart mines, but—if it does—any shipping amongst a imitation flag or submarine could release mines that ease on the bottom, can
be laid to activate at intervals, too rising upwardly too smasher given types of ships based on their sonic signature.
The CIA reports that electrical flow air traffic volume is 65+ 1000000 passengers a yr too 11.2 billion metric tons-km. Republic of Korea has 71 airports, but alone 4 major airports, too upwardly to xix others that mightiness grip some additional traffic. At to the lowest degree twoscore are unpaved or unsuitable for long-range traffic. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few Man Portable SAM firings or aerodrome killings could withdraw keep a major touching on inwards price of wars of intimidation too threat too counter threats.
At a higher threshold of conflict, North Korea’s electrical flow long-range conventional weapons appear to withdraw keep sudden limits on their powerfulness to smasher dot targets, but a number of reports arrive clear that Democratic People's Republic of Korea is developing a arrive at of precision ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, too UCAVs too some reports betoken such capabilities may already exist.
Precision strikes amongst conventional warheads on South Korea’s powerfulness grid, H2O purification too distribution facilities, sanitation facilities, fundamental bridges too rail/road links, too fundamental communications points could plough such weapons into “weapons of majority effectiveness.” Sabotage, terrorism, or special forces raids could also withdraw keep major impact.
The same is truthful of South Korea’s unloose energy situation. It gets 71% of its powerfulness from fossil fuels, too 21% from nuclear plants. It needs prophylactic facilities to import 90%+ of its natural gas too about 3 MMB of unsmooth oil plus 900,000 bpd inwards crude products. Moreover, Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) too environmental impact assessment reports that 3 of the 10 largest unsmooth oil refineries inwards earth are located inwards South Korea, making it 1 of Asia's largest crude production exporters – equally much equally 1.3 mbpd. Republic of Korea also depends heavily on imports from half-dozen LNG terminals: Incheon, Kwangyang, Pyeongtaek, Samcheok, Tongyeong, too Yeosu.
There are other areas of special vulnerability. Republic of Korea is an “Internet society” amongst nearly 90% Internet access. There is no credible means to stair out the cyber vulnerability of its economic scheme too critical infrastructure, but it could hold upwardly great. Some yesteryear estimates withdraw keep downplayed North Korea’s capabilities inwards these areas, but experts forthwith query the extent to which Democratic People's Republic of Korea has created an effective elite of attackers, too how hard it is to create cadres that tin bathroom exploit the weaknesses too vulnerabilities inwards civilian information technology systems too networks. These are areas where at that spot are severe opened upwardly rootage limits to assessments of the capabilities of the KPA General Staff Department too Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), equally good equally the Ministry of State Security. Some South Korean sources claimed, however, inwards 2015 that Democratic People's Republic of Korea had around 5,900 personnel engaged inwards cyber warfare.
War too the Greater Seoul Region
One genuinely successful nuclear or biological laid on on Seoul solitary could cripple South Korea’s recovery capability for a decade, too create massive problems inwards the curt term for the global economic scheme that could severely confine South Korea’s powerfulness to recover its markets too merchandise over time. Nuclear strikes on 2 to 3 cities would heighten serious questions nearly South Korea’s powerfulness to recover over time, equally would distributing infectious or highly lethal biological agents.
South Korea’s real success, however, makes it highly vulnerable to a major conventional invasion too highly vulnerable to a arrive at of unconventional attacks. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 reason state of war that swept downwards into Seoul too the eastern business office of the DMZ expanse could withdraw keep far worse displacement problems than earth has seen inwards Syria, Iraq, or Republic of Yemen – mountains, yesteryear sea, loss of fundamental aerodrome too possible ports. As other recent wars withdraw keep shown, water, power, sanitation, food, medical services, shelter, too whatever cast of safety too pedagogy for children would all hold upwardly critical issues.
As the fighting inwards Mosul too other Iraqi, Syrian, too Yemeni cities has of late shown, conventional warfare tin bathroom all likewise easily ruin the safety of millions, too kill or cripple thousands of others inwards the procedure that are never reported equally casualties of war.
This is why too thence many studies of the North Korean warn of the threat posed yesteryear North Korean shelter artillery posts close the DMZ. These artillery positions tin bathroom hold upwardly equally a unopen equally 54 kilometers—33 miles from City center. North Korea, however, has a steadily increasing stock of multiple rocket launchers amongst much longer ranges, too some sources credit them amongst chemic too fifty-fifty biological warheads.
According to unclassified sources similar IHS Janes, at that spot are HARTS (hardened artillery shelters) all along DMZ tailored to portion too topography. These hardened artillery sites are fortified fighting positions amongst gun emplacements, personnel shelters, burn downwards direction centers, trenches for self-defense too communication, too protective embrace for prime number movers to alter weapons locations. Each weapon has its sheltered emplacement too ammunition provide amongst connecting passages too emplacements tailored to the local terrain too angles of fire. They are defended amongst wire too minefields. In many cases, it would withdraw keep world penetrators to destroy them too a delivery scheme amongst line-of-sight or imagery links to target therm.
To quote from a recent IHS Jane’s report,
North Korea possesses the largest rocket too ballistic missile forcefulness inwards the developing world. Within North Korea, ballistic missiles (i.e., Hwasong-6/-7, KN-02/-10, too KN-07/-08/-14) are controlled yesteryear the Strategic Force (see Strategic Weapon Systems), too artillery rockets are controlled yesteryear the General Staff too its Artillery Bureau.
Since 2010, Democratic People's Republic of Korea has developed too deployed (sometimes inwards real express numbers) novel versions of 122 mm, 240 mm too 300 mm MRL systems. The most pregnant of these is the eight-round (in two, four-round, pods) 300 mm system, which reportedly has a arrive at inwards excess of 100 km too may employ a GPS guidance system.
Some estimates almost sure sharply exaggerate the likely number of straight casualties from the conventional job of such weapons, but straight military machine deaths are scarcely the alone stair out of human suffering. Moreover, Democratic People's Republic of Korea has 2 other methods of unconventional laid on that merit serious examination, but where unclassified reporting has severe – if non critical– limits.
The casualty, panic, too disruption impacts of such attacks would also hold upwardly far greater if Democratic People's Republic of Korea used chemic and/or biological weapons. The opened upwardly rootage reporting on such North Korean capabilities is highly questionable. These issues are discussed inwards special for biological weapons inwards split testimony.
Reports that Democratic People's Republic of Korea has stockpiled equally many equally twenty unlike chemic agents appear to sharply exaggerate the threat. However, Democratic People's Republic of Korea likely does withdraw keep a substantial stockpile of artillery rounds, rockets, missiles too bombs that tin bathroom deliver effective persistent expanse denial weapons similar Mustard Gas that could kill many civilians equally well, too both short-term too persistent versions of nervus agents. Even a few rounds of such weapons could easily create massive panic, too a major barrage could hold upwardly a genuinely horrifying killing mechanism.
Special Forces, DMZ Tunnel, too Intelligence Branch Attacks
Again, the details inwards opened upwardly rootage information are questionable. However, the broad nature of the threat is not. IHS Janes also reports that Democratic People's Republic of Korea has built around 20-25 such tunnels nether the DMZ, too alone iv withdraw keep been publicly identified too neutralized yesteryear South Korean/US forces. One of the tunnels that has been discovered had a full length of 3,300 meters, too went 1,100 meters into South Korean territory. It was 50-150 meters deep, too 2 meters yesteryear 2 meters. Janes reports that equally many equally 8,000 troops an hr could displace through them.
Sudden raids into the Seoul expanse mightiness never come upwardly unopen to taking the city, but could withdraw keep a massive disruptive effect. Moreover, such tunnels mightiness hold upwardly used to infiltrate large numbers of Special Forces who mightiness hold upwardly able to transcend equally civilians. According to IHS Janes too the IISS, Democratic People's Republic of Korea is reported to withdraw keep some 200,000 Special forces, organized into some 60,000 “storm” troops too 140,000 calorie-free infantries. IHS Janes quotes General Walter Sharp, who in 1 lawsuit commanded the South Korean-US Combined Forces Command equally proverb inwards 2014 that, "The havoc-raising potential of North Korea's special forces has grown equally their numbers withdraw keep increased too their preparation has shifted to terrorist tactics developed yesteryear insurgents inwards Republic of Iraq too Afghanistan...They are real capable, too they volition employ these tactics." Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 major infiltration into the Seoul expanse mightiness never succeed inwards classic military machine terms, but could hold upwardly intensely disruptive too withdraw keep a major civil impact.
There also serious questions equally to whether Democratic People's Republic of Korea has sleepers or trained infiltrators exterior its special forces inwards organization similar its KPA General Staff Department too Reconnaissance General Bureau. Again, to focus on opened upwardly rootage material, HIS janes reports that the RGB is the primary organization tasked amongst collecting unusual tactical too strategic intelligence, too co- coordinating or conducting all external special operations. It also exercises operational command over agents engaged inwards military machine tidings activities too oversees the training, maintenance, too deployment of guerrilla teams available for functioning inwards the south.
Guarding a Strategic Partner too Ally
It should hold upwardly apparent that this analysis does focus on “worst cases” to some degree. One of the grim realities of war, however, is that state of war later on state of war has escalated to a real-world “worst case” that none of those who launched or planned for the conflict intended. It is also likely fair to state that all major wars withdraw keep been “unconventional” inwards price of the actual fighting relative to the plans too intentions of the actors that began them.
If nada else, the risks described inwards this testimony, too that are the focus of this committee, should remind us that nosotros all withdraw keep a deep moral too ethical responsibleness to Republic of Korea too all of our strategic partners. We must non exactly excogitation to deter, or to win at a tactical or kinetic level. We must excogitation to do everything nosotros tin bathroom to protect an ally or partner’s civilians too living standards equally well.
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