With Putin’s Russian Federation on the nigh horizon, Baltic countries must organize inwards anticipation of a threat. But the area’s complex geography creates a challenge beyond the Great Bear. Central Europe’s geopolitical profile has changed significantly over the past times xxx years, most noticeably equally its frontier shifts eastward. During the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact occupied most of the eastern in addition to southern coasts, closing the Baltic Sea to Western powers, piece Kingdom of Denmark in addition to Kingdom of Norway constituted the northwestern flank. Today, Russian Federation holds only vii per centum of the Baltic coastline, amongst its maritime stance stretched betwixt the eastern business office of the Gulf of Republic of Finland in addition to an isolated enclave inwards Kaliningrad. With enlarged alliances, the N should locomote considered equally 2 sub-theaters—Arctic in addition to Baltic—because although real interconnected, the Scandinavian Peninsula acts equally a shield roofing both the Kola Peninsula in addition to the Baltic Sea.1 In damage of the Baltic countries’ political aspirations, all except Russia, Finland, in addition to Sweden are members of NATO; all except Russian Federation are members of the European Union (EU); all Baltic European Union members except Kingdom of Denmark are participating inwards the EU’s defence strength cooperation. Absent geographical cohesion, this creates a complex province of affairs that should locomote discussed both on a case-by-case reason in addition to equally a regional whole.
Finland
Militarily in addition to economically, Republic of Finland has the greatest exposure amongst Russia, running from the Baltic to virtually the Arctic Ocean. In addition, to a greater extent than than fourscore per centum of Finnish merchandise is transported on the Baltic Sea, then whatever armed forces scenario betwixt Russian Federation in addition to Kingdom of Norway would receive got severe consequences for Finland.2
The Gulf of Republic of Finland in addition to the Åland Islands, lying at the entrance of the Gulf of Bothnia, are key to agreement the Russians’ actions inwards the region. The islands were a business office of the 1856 Paris Treaty that ended the Crimean War in addition to created a demilitarized area, in addition to receive got fallen nether the responsibleness of Finnish defence strength forces. The Russians are aware of Finland’s powerfulness to unopen the Gulf of Republic of Finland in addition to disrupt merchandise heading into in addition to out of Leningrad inwards the lawsuit of a conflict.3 From the Russian viewpoint, possession of Finland’s southward coast in addition to Åland Islands would allow it to command the Gulf of Bothnia, exploit the Gulf of Republic of Finland for its ain purposes, in addition to station its shore-based air defenses to encompass the key Baltic Sea.
Sweden
Sweden in addition to Republic of Finland oftentimes are considered strategic partners inwards the eyes of NATO, but from a geopolitical standpoint their positions receive got been significantly unlike since the advent of the Cold War. 4 Sweden has a considerable total of shoreline on both the eastern in addition to western borders of the province and, inwards the lawsuit of a closure of the Baltic Sea, could all the same access the North Sea.
Sweden’s largest island, Gotland, plays an of import role inwards agreement Russian opportunities. Historically, Gotland has been a merchant station on the east-west merchandise route. Sweden latterly placed a mechanized companionship of reason forces on the isle permanently, for both grooming in addition to defence strength purposes. Sweden fears that inwards the instance of hostilities inwards the Baltic, the Russians powerfulness outset seek to occupy the isle to deploy shore-based air defence strength systems in addition to hold NATO out of the Baltic Sea. 5
Denmark
Geographically, Kingdom of Denmark sits at the rima oris of the Baltic Sea, in addition to thence holds the keys to its entrance. In addition, the 61-mile-long Kiel Canal traverses the country, connecting the North Sea amongst the Baltic. The Warsaw Pact planned to utilization the Danish Straits in addition to deport operations inwards the North Sea, which complicated NATO naval forces inwards supplying the Central Front. Russian Federation signaled the intent to target Denmark’s waterways in addition to vulnerabilities during do Zapad 2013, but contemporary Russian Federation is non the Cold War-era Soviet Union in addition to that scenario tin locomote seen equally 2nd priority inwards consideration of the Danish isle of Bornholm. Within curt make of Kaliningrad, the northern in addition to southern narrows of Bornholm are most suitable to interrupting transportation to the key in addition to eastern Baltic.
Baltic States
From Central Europe’s perspective, the Baltic States are a narrow peninsula betwixt Russian Federation in addition to the Baltic Sea. They are connected to Poland only past times the so-called Suwalki gap—roughly 44 miles of mutual borderline betwixt Republic of Lithuania in addition to Poland, flanked past times Kaliningrad inwards the due west in addition to Republic of Belarus inwards the east.
The Baltic States lack strategic depth. After crossing the Russian-Estonian border, a Su-24 flight a low-altitude ready on profile at speed would convey x minutes to make the main air base of operations inwards Ämari, inwards northern Estonia. half-dozen The entire peninsula is highly exposed to conventional land, air, in addition to body of body of water power, intensified past times the fact that the private countries lack the powerfulness to defend themselves independently. Recently, the RAND Corporation used U.S. of A. Naval Air Forces, Atlantic, wargames to guess that Russian reason forces could locomote at the outskirts of the Estonian working capital missive of the alphabet of Tallinn or Latvian working capital missive of the alphabet of Riga inwards 36–60 hours. 7
The Estonian islands of Hiiumaa in addition to Saaremaa potentially could locomote used to encompass the air defence strength gap inwards key Baltic, in addition to are less defended amidst other Baltic islands, such equally Gotland in addition to Åland. Estonia’s main strength is its geography: situated at the southern rima oris of the Gulf of Finland, an Estonian presence could block the gulf in addition to sever H2O access to St. Petersburg.
Russia
Russia’s strategic objective inwards the Baltic Sea would locomote to accomplish body of body of water command inwards the early on stages of whatever conflict in addition to block NATO forces from the area. The ways in addition to agency for creating that inwards the Baltic share are dictated past times geography. Regardless of the surround of the actual attack—land, air, or sea—NATO would receive got a geographical challenge securing the entire area. Control of the Baltic Sea would give NATO 2 variety out furnish lines to the Baltic States: from the North Atlantic through the North in addition to Baltic seas, in addition to also over reason through Germany, Poland, in addition to the Suwalki gap.
NATO soon is able to influence the Baltic share past times flight strike missions or firing cruise missiles from the North or Norwegian seas (this final pick pending access to Swedish airspace), leaving Russian Federation amongst an air defence strength problem. Russia’s biggest vulnerability inwards the share is Kaliningrad—a heavily armed outpost for Russia, surrounded past times NATO territory in addition to the sea. Russian land-based air defenses from Kaliningrad in addition to Leningrad leave of absence the key business office of the body of body of water uncovered, in addition to equally Russian Federation does non yet possess expanse air defence strength capabilities afloat, it needs Gotland, Åland, or Estonian islands to locomote a meaning threat. 8
Although Russian Federation is the keen of Europe, this human relationship is converse: l per centum of its unusual merchandise is transported on the Baltic in addition to xl per centum of the European Union’s natural gas comes from Russia. Economically, the Baltic Sea is a huge highway, amongst about 3,500 vessels traversing it at whatever given time. 9In 2012, Baltic ports handled nine per centum of goods transported globally, in addition to to a greater extent than than one-half of the Baltic merchandise is carried past times sea. Any conflict fought on the Baltic Sea potentially would unopen downwards the share economically. If Russian Federation were to seek greater domination of the region, it could aim to do then through nonviolent means. Russian Federation is prone to prefer nontraditional ways in addition to means, in addition to the Baltic Sea offers a multitude of options for doing that. 10
NATO
NATO’s responsibleness inwards the Baltic has only continued to grow inwards reach in addition to complexity since the Cold War era. One of the biggest challenges is putting standing forces inwards the region. The body of body of water is technically equally good small, equally good easily closed, in addition to equally good subjected for regulation surface combatants during a conflict. eleven After the Cold War, Kingdom of Denmark in addition to FRG turned their focus toward bluish water, in addition to largely lost capabilities suitable for the Baltic Sea. Newer NATO members receive got non yet managed to create capabilities inwards the area. 12 There are thence few platforms optimized for Baltic operations inwards NATO’s inventory, in addition to those include smaller surface combatants, land-based aircraft, conventional submarines, mines, in addition to coastal defence strength missiles.
Although NATO has stationed reason forces—one battalion inwards each of the Baltic states in addition to Poland—these forces are susceptible inwards the lawsuit of ready on inwards that they postulate to locomote reinforced speedily in addition to heavily or else could locomote sitting ducks. xiii This resupply in addition to reinforcement tin locomote conducted only past times sea. For major reason operations, command of the Baltic Sea is of vital involvement for both sides. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 precondition for body of body of water command in addition to reason operations is a suitable province of affairs inwards the air, in addition to whatever activity taken against Kaliningrad would require an air campaign. The battle for the Baltic volition locomote decided on the body of body of water in addition to inwards the air.
In a worst-case scenario, NATO could locomote caught off guard in addition to postulate to struggle its way through to the eastern Baltic. The illustration of Republic of Malta during World War II shows that it tin locomote done, but is extremely costly. An alternative would locomote to convey defeat in addition to negotiate a withdrawal, but that would signal the destination of NATO.
NATO’s province of affairs inwards the share would locomote solely unlike if Republic of Finland in addition to Sweden joined the alliance, inwards which instance the Baltic Sea would locomote NATO’s mare nostrum. Both countries receive got signed a host nation memorandum of agreement amongst NATO, allowing NATO forces to utilization Swedish in addition to Finnish territory inwards times of crisis in addition to conflict. The escalation of Russian activities tardily are pushing world opinions inwards both countries toward NATO, but accession in all probability volition non locomote on inwards the foreseeable future.
Prepare Now
Baltic geography makes the employment for NATO in addition to possible solutions to it to a greater extent than challenging than during the Cold War era. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 precondition for decisive Blue Planet activity is command of the Baltic Sea in addition to the air to a higher house it. NATO needs the powerfulness to engage inwards a really joint, multidomain battle, in addition to an all-arms, all-services conception that stresses cooperation amongst local countries. The challenge of organizing the Baltic countries in addition to states inwards the confront of a Russian surprise is matched only inwards complexity past times the area’s geography.
1. Luis Simón, “Assessing NATO’s Eastern European ‘Flank,’” Parameters 44(3), autumn 2014, 70.
2. Kenneth Nyholm, Itämeren alueen turvallisuuden kehityus, Rannikon Puolustaja 1, 2013, 16.
3. Ibid., 18.
4. J. C. Danckwardt, “Skandinaviens marinstrategiska betydelse,” Tiskrift i Sjöväsenet Nr 11., 1969, 666.
5. “ Öppet Nato-gräl när utredningen presenterades, ” Svenska Dagbladet, nine September 2016.
6. Ralph S. Clem, “Geopolitics in addition to Planning for a High-End Fight,” Air in addition to Space Power Journal, jump 2016, 80.
7. David A. Shlapak in addition to Michael W. Johnson, “Reinforcing the Defense on NATO´s Eastern Flank,” RAND Corporation, 2016, 4.
8. Dmitry Gorenburg, “ Russian Naval Air Defense inwards Trouble ,” 28 July 2016,
9. Fabrice Pothier, “An Area-Access Strategy for NATO,” Survival, June–July 2017, 78.
10. Martin Murphy, Frank Hoffman, in addition to Gary Schaub, “Hybrid Maritime Warfare in addition to the Baltic Sea Region” (University of Copenhagen: Center for Military Studies), Nov 2016.
11. Julian Lindley-French, “Seapower inwards the Baltic Sea, Proceedings from the Kiel Conference 2015,” Institute for Security Policy, Kiel University.
12. Christopher Coker in addition to C. Ann-Sofie Dahl, “NATO in addition to Baltic Sea Security,” (University of Copenhagen: Center for Military Studies), 2016.
13. Pothier, “An Area-Access Strategy for NATO,” 74.
Lieutenant Commander Laanemets is a graduate of the Royal Danish Naval Academy in addition to holds a master’s flat inwards maritime studies from Tallinn University of Technology. He soon is serving equally the main of staff Standing NATO Mine Countermeasure Group 1.
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