By Jakub Janovský
Over the course of didactics of 7 years of war, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has engaged inwards armed conflict against diverse opposition forces composed of domestic rebels too unusual volunteers, oft equipped alongside calorie-free weapons. Given the sheer amount of opened upward root information available related to these events, it is possible to rails the military machine vehicle losses of the SAA — an solid soil forces which i time had the sixth largest issue of tanks inwards the world. Before outlining the armoured tracked vehicle losses that tin lavatory live confirmed past times visual evidence (photos too videos), the methodology of collecting the information volition live examined. The article ends alongside a give-and-take on the reasons why the SAA may take keep lost so many armoured tracked vehicles.
A T-72 AV Soviet second-generation primary battle tank of the Syrian Arab Army close the edge alongside Israel. Date unknown.
General Information on the SAA’s Armoured Vehicles
To sympathise the context of the armoured tracked vehicles losses inwards the Syrian Civil War, it is of import to briefly beak over the pre-war history of the SAA.
For decades, the SAA had 2 primary tasks. Firstly, the SAA needed to provide internal safety for the Assad government. Secondly, the solid soil forces needed to live able to acquit both offensive too defensive warfare against the State of Israel.
It was the latter trouble that arguably most influenced the aspects of the SAA, too focused heavily on obtaining large numbers of tanks, armoured personnel carriers (APCs), too infantry anti-tank weapons (mostly onetime Soviet RPGs too anti-tank guided missiles). Due to the fearfulness of an Israeli attack, the SAA’s arsenal was spread over a large issue of military machine bases across Syria’s governorates. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 disproportionate issue of those bases were established inwards the Damascus too Daraa governorates, which are situated unopen to the Golan Heights which take keep been occupied past times State of Israel since the 1967 Six Day War. For to a greater extent than information, the “The Syrian Army: Doctrinal Order of Battle” study past times the Institute for the Study of War is an splendid report.
At the start of the Syrian Civil War inwards 2011, the SAA had some the next issue of armoured tracked vehicles (all numbers mentioned are approximate numbers):
TanksT-55: 2,000
T-62: 1,000
T-72: 1,500
Armoured Personnel CarriersBMP-1: 2,000
BMP-2: 1,00
Support Armoured VehiclesBVP-1 AMB-S: 100
ZSU-23-4 “Shilka”: 400
armoured recovery vehicles: 130
Self-Propelled Artillery2S1 Gvozdika: 300
2S3 Akatsiya: 100
Note: The numbers of pre-war SAA armoured tracked vehicles should live regarded equally optimistic estimates. Some armoured vehicles were lost inwards past times decades without beingness accounted for, piece many others were non operational (or fifty-fifty beyond repair) at the start of the Syrian Civil War due to beingness inwards a long-term storage alongside minimal or no maintenance.
Later, the SAA obtained dozens of MT-LB APCs too T-90 tanks from the Russian Federation. The T-90s were firstly supplied inwards belatedly 2015.
Source unknown. Composite icon firstly posted past times @WorldOnAlert.
On paper, the SAA also has other types of armoured vehicles: the BTR serial of APCS, the T-34/D-30 self-propelled artillery, too other armoured tracked vehicles. However, they are mostly extremely obsolete too thus alongside minimal combat value; most of them are probable to take keep been scrapped or retired from service many years agone – at best some mightiness soundless live parked at checkpoints inwards Syrian authorities controlled areas. This article is thus express to the types of vehicles that are actively beingness used past times the SAA inwards the Syrian Civil War.
Collecting Visual Evidence
As most of Bellingcat’s readers are probable aware, YouTube too other video too photograph hosting websites take keep many been deleting much footage related to the Syrian Civil War, this equally component subdivision of their travail to demonstrate that they are fighting extremists fabric on their servers. Between faux positives too malicious role of reporting content past times supporters of all sides of Syrian Civil War, this has resulted inwards many photos too videos beingness lost forever. 
Nevertheless, YouTube is soundless the primary root of visual evidence that has been collected for this database. The writer has archived footage from the Syrian Civil War since Spring 2015, mostly focused on documenting rebel ATGM use.
Another of import root information has been the Lost Armour website, which piece of cake to role too form out information though many of its root link refer to dead YouTube links. However, some Syrian authorities armour losses are missing on the website.
All of this too other sources take keep resulted inwards an archive worth of 102 gigabytes of information inwards 3,853 files, 85% of which are videos exceeding 100 hours of state of war footage.
As mentioned above, this article only includes losses for which at that spot is visual evidence. For that reason, at that spot may live losses that are non counted due to vehicles that could non live identified.
The term ‘losses’ refer to both heavily damaged too destroyed vehicles, too also to captured vehicles.
In example footage did non take keep plenty particular to reliably determine the exact type of tank, it is referred to equally “unknown type of tank“.
Since the SAA operates only a relatively small-scale issue of BMP-2s too BVP-1 AMB-S (the SAA had about 100 of each earlier the Syrian Civil War started) too BMP-2s rarely look exterior of Damascus governorate, they take keep been counted equally a BMP-1 unless at that spot was a positive ID for a BMP vehicle.
Several measures take keep been taken to avoid double counting, such equally comparison footage of captured military machine bases, too counting vehicles which were captured or destroyed operated past times opposition forces, the so-called Islamic State (IS) or the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Since the SAA rarely captures intact armoured vehicles from its enemies, tracking such incidents has non been included. It is also a hard trouble to gain farther information nigh the SAA vehicles that were repaired. The issue is probable to live relatively depression since satellite photos of the army’s primary facility for overhaul or major repair of armoured vehicles shows niggling to no activity.
Having discussed the methodology, the SAA’s vehicle losses volition at i time live presented too discussed per year.
Armour Losses inwards 2011
During the firstly months of the Syrian uprising, the heavy violence was mostly one-sided, namely coming from the Syrian authorities shooting at protestors. Gradually, however, due to solid soil forces defectors getting organised inwards armed resistance, they started targeting — too destroying — less protected armoured vehicles, mostly BMP-1s.
An opposition militant targets a BMP alongside an RPG inwards the Homs governorate on Dec 13, 2011.
In 2011, a full of twenty armoured vehicles of the SAA were lost.
Armour Losses inwards 2012
In 2012, at that spot was a lot of travail to halt the fighting which resulted inwards a ceasefire. Although the truce did non concur inwards many place, it did cut down overall violence too thus also a lull inwards SAA armour losses. This flow of relative calm lasted until early on May 2012 when Bayda too Baniyas massacres happened, at which betoken opposition forces decided to abandon the ceasefire too started serial of attacks at regime positions, which resulted inwards a massive increment inwards losses of armoured vehicles to staggering average of seventy armoured vehicles per month.
Reason for such a high charge per unit of measurement of losses despite the fact that rebels were only lightly armed (main weapons against armoured vehicles were RPGs too IEDs and/or mines) was a combination of wretched tacts of the SAA , rebels making pregnant preparations for attacks on vulnerable points during the ceasefire too fact that at that fourth dimension frontlines were inwards most places non yet established — giving rebels chemical element of surprise inwards most attacks. As a result, the Syrian authorities gave upward some of the indefensible territories which inwards plough helped cut down losses to “only” 30-50 per month.
Two ZSU-23-4 Shilkas captured past times opposition forces inwards the Daraa governorate on Dec 16, 2013.
In 2012, a full of 393 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. 
Armour Losses inwards 2013
In 2013, frontlines gradually solidified. Attempt to capture terrain required amend organisation which slightly favoured the Syrian authorities alongside a unified command of its forces, albeit levels of corruption.
At the same time, opposition forces gained some experienced too captured a substantial amount of ATGMs, which allowed them to overrun many poorly defended SAA bases. Some rebel groups began operating armoured vehicles equally well, non rarely captured inwards urban areas where the Syrian authorities had sent armoured vehicles into rebel-held territory alongside minimal infantry support. This resulted inwards substantial losses.
A destroyed T-72 inwards Qaboun, Damascus, on August 6, 2013.
In 2013, a full of 435 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. 
Armour Losses inwards 2014
2014 started alongside large-scale fighting betwixt opposition forces too the Islamic State (IS) group. This initially diverted a lot of manpower too firepower from the anti-government forces, resulting inwards a decrease of armour losses to about a dozen per month.
However, after the frontlines betwixt opposition forces too IS stabilised, the extremist’s grouping attending shifted towards countering Syrian authorities offensives too their isolated bases which oft stored an incredible amount of weapons too ammo.
In July too August of 2014, IS overran several authorities bases inwards the Raqqa governorate, including the Brigade 93 base of operations where it captured over a double dozen of T-55 tanks. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 slightly smaller issue of armoured vehicles were afterwards taken over past times IS equally it recaptured the Shaer gas patch inwards Oct of that same year.
At to the lowest degree 4 T-55 tanks captured past times the so-called Islamic State when the grouping took over the Syrian Arab Army’s 93 Brigade base of operations inwards the Raqqa governorate. Photo published past times @w_alraqqa on August 7, 2014.
In December, opposition forces launched a major laid on inwards the Idlib governorate which resulated inwards the autumn of the government’s Wadi Deif base of operations too the loss of almost xxx armoured vehicles.
Two captured T-62 tanks past times opposition forces at the Wadi Deif base of operations inwards the Idlib governorate on Dec 15, 2014.
One of the most effective weapons against regime armoured vehicles were ATGMs but until 2014 rebels had received only a small-scale issue of them from external sources too had to rely on capturing them from authorities positions. (These positions almost e'er contained agency to a greater extent than weapons too ammunition than the defenders could reasonably use, fifty-fifty if they were trained to role that equipment.)
This relative scarcity of ATGMs began to modify inwards the boundary of 2014, when the U.S. of A. of America allowed its allies (mostly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, too Jordan) to start supplying TOW ATGMs to selected rebel groups nether the Timber Sycamore programme. Specifically the TOW 2A was supplied, a model optimised to bargain alongside tanks that are using reactive armour.
One of the atmospheric condition for getting novel TOW missiles was to provide video evidence of their use; an anti-proliferation stair out alongside the goal of preventing ATGMs from ending upward alongside extremist armed groups. Hence, many TOW ATGMs strikes were uploaded to YouTube past times the vetted groups, which made tracking SAA armour losses considerably easier. The issue of supplied TOW ATGMs gradually increased equally to a greater extent than rebel groups were approved to acquire them too to a greater extent than crews finished training.
Abu Hamza, at the fourth dimension alongside Free Syrian Army’s 1st Coastal Division, operating a TOW inwards early on 2015. Famed for his skills inwards operating the BGM-71 TOW.
A BVP-1 AMB-S captured past times opposition forces inwards the Daraa governorate on Feb 1, 2014. Source.
A destroyed T-71 close Dear al-Adas inwards the Daraa governorate on Oct 1, 2014. Source.
In 2014, a full of 294 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. 
Armour Losses inwards 2015
During the firstly nine months of 2015, Syrian authorities forces seriously struggled to find the first after substantial losses inwards the minute one-half of 2014.
Starting inwards belatedly February, opposition forces combined their strenghth into a powerful alliance that came to live known equally the Army of Conquest too launched a major, well-planned offensive inwards the Idlib governorate. The offensive was supported alongside a pregnant amount of external weapons too ammunition, particularly TOW ATGMs. The latter were crucial inwards defeating the government’s tank-heavy counter-attacks.
In belatedly April, rebels besieged about 250 authorities troops inwards the Jisr al-Shugour hospital, pressing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to proceed national goggle box promising to elevator the siege. Despite moving a large issue of troops too heavy weapons – mostly from eastern Homs – into the area, all authorities attempts to elevator the siege failed. This was partly due to the provenance of the TOWs inwards an ideal terrain for ATGMs: forested hills rising high higher upward the patch which authorities forces had to role to gain the hospital. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 breakout travail resulted inwards the expiry of almost 85% of authorities forces.
View on the Ghab patch from a nearby hill. The villages of Ghaniyah, Kufayr, Frikka, too Al-Sirmaniyah are clearly visible. Source: Eyad Alhosain.
Note: Armour losses inwards Idlib were quite serious, but a lot of visual evidence is missing because it is about this fourth dimension that YouTube starts deleting videos too fifty-fifty banning whole channels. Due to this armour loss count is significantly lower than it would otherwise be.
Intense fighting inwards southern Idlib has drawn a large issue of remaining authorities “elite” mechanised units (most of the troops on both sides were practically unusable for offensives too “elite” units on all sides of Syrian Civil War would at best live seen equally average troops inwards competent army) which left expanse of eastern Homs governorate vulnerable too IS exploited this province of affairs alongside what was initially merely a raid that due to unexpected success when fighting really poorly trained regime troops was reinforced too turned into a existent offensive that captured Sukna, Palmyra too oil/gas fields inwards that area. 
This has give-up the ghost a depression betoken for the Syrian authorities forces, which after these defeats controlled less than 20% of Syrian Arab Republic too faced the prospect of rebels beingness able to gain firepower superiority at to the lowest degree inwards some areas. While the authorities was soundless inwards command of many major urban areas, IS was posing a serious run a jeopardy to eastern Homs area, piece rebels were making preparations for a large offensive which would seek to repeat Idlib scenario too capture Hama urban amount too large component subdivision of Hama governorate – which would also cutting off regime forces inwards Aleppo too seat regimes stronghold Latakia inwards danger.
Shortly after this, Syria’s allies Russian Federation too Islamic Republic of Iran decided to come upward to the help. Russian Federation moved dozens of planes too helicopters to the airbase inwards Latakia too Islamic Republic of Iran moved increasing numbers of military machine advisors, equally good equally Iraqi too Afghani proxy forces equally good equally Hezbollah reinforcements. into Syrian Arab Republic to stabilise the situation. Emboldened past times this increment inwards support, the SAA started a major offensive to retake northern Hama too advance into the Idlib governorate inwards Oct 2015. This resulted inwards a major battle against rebels who used about 140 ATGMs inwards that calendar month alone, inflicting large losses on regime armoured units too regime fifty-fifty lost some territory inwards northern Hama. But rebels meanwhile took serious losses from Russian Air Force (RuAF) airstrikes which forced them to abandon large-scale offensive inwards Hama.
In 2015, a full of 291 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. It is of import to take keep into line of piece of job organisation human relationship that a disproportionate issue of visual evidence from this twelvemonth was lost. 
Armour Losses inwards 2016
In 2016, thank yous to unusual reinforcements provided past times Iran, air back upward from Russia, too small-scale shipments of modern T-72 variants too T-90 tanks (And afterwards larger shipments of T-62Ms too BMPs), the Syrian authorities started gaining the upper paw inwards the Syrian Civil War.
However, oft when the SAA started an offensive inwards i place, it was inwards danger of losing solid soil elsewhere – fifty-fifty alongside air back upward of the Russian Air Force (RuAF). Losses were also inflicted upon the SAA past times both rebel ATGM hits too IS manoeuvring tactics inwards the desert areas.
An RPG hitting on BMP-1 inwards northern Aleppo governorate on Apr 5, 2016.
To take keep wages of firepower, the Syrian authorities forces launched a serial of offensives to link upward alongside besieged Shia dominated towns inwards northern Aleppo, to recapture Palmyra, and, later, to besiege rebel-held component subdivision of Aleppo city. Just similar inwards previous battles, the authorities forces depended on sheer firepower too a large issue of armoured vehicles leading mostly frontal assaults against prepared defences. Mostly because of RuAF which was slow but sure enough successful, but at a high cost to attacking units.
When authorities forces was distracted inwards i place, rebels repeatedly tried to find the first past times launching offensives inwards areas that were lacking troops. In spring, piece fighting about Palmyra, rebels attacked northern Hama too piece authorities reinforcements together alongside RuAF reversed rebel gains, they lost dozens of armoured vehicles inwards a fairly curt amount of time.
Something similar was repeated inwards belatedly summertime when authorities forces weakened other fronts inwards lodge to concentrate plenty forces to cutting off rebel component subdivision of Aleppo too besiege it. Shortly after this was achieved regime was surprised past times large rebel offensive inwards the southern component subdivision of Aleppo urban amount which for several weeks lifted regimes siege of Aleppo too cutting off regime component subdivision of Aleppo from supplies.
While reversing this rebel gain (which also cost regime pregnant amount of troops too armoured vehicles, rebels inwards northern Hama launched some other onslaught too came really unopen to the urban amount of Hama itself. While all these rebel offensives were ultimately defeated they showed how reliant is regime on RuAF air back upward too how weak it is fifty-fifty when faced 2 alongside enemies – i of which was bombed nonstop past times RuAF too the other i past times a US Air Force (USAF).
Tanks captured past times Islamic State militants inwards Palmyra on Dec 11, 2016.
When past times the terminate of the twelvemonth defences of rebel-held Aleppo started breaking downward due to huge firepower provided past times RuAF too Russian artillery combined alongside Syrian authorities solid soil forces, IS took the chance too swiftly defeated regime forces about Palmyra too captured the town. When regime forces run away they left behind about 2 dozen tanks which IS captured— most of which USAF before long destroyed.
In 2016, a full of 321 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. 
Armour Losses inwards 2017
By early on 2017, the first was firmly inwards hands of the Syrian authorities equally the IS militants were faced alongside a multi-front state of war too constantly nether the threat of airstrikes of a dozen unusual countries, too opposition forces equally good but too then past times RuAF. However, both opposition groups equally good equally IS were able to acquit only curt offensives, which wound authorities forces but could non halt their advance.
Also, inwards early on 2017, the render of TOW ATGMs significantly slowed downward too a few months afterwards aforementioned Timber Sycamore programme was terminated. While both rebels too IS were soundless able to exact a pregnant cost for authorities advances inwards their territory, they were only able to dull downward this advance – rarely stopping or reversing it for longer than a few week.
Rebels were also significantly damaged past times their infighting, which flared upward whatsoever fourth dimension they weren’t nether pressure level from the regime.
A T-90 destroyed past times the so-called Islamic State inwards Mayadeen on Nov 16, 2017. The photograph was published past times the group’s media wing.
A T-90 destroyed past times the so-called Islamic State inwards Mayadeen on Nov 16, 2017. The photograph was published past times the group’s media wing.
In 2017, a full of 243 armoured vehicles losses of the SAA were documented. 
Armour Losses inwards 2018
2018 is patch far from over too the same is probable truthful for the Syrian Civil War.
While the Syrian authorities is crushing the eastern Ghouta steal due west of Damascus too negotiating probable give upward of the northern Hom’s pocket, at that spot is soundless plenty of chance for conflict betwixt the authorities too the SDF. In the east, remnants of IS are also soundless a threat too fate, piece the fate of opposition-held Idlib too southern Daraa is soundless undecided.
Due to a degraded strength of opponents to the Syrian government, its visually confirmed armour losses inwards past times months take keep non been equally expected. This is also partly due to the fact that obtaining footage of armour losses is harder to obtain at i time that the Syrian authorities forces are regaining territory.
A destroyed T-72 close eastern Ghouta, Damascus governorate, on March 4, 2018.
The electrical flow count of visually confirmed SAA losses of armoured vehicles inwards 2018 is 40. 
Summary too Analysis
A full of at to the lowest degree 2,037 armoured vehicles of the Syrian authorities take keep been destroyed since the start of the Syrian Civil War, extensive analysis of visual footage shows.
When i considers that many to a greater extent than potential losses lack visual evidence, the actual issue of losses for the SAA may live much higher. This is also because the issue of armoured tracked vehicles at the get-go of the conflict were probable to live an overestimate of the actual number. Besides, Russian Federation shipped a issue of its ain T-62Ms to Syria. The sixth largest tank fleet inwards the the world has arguably been destroyed.
A issue of destroyed armoured tracked vehicles (1x T-72, 4x BMP-1, 1x BVP-1 AMB-S) close Adra, Damascus, on Feb 27, 2013.
Arguably, several reasons tin lavatory live mentioned why the Syrian armed forces lost so many armoured vehicles during the course of didactics of the ongoing Syrian Civil War. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few tin lavatory live particularly highlighted, the writer believes, such equally the civil state of war inwards general, large quantities of weapons too ammo beingness stored inwards indefensible locations combined alongside lack of preparations to destroy weapons too ammo inwards example of retreat, incompetence of solid soil forces components, which was fueled past times officeholder promotions beingness driven past times bribes too percieved loyalty, instead of competence, the inability or unwillingness to larn from previous costly mistakes, the lack of proper combined arms training, obsolete equipment, too a proliferation of powerful anti-tank weapons.
The writer would similar to give thank yous all my friends for their invaluable help, alongside special thank yous to @MENA_Conflict, @oryxspioenkop, @QalaatAlMudiq, @adambrayne7, @SCW_Nuggie, @DLAMNscw, @Mr_Ghostly too the whole Bellingcat Investigation Team.
Lastly, the writer would similar to give thank yous the ‘SFM’ grouping (you know who yous are) for sharing working links to footage that was probable to live rapidly removed from world websites.
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