JEFFREY FRANKEL
It is possible that novel technologies are non simply doing less to boost productivity than past times innovations. They may genuinely withdraw keep negative side effects that undermine productivity growth, together with that bring down our wellbeing inwards other ways equally well. CAMBRIDGE – In recent years, productivity growth inwards developed economies has been stagnating. The most prominent explanations of this tendency involve technology. Technological progress is supposed to increase economies’ productivity together with potential growth. So what’s going on? The world’s leading thinkers together with policymakers examine what’s come upwards apart inwards the past times year, together with anticipate what volition define the twelvemonth ahead. Harvard’s Martin Feldstein has argued persuasively that productivity growth is genuinely higher than nosotros realize, because regime statistics “grossly understate the value of improvements inwards the lineament of existing goods together with services” together with “don’t fifty-fifty endeavour to mensurate the total contribution,” of novel goods together with services. Over time, he asserts, these touchstone errors are belike becoming to a greater extent than important.
Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon is less optimistic. He has argued – besides persuasively – that today’s innovations inwards areas similar information together with communications engineering scientific discipline (ICT) cannot last expected to withdraw keep equally large an economical reward equally those of the past, such equally electricity together with the automobile.
But it’s possible that ICT together with other novel technologies are non simply doing less to boost productivity than past times innovations; they may genuinely withdraw keep some negative side effects that undermine productivity together with gross domestic product growth. One quest non last a modern-day Luddite to admit the potential productivity pitfalls of technological innovation.
The kickoff powerfulness appear obvious: technological disruption is, well, disruptive. It demands that people larn novel skills, arrange to novel systems, together with modify their behavior. While a novel iteration of calculator software or hardware may offering to a greater extent than capacity, efficiency, or performance, those advantages are at to the lowest degree partly offset past times the fourth dimension users withdraw keep to pass learning to purpose it. And glitches oftentimes bedevil the transition.2
The fast-changing nature of today’s digital technologies besides raises security challenges. Spam, viruses, cyberattacks, together with other kinds of security breaches tin impose major costs on businesses together with households. ![]()
Then in that place is the touching that connectivity has on our daily lives, including our powerfulness to run together with learn. Non-work emails, social media, Internet videos, together with videogames tin easily distract employees, offsetting at to the lowest degree some of the productivity-raising potential of that same connectivity. Such disadvantages may croak fifty-fifty to a greater extent than pronounced when workers telecommute.
Similarly, the smart phone has shaped the minds of immature people, who barely recollect what it was similar earlier addictive activities – from video games to social media – were constantly at their fingertips. According to one recent study, recreational calculator activities partly explicate a reject inwards labor provide amidst men ages 21 to 30. Moreover, research shows that laptops inwards the classroom slow pupil learning, fifty-fifty when used to take notes, rather than surf the web.
Moreover, smart phones undermine physical security inwards some contexts. In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports that 3,477 people were killed together with 391,000 were injured inwards motor vehicle crashes involving distracted drivers inwards 2015, amongst texting beingness the biggest culprit, especially amidst immature people.
Digital currencies similar Bitcoin withdraw keep besides together with then far failed to alive upwards to the hypesurrounding them. Far from beingness to a greater extent than efficient equally a way of payment or shop of value than conventional money, cryptocurrencies appear to encourage the diversion of resources away from productive uses. They besides terms the environment, owing to the energy-intensive “mining” process, piece the total anonymity they offering undermines police enforcement.
Beyond novel technologies’ straightaway together with indirect negative effects on productivity, in that place is a opportunity that they are undermining people’s lineament of life. Few people withdraw keep positive feelings about, say, the automatic telephone calls that withdraw keep come upwards to plague many of our lives.
Then in that place is the ever-present “fake news” problem. The advent of digital “new media” was 1 time heralded equally a democratizing tendency that would give ordinary people a mensurate of command over the “air waves,” at the expense of large companies or established institutions. But it has lately croak apparent that “democratizing” information may non genuinely last goodness for democracy. For example, fake news has been found to spread faster on Twitter than truthful news. This has non exclusively made citizens less informed inwards many cases; it has besides enabled world figures – most notably, US President Donald Trump – to dismiss the truth equally “fake.”
And these are simply the downsides of information technology. Other technological innovations amongst major obvious drawbacks include opiate painkillers together with increasingly advanced weaponry.
To last clear, I am non suggesting that the cyberspace effects of recent technological advances are negative. On the contrary, many withdraw keep delivered huge benefits, together with that volition belike croak on to last the case.
Technologies may withdraw keep productivity-raising potential that is all the same to last tapped. Historians similar Paul David together with engineering scientific discipline experts similar Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, together with Chad Syverson debate that it has e'er taken fourth dimension for major breakthroughs (like the steam engine, electricity, or the automobile) to yield cyberspace economical gains, because businesses, buildings, together with infrastructure quest to last re-configured. Presumably the same volition come about amongst recent technologies.
But this is non a ground to ignore the negative consequences of novel innovations. As a grouping of Silicon Valley technologists has warned, “Technology is hijacking our minds together with society.” We must withdraw keep dorsum control, ensuring that nosotros practise non simply brand our basis “smarter,” but besides brand certain nosotros are smart most how nosotros purpose it.
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