By Dr Subhash Kapila
India together with its unusual policy establishment’s most confusing conundrum 1 time once to a greater extent than is to clearly define whether inwards the larger together with long-range perspective mainland People's Republic of China is India’s ‘Friend or Foe’? India’s lack of discerning this distinction makes it ecstatically saltation at every crumb of feigned friendship that mainland People's Republic of China spasmodically keeps throwing at India India’s confused mainland People's Republic of China Policy Conundrum has 1 time once to a greater extent than surfaced late when media reports cry for that Indian Foreign Secretary Gokhale sent an advisory banknote to the Cabinet Secretary that Indian leaders together with officials should non attend HH The Dalai Lama’s ‘Thank Yu India’ resultant inwards Delhi out of sensitivity for China’s stances on Tibet.
Taking the hint the Central Tibetan Administration relocated this resultant to Dharamsala. Is it non a compassion that Bharat nether the dynamic leadership of PM Modi is 1 time once to a greater extent than locomote perceptionaly viewed inwards Asian capitals as kow-towing to Chinese pressures or political coercion? Is that the prototype that Bharat wishes to projection at a fourth dimension when the global community is acknowledging Bharat as an Emerged Power?
Ironic is the fact that PM Modi who won honour for standing upwards to mainland People's Republic of China inwards the Dkalam Standoff final yr together with where mainland People's Republic of China blinked should directly teach a political party to locomote seen as kow-towing to China. Further ironic is the fact that fifty-fifty a confirmed China-apologist similar former PM Nehru defied mainland People's Republic of China past times giving political asylum to HH Dalai Lama together with Tibetans inwards 1959 together with directly nosotros take away hold inwards 2018 PM Modi’s Foreign Secretary issuing an company which amounts to HH Dalai Lama together with Tibetans beingness made sacrificial goats to appease China.
In March 2018, in that place are no cogent mitigating factors that take away hold arisen to prompt this abrupt alter of India’s attitudes together with generate positive readings on mainland People's Republic of China other than the personal assessment of India’s novel Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale. His postings inwards Hong Kong, Taipei together with inwards Beijing together with beingness a fluent Standard Mandarin speaker may take away hold made him a China-specialist but non necessarily an accurate diviner of China’s policy attitudes towards India.
Divining China’s hostile attitudes cannot locomote the sole save of India’s top-most unusual policy official. India’s nett assessments on mainland People's Republic of China since 1962 take away hold consistently confirmed that the mainland People's Republic of China Threat to Bharat is a ‘Live Threat’ together with which inwards 2018 stands multiplied manifold.
China has non visibly reset its Southern Asia policies to contain India’s strategic sensitivities. On the contrary, mainland People's Republic of China has vigorously pursued “Anti-India” policies even out since Chinese President Xi Jinping has assumed his component subdivision amongst monarchical contours.
Since 2014, China’s Comprehensive Military Threat directly stands out amongst the ‘Military Threat’ element becoming to a greater extent than prominent, strong together with amongst sharper edges. At such a juncture, Bharat cannot afford the luxury of political outreaches to mainland People's Republic of China which carries the odor of submitting together with capitulating to the mainland People's Republic of China Threat.
Since the military machine element of the mainland People's Republic of China Threat to Bharat predominates the political together with economical threat, incumbent thence is the imperative that China-intentions reading inwards Bharat emerge as a articulation assessment past times India’s Feign Office together with the Indian Armed Forces hierarchy charged amongst defending India’s sovereignty. This manifestly has non taken house as the Indian military machine hierarchy going past times Dokalam together with post- Dokalam developments would non take away hold agreed to a abrupt deference to China’s sensitivities together with sure non on Tibet-related issues.
The points that seem to locomote overlooked inwards Indian official discourses on mainland People's Republic of China revolve to a greater extent than or less the next salient factors that stood highlighted inwards my Book “China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives” (2015) as follows:
China-India Military Confrontation ongoing inwards the21st Century is no longer express to China’s disputing India’s borders amongst mainland People's Republic of China Occupied Tibet. It directly stands transformed into a tearing ‘geopolitical power-play together with tussle’ inwards which mainland People's Republic of China has exhibited no-holds barred postures against India.
China’s hegemonistic designs on Asia are a precursor to its ultimate Grand Strategy of attaining “Strategic Equivalence amongst the United States”. What stands inwards betwixt are the 2 contending Asian major powers of Bharat together with Nihon amongst whom mainland People's Republic of China has a history of conflictual record.
China is unwilling to concede whatever strategic infinite inwards Asia to either Bharat or Japan.
Both inwards the geopolitical might tussle together with the decades-old border confrontation, the Core Issue is Tibet. In fact my real starting fourth dimension Chapter inwards the Book refers to “Tibet is India’s Core Issue inwards China-India Military Confrontation”
India today is inwards the unique seat of playing both the “India Card” together with so also the “Tibet Card” against China, if alone the Indian political leaders together with its unusual policy institution exercise non lapse into Nehruvian timidity together with lack of ‘political will’ role might together with residual of might strategies to ward of the mainland People's Republic of China Threat.
In the instant discussion, what is at stake due to faulty perceptions of the Indian unusual policy institution is Bharat throwing away its most strong together with strong “Tibet Card” amongst which mainland People's Republic of China is sick at ease for decades. In fact, India’s ‘Tibet Card’ is the strongest leverage that Bharat has over China.
China’s deal on mainland People's Republic of China Occupied Tibet cannot locomote eternal together with mainland People's Republic of China fears that similar inwards 2008 Tibet could erupt into serious together with violent protests together with disturbances linked amongst whatever hereafter demise of HH The Dalai Lama. mainland People's Republic of China has made it abundantly clear that it is mainland People's Republic of China which volition appoint the adjacent Dalai Lama fearing that the large Tibetans population inwards Bharat together with inwards the West would non convey the Chinese-foisted selection of Dalai Lama.
The other pertinent inquiry that arises contextually is that does it devolve on Bharat alone to display regard for China’s sensitivities on the Tibet number or other contentious issues that dissever China-India relationship? Has mainland People's Republic of China always displayed such matching sensitivities to India’s concerns?
India together with its unusual policy institution should locomote inwards no uncertainty virtually China’s intentions virtually down-sizing Bharat inwards the perceptions inwards Asian capitals which are currently looking upwards to Bharat to emerge as the nett provider of regional safety against an uncontrollable China.
In 2018, therefore, the geopolitical power-play basically boils downward to managing perceptions inwards Asia capitals of whether Bharat tin give the axe outgrow its Non Alignment shibboleths or the attitudinal policy inclinations of its decision-making institution to seek the slow means out of complex challenges similar the ongoing China-India military machine Confrontation beingness brought to a caput 1 time once to a greater extent than inwards mid-2017 over the Dokalam Standoff;
While mainland People's Republic of China is engaged inwards an uninterrupted ‘Containment of Bharat “post-1962, the Indian unusual policy establishment’s remnants of the former Non Alignment Gladiators are succumbing to China’s spurious overtures for peace together with friendship amongst India. Have nosotros non seen this form out of Chinese strategic moves before inwards the center of the final decade?
Once 1 time to a greater extent than recently, the Chinese Foreign Minister asserted that mainland People's Republic of China together with Bharat take away hold no selection but that “to tango together “and that fifty-fifty the tall Himalayas cannot forestall China-India friendship.
If mainland People's Republic of China had genuine feelings for India’s friendship together with then what was the take away for mainland People's Republic of China to indulge inwards ‘Containment of India’ inwards the final decade politically, strategically together with militarily? Why the forging of the China-Pakistan Military Axis? Why the mainland People's Republic of China Islamic Republic of Pakistan Economic Corridor as explained inwards my Book of outflanking India’s Northern together with Western defensive military machine deployments? Why the repeated Vetoes past times mainland People's Republic of China inwards the United Nation to halt Pakistan’s top Islamic Jihadi terrorist leaders as ‘global terrorists’. Why the Dokalam Military Standoff inwards an former peaceful sector? Why China’s reinforcing its Dokalam military machine presence into strong permanent military machine fortifications?
The listing is endless together with India’s unusual policy institution advocating peaceful relations amongst mainland People's Republic of China take away hold no logical together with convincing answers to provide.
Perceptionaly, I strongly experience together with would suggest that India’s unusual policy institution should non locomote headed past times Chinese Standard Mandarin speaking China-hands who seem to endure from the Stockholm Syndrome. Since India’s political leaders over-rely on them inwards the false belief that amongst their Standard Mandarin noesis they tin give the axe decipher Chinese leaders’ intentions, India’s China-policy becomes a captive to erroneous divinations.
India has no argue to kow-tow to mainland People's Republic of China inwards 2018 when it is globally beingness perceived as an Emerged Power, something distasteful together with unacceptable to the Chinese leadership. Does Bharat nether misperceived advisories of its unusual policy institution wishing to croak into a downslide together with locomote seen lapsing into the Nehruvian mould of a timid together with powerless Asian behemoth.
The Indian political leadership cannot also locomote oblivious to Indian world thought which perceives mainland People's Republic of China as an ‘Enemy State” continuously engaged inwards down-sizing Bharat together with cavorting amongst India’s other confirmed enemy-state that is Pakistan.
The Indian Government together with nor its policy apparatus has advanced convincing reasons for Bharat all of a abrupt resetting its relations amongst mainland People's Republic of China together with this leads to suspicions.. One hopes non that the Modi Government has non chickened –out fearing that a repeat of the Dokalam Standoff inwards 2018 0r2019 past times mainland People's Republic of China may discovery Bharat militarily disadvantaged together with that as good inwards the run-up to 2019 General Elections.
India must take away hold a running continuity inwards its mainland People's Republic of China policy formulations viewing the larger moving-picture present together with taking long-range geopolitical perspectives as the lodestars. In such perspectives mainland People's Republic of China continues to figure as India’s most strong together with unsafe Threat Number One.
While peace together with dialogues amongst mainland People's Republic of China are eminently desirable together with should locomote pursued amongst vigour it is as incumbent on India’s political leadership that Bharat pursues amongst vigour India’s ‘War Preparedness’ to fighting a Two Front War probable to locomote foisted on Bharat past times the combined forcefulness of mainland People's Republic of China together with Pakistan.
The substitution regulation that Bharat must adhere to is that India’s mainland People's Republic of China Policy does non teach Chamberlainisque contours of peace at whatever toll amongst China. The instant directive past times Foreign Secretary smacks of the same. That danger lurks when Indian unusual policy is divorced from military machine assessments of its military machine planners.
Indian unusual policy establishment’s confused conundrum would fade away the real minute that India’s unusual policy planners exercise non succumb to impulsively pick upwards spurious crumbs of friendship thrown past times mainland People's Republic of China sparingly confident inwards the belief that Bharat would grovel together with kow-tow to China. The Indian Foreign Office must locomote clear that mainland People's Republic of China is perceptively viewed largely inwards Bharat as Enemy Number One past times its demonstrated actions against India.
How tin give the axe the Foreign Office afford to take away hold dissimilar perceptions on mainland People's Republic of China other than what figures inwards Official Ministry of Defence documents together with the accurate readings of mainland People's Republic of China of the Indian military machine hierarchy?
Concluding, the next observations take away to locomote re-asserted:
India’s unusual policy establishment’s confused policy conundrum arises from its inability to recognise that the mainland People's Republic of China Threat to Bharat is a ‘Live Threat’ increasing inwards size together with magnitude each passing day.
India’s ‘China Threat’ should never locomote under-played or de-emphasised past times whatever organ of the Indian Government.
China has non made whatever sustained efforts to reset its Southern Asia policy to abide by India’s strategic sensitivities. Why the abrupt urge of India’s unusual policy institution to abide by China’s strategic sensitivities on Tibet?
India cannot afford to throw away its ‘Tibet Card’ to sense of humor China’s strategic sensitivities
India cannot afford to display divided perceptions on mainland People's Republic of China betwixt its Foreign Office together with its Armed Forces hierarchy as far as the mainland People's Republic of China Threat to Bharat is concerned In the ultimate exam when mainland People's Republic of China repeatedly volition indulge inwards Military Stand-Offs amongst India, it is Indian Armed Forces who take away hold to neutralise China’s propensity for armed conflict amongst Bharat together with non India’s diplomats
Ironic would locomote the twenty-four lx minutes catamenia if Bharat nether PM Modi’s dynamism lapses into the Pre-1962 Syndrome of mainland People's Republic of China Appeasement together with COMPLACENCY inwards Defence Budget allocations leading to India’s LACK OF WAR PRPAREDNESS against the dual China=Pakistan Axis as visible inwards 2018.
Buat lebih berguna, kongsi:
