BY DAN DE LUCE
As U.S. ambassador to Islamic Republic of Pakistan to a greater extent than than a decade ago, Ryan Crocker spent much of his fourth dimension trying to convince the authorities inward Islamabad to accept activity against militants moving freely within the solid soil too plotting attacks on U.S. forces inward neighboring Afghanistan. In 2007, toward the destination of his three-year tenure, Crocker spoke amongst the caput of the Pakistani army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who explained why Islamabad was non laid upward to contrary course. The the States had a curt attending span, the full general said, according to Crocker. “How long are yous staying this time? Because yous come upward too yous go,” Kayani told Crocker. “If yous remember nosotros are going to plough the Taliban too Haqqanis too others into mortal enemies of ours too spotter yous walk out the door, yous are completely crazy. Are nosotros hedging our bets? You bet nosotros are.”
The ii men’s central captures the mutual frustration too misunderstanding that take away hold plagued relations betwixt Islamic Republic of Pakistan too the United States, nominal allies amongst trivial strategic mutual ground. Previous U.S. presidents tried too failed to persuade Islamic Republic of Pakistan to rein inward the Taliban too the Haqqani militants on the Afghan border. Now President Donald Trump faces the same challenge, too officials within his direction are debating how far to press Pakistan.
Despite a intermission of $1.3 billion inward U.S. armed services aid inward January, Islamic Republic of Pakistan has failed to accept decisive activity to fissure downwards on Afghan militants on its territory, either past times arresting known militants or restricting the menstruum of fighters too weapons across its border amongst Afghanistan, U.S. officials said. “What I would say is they’ve done the bare minimum to appear responsive to our requests,” a senior direction official told reporters this month.
Amid growing frustration on Capitol Hill, Trump’s deputies are weighing unprecedented political penalties on Islamabad for harboring Afghan militants waging state of war on the U.S.-backed authorities inward Afghanistan. The options nether consideration include revoking Pakistan’s status every bit a major non-NATO ally, permanently cutting off the U.S. armed services aid that was suspended ii months ago, too fifty-fifty imposing visa bans or other sanctions on individuals inward the Pakistani authorities deemed responsible for providing back upward to the militants.
Yet the Trump White House is at nowadays engaged inward an internal debate almost the tempo too scale of possible punitive steps against Pakistan, echoing arguments nether previous U.S. presidents. Some officials too armed services officers favor a difficult trace amongst Pakistan, maintaining that years of aid too accommodation take away hold produced trivial inward return. But other voices inward the direction worry almost alienating a nuclear-armed solid soil of 200 1 yard 1000 people bordering China.
The twenty-four hours of the month lastly calendar week of a fervent hawk every bit national security advisor, John Bolton, too the nomination of to a greater extent than or less other for secretarial assistant of state, Mike Pompeo, could contention the give-and-take inward favor of tougher measures against Islamabad.
The intermission of armed services aid inward Jan is non the showtime fourth dimension the the States has withheld security funding to Islamic Republic of Pakistan since the 9/11 attacks. But dissimilar previous administrations, Trump’s deputies are looking at permanently cutting off the annual menstruum of armed services aid this year, which could seat a strain on Pakistan’s defense strength budget too deprive it of coveted U.S. armed services hardware.
The White House is also weighing fifty-fifty to a greater extent than drastic measures to include visa bans or other punitive measures against private members of the Pakistani government, military, or ISI tidings service suspected of allowing the Taliban too Haqqani militants to operate from sanctuaries within Pakistan, electrical current too one-time officials told Foreign Policy. “We are prepared to do whatever is necessary to protect U.S. personnel too interests inward the region,” the senior direction official, who spoke on status of anonymity, told reporters lastly week.
If carried out, the combined measures would stand upward for a clear rebuke of Islamic Republic of Pakistan too signal the unraveling of an uneasy armed services alliance that was born during the Cold War too renewed inward the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
U.S. President George W. Bush speaks during a articulation press conference amongst Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf inward Washington on Sept. 22, 2006. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)
Former Presidents Barack Obama too George W. Bush also pressed Islamic Republic of Pakistan to accept activity against the Taliban too their Haqqani comrades but stopped curt of a full-blown confrontation. Under previous administrations, officials were reluctant to force also far, fearing Islamic Republic of Pakistan could sabotage whatsoever peace negotiation inward Afghanistan, cutting off provide lines to U.S.-led forces there, or that American pull per unit of measurement area would embolden jihadis seeking to seize command of the country’s nuclear weapons.
Two lethal attacks inward Kabul inward Jan claimed past times the Taliban, occurring alone days after the intermission of U.S. aid was announced too after a tweet past times Trump castigating Pakistan, take away hold added urgency to the debate. For critics of Islamabad, the attacks — including a suicide bombing that claimed the lives of 95 people — represented a familiar designing from years past: Washington threatens to punish Pakistan, too its proxies inward Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan retaliate.
The attacks were “ISI-directed retaliation,” 1 one-time CIA officeholder said.
The political climate for Islamic Republic of Pakistan on Capitol Hill — too inward other Western capitals — has also grown increasingly hostile. As late every bit 2009, members of Congress were laid upward to dorsum multiyear, multibillion-dollar commitments for security aid to Pakistan. But those days are over, every bit both parties take away hold run out of patience amongst Islamabad.
“Pakistan is at take away a opportunity of miscalculating the degree of frustration both inward Washington too other unusual governments,” said a senior State Department official.
“Pakistan is at take away a opportunity of miscalculating the degree of frustration both inward Washington too other unusual governments,” said a senior State Department official. “In the past, Islamic Republic of Pakistan has sought to accept the minimum activity required to placate U.S. concerns without fundamentally altering their policy too strategy,” said the official, who was non authorized to speak on the record.
In improver to unilateral steps, Washington lastly calendar month successfully lobbied an international money-laundering watchdog to house Islamic Republic of Pakistan on a terrorist financing watchlist. The motion laid off warning bells inward Islamabad, which had counted on China too Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to defeat the measure. Pakistan, however, denied it was giving shelter to militant leaders plotting attacks on U.S. forces too the Afghan government.
“There is today no organized presence of whatsoever Afghan Taliban or Haqqanis within Pakistan,” Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, the Pakistani ambassador to the United States, told FP inward an email.
“Pakistan remains committed to working amongst the the States to choose peace to Afghanistan. We do believe, however, that blaming allies does non serve our shared objectives of achieving lasting regional peace too stability,” Chaudhry said.
Western tidings agencies, however, insist that Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, has long served every bit a vital lifeline to the Afghan Taliban too their partners inward the Haqqani network. With arms, cash, too advice, the ISI helped the Taliban come upward to mightiness during Afghanistan’s civil state of war inward the 1990s. And after the Taliban regime was toppled amongst the U.S.-led invasion inward 2001, it maintained back upward for the militants’ insurgency against the internationally recognized authorities inward Kabul.
With a singular focus on archfoe India, Islamic Republic of Pakistan sees a friendly partner inward Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan every bit a way of countering Indian influence inward its backyard too providing “strategic depth” inward the lawsuit of an all-out war. While Islamabad denies that it lends whatsoever assistance to the militants, privately Pakistani tidings too armed services officers take away hold acknowledged their links to the Taliban every bit a hedge against the perceived threat posed past times India, one-time U.S. officials said.
Andrew Liepman, who worked for xxx years at the CIA too served every bit the deputy manager of the National Counterterrorism Center, said Islamic Republic of Pakistan provided invaluable aid inward hunting downwards al Qaeda leaders but was also behind the resurgence of insurgents attacking U.S. forces inward Afghanistan.
“The substantial progress nosotros made inward dismantling the al Qaeda network could non take away hold been accomplished without aid from ISI,” said Liepman, at nowadays a senior analyst at Rand Corp. “At the same time, bad things happened. Haqqani grew too became the most effective too lethal strength against us inward Afghanistan, amongst the forthwith assistance of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan government.”
In discussions amongst his Pakistani counterparts, at that topographic point was a “huge cloud inward the air,” he said. “There was an undercurrent — both sides distrusted the other pretty deeply.”
Some one-time diplomats worry that piling pull per unit of measurement area on Islamic Republic of Pakistan — through sanctions or fifty-fifty unilateral drone strikes against militants — could take away hold unintended consequences. Given its history amongst the Taliban, Islamic Republic of Pakistan could effectively wreck whatsoever prospect of peace talks. And amongst the country’s strategic place too nuclear arsenal, a confrontation could take away a opportunity a backlash past times extremists too fifty-fifty a nightmare scenario where jihadis larn concur of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
However, resentment of Islamic Republic of Pakistan tends to runs deep amid U.S. armed services too tidings officers who take away hold deployed to Afghanistan, including Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of U.S.-led forces inward Afghanistan.
Lisa Curtis, a senior U.S. official on the National Security Council helping to sort policy on Pakistan, has long argued for a to a greater extent than hawkish trace on the country. Before she took the job, Curtis co-authored a policy paper calling for stepping upward political pull per unit of measurement area on Pakistan, including suspending armed services aid. Her newspaper also proposed retaining the pick of unilateral armed services activity too drone strikes against militant leaders operating from security havens within the country.
A trivial over a twelvemonth ago, the Trump direction resumed CIA drone strikes on Afghan Taliban too Haqqani extremists inward Islamic Republic of Pakistan after a 10-month lull. The showtime raid struck a motorbike close the Afghan border, reportedly killing an Afghan Taliban leader. But the tempo has been sporadic, amongst 12 bombing raids since Trump took office, according to a tally past times the Long War Journal.
Under Obama, the drone strikes inward Pakistan, which targeted mainly al Qaeda leaders, reached a peak inward 2010 amongst an estimated 117 bombing raids. As al Qaeda’s meat leadership was weakened too dispersed, too every bit a large U.S. strength began to depict downwards inward Afghanistan, the strikes — which were carried out amongst Pakistan’s serenity cooperation — dwindled too thus tapered off completely inward his terminal months every bit president.
It remains unclear if Trump volition opt for to a greater extent than drone raids if Islamic Republic of Pakistan fails to clamp downwards on the militant sanctuaries. For the moment, the White House is laid upward to run across if political measures alteration Pakistan’s calculus, though at that topographic point is no clear timetable. The direction official who spoke to reporters before this calendar month did non specify how too when the the States would answer to Pakistan’s inaction.
As distrust betwixt Washington too Islamabad grows, America’s ties amongst Pakistan’s rival, India, maintain to warm. The the States sees Republic of Republic of India every bit a solid soil increasingly aligned amongst Washington’s goals too that shares its concerns almost China’s armed services buildup. The ii countries — 1 time at odds during the Cold War — take away hold stepped upward defense strength cooperation, too their militaries at nowadays concur numerous articulation exercises.
An outspoken critic of Pakistan’s military, Husain Haqqani, who served every bit the country’s ambassador to the the States from 2008 to 2011, portrays the U.S.-Pakistani human relationship every bit a dysfunctional too unsustainable matrimony inward his mass Magnificent Delusions. The ii countries take away hold never actually shared the same interests, Haqqani argues, too it’s fourth dimension to human face that harsh reality.
“The alliance amongst Islamic Republic of Pakistan no longer makes feel for the the States because it undercuts U.S. policy inward Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan every bit good every bit its endeavor to create a strategic human relationship amongst Republic of Republic of India against China,” Haqqani told FP. “It doesn’t brand feel for Islamic Republic of Pakistan either.”
Dan De Luce is Foreign Policy’s main national security correspondent. (@dandeluce)
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